Gallup, the country’s best-known Polling Firm, is once again Scaling Back on the Political Surveys that have made it so Famous.
Only a year after Gallup switched its Presidential Tracking Poll, the ever-present reading of the President’s Approval Rating, from Daily to Weekly, the Company will announce Friday that it Plans to Measure President Trump’s Job-Approval Rating only on a Monthly Basis. It's all part of what the Company calls its New, "more global perspective," which De-Emphasizes U.S. Politics.
It also includes a Leadership Change, with Mohamed Younis, who has focused more on Polling Outside the U.S. in nearly a Decade at Gallup, replacing Frank Newport as Editor in Chief. Newport has served in that Role since 1990.
"Gallup will discontinue almost all 'spot' polls in the U.S. — overnight polls, usually political, of immediate front-page interest — and we will reduce much of our coverage of the electorate, as it is well covered now by a plethora of polling organizations," said Jim Clifton, Gallup's Chairman and CEO, in a Statement. "Gallup's contribution will be deeper, long-trend dives into the most serious issues of the day worldwide, such as trust in governments, capitalism vs. socialism, and the future of work."
The Shifts are part of a Trend at Gallup, which already Scaled Back its Public Polling presence related to Politics. After struggling in the 2012 Presidential Election, Gallup consistently Understated then-President Obama’s Support, the Firm largely Ignored the 2016 Election, despite a Tradition of Prolific Horse-Race Polling.
Gallup has also been Systematically Pivoting away from its Public-Facing Surveys on National Issues, putting a greater Focus on its Consulting Business. Whereas Gallup’s Home Page once sent Readers to a Collection of Public Opinion Stories on Everything from Politics to Social Issues, today it Advertises “Analytics & Advice About Everything That Matters” and invites Readers to “learn more” about how the company “help[s] leaders and organizations solve their most pressing problems.”
All the Polling Data is now an Extra Click away, on Gallup’s “News” page. That includes a Report on Friday, which finds that Trump’s Approval Ratings have held between 35% and 45% over the first 23 months of his Presidency, significantly more Stable than any of his 12 most-recent Predecessors. Gallup, which Traces its Roots to Legendary Pollster George Gallup, maintains a Trove of Data on Presidential Approval that goes back more than 70 years, to Harry Truman's Presidency.
While Cutting Back to a Monthly reading of Trump’s Approval will allow Gallup to maintain the Overall Trend Line, the Rich Data it now includes: monitoring Key Subgroups along the lines of Gender, Race, and other Crosstabs, won’t be available as Frequently.
The Report cites “extreme party polarization” as a possible driver keeping Trump’s approval ratings in a narrow band, regardless of national conditions and events. Trump’s Average Approval Ratings are 85% among Republicans and 8% among Democrats, that 77-point Gap is Larger than similar Gaps for: Obama (70 points), George W. Bush (61 points), and Bill Clinton (55 points).
The Stability in Trump’s Approval Rating makes Polls Measuring it Less Valuable, Jeff Jones, Gallup's Senior Editor, said in a Phone Interview. “We could invest more money in keeping the tracking going, but if it’s going to be 38, 39, 40, or 41 [percent], that might not be the best use of our money.”
Newport, the Current Editor-in-Chief and an Expert in Public Opinion on Politics and Religion, will be entering "semi-retirement," Clifton said, Transitioning to a Role as a Senior Scientist. He said in a Gallup Podcast announcing the Move that the Change is part of “a long-in-the-works succession plan,” and he and other Gallup Employees Plan to “continue the worthy objective of providing the world with objective, clear understanding of public opinion here in the United States and around the world.”
Clifton praised Newport in his Statement. "Frank performed his role to perfection," he said. "He never uttered a word of political partisanship — never showed even a tiny leaning or took a single tiny jab at any leader or special interest group. Nor did his teams. Frank was as near to neutral as any editor of any publication in the world."
Younis, Newport's Replacement, laid out some of the Company's Early Plans for 2019 in a Statement that underscores Gallup's New Focus. "In just the first few months, Gallup will release specially curated pages on our long-term trends, including attitudes on abortion and guns, as well as larger analytical pieces on uninsured Americans, race relations and how political identities are shifting in the United States," Younis said. "On the global front, Gallup will soon be releasing approval ratings of U.S. leadership and comparing these ratings with the approval of leaders from other key global powers."
As for the 2020 Election Cycle, Jones, the Senior Editor who Wrote the Report on Trump's Approval Rating, that he doesn't expect Gallup to Return to the Horse-Race Polls it has historically conducted. Still, despite the Company's shift, he does think Gallup will contribute some Public Opinion Research, particularly on Issues. “I would be surprised if we did nothing on the election,” Jones said.
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