Steve Rose explains in the Kansas Star how Independent Greg Orman could be Elected Kansas Governor in 2018.
Today, in the U.S. there is only One Independent serving as Governor, Bill Walker in Alaska. That at least proves it can be done. Ross Perot in his Third-Party Presidential bid in 1992 proved there is something of an independent streak in Kansas if enough Voters find the Major Party choices unacceptable.
The breakdown among Registered Voters in Kansas shows the State is not as Red as often perceived. An impressive 31% of Registered Voters in Kansas are Unaffiliated. That beats the 24% who are Democrats, while 45% Republicans, not even a Majority. Independents tend to be Liberal on Social Issues but Fiscally Conservative Centrists. That is precisely where Orman stands, which means he could draw very Strong Support from Independents.
Orman is experienced in Politics. In fact, this is not his first Statewide Campaign. In 2014, Orman ran for the U.S. Senate as an Independent, I supported Greg on his Senate Race in 2014, against Republican Pat Roberts. The Democratic Nominee dropped out, and his Name was removed from the Ballot. Although Orman captured 42.5% of the Vote to Roberts’ 53%, he proved his Political Viability. We should remember as late as October that year, one Month before the Election, Major Polls showed Orman ahead by as much as 10 points. A month later, a lot of Undecided Republicans came home to roost. Orman now reasonably figures that late-deciding Republicans will not come home to roost if Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach is their Nominee.
Orman has plenty of Assets. He brings to the Race Mega-Millions of his Own dollars to Self-fund an Aggressive campaign. He is bright, charming, and articulate. Those are important qualities in a Candidate. Orman hails from Johnson County, the Largest County by Population in the State. In fact, against Roberts, Orman lost in Johnson County by only One point.
What Orman must be counting on, or he would not be running, is that the Republican Nominee will be the Unpopular Kobach. Although Kobach is well-known, his Approval Ratings are absolutely terrible. The only Exception is his Base of Conservatives who may deliver a Win for Kobach in the Republican Primary. But in a general Election, Kobach’s intense Unpopularity could be his undoing.
Orman figures he can capture a Large Bloc of Democrats who may not be enamored with their Candidate. That calculus could change with the just announced entrance into the race of State Sen. Laura Kelly, a very strong Democrat from Topeka. Orman also figures Democrats will be desperate to see Kobach beaten by the Stronger Opponent. Orman believes he will be better positioned to beat Kobach, and he thinks enough Democrats will agree.
So, let’s do the Math to see what Orman has to do to pull off an Upset. This scenario is based on a Large Turnout, due to a Highly-Charged Political Environment. That favors the more Moderate Candidate.
Give Orman Three out of Four Unaffiliated Voters, which totals 23% of All Registered Voters. Also assume Orman takes 20% of the voting Democrats, which would represent 6% of all Voters. And for the pièce de résistance, Orman steals a whopping 20% of Republicans who happen to intensely dislike Kobach enough to Cross-Over. That’s another 9% of the Total. Add them up, and voila: You get 38% for Orman. That likely would be enough to Win the Governor’s Seat in a fragmented Three-Way Race.
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