In the nine years since Keystone XL was first proposed it has become the most Political of Pipelines, pitting Environmentalists, Ranchers, and Native Americans against Oil companies, State Officials and Unionists.
Obama’s Administration delayed its construction in 2011, then Rejected it in November 2015.
As soon as Trump was in Office he revived the Proposal for a large tube running from Alberta, Canada, to the Gulf of Mexico. Russell Girling, Boss of TransCanada, the Canadian Operator of Keystone, said he was “very relieved” to see the $8bn Project finally Approved.
On November 20th, 2017, Nebraska’s Regulators, the Public Service Commission, an Elected Panel of Four Democrats and One Republican, Approved Keystone XL crossing Nebraska. Yet the Green Light came with an Amber one, the Commissioners did Not Approve the Route preferred by TransCanada, but one farther East. This could add more Expense and Complexity to a Project that was Costly and Complicated before it even started, it involves dozens of new Landowners who have not yet been Consulted. It could also prompt yet another Review of Keystone XL in neighbouring South Dakota, which has already said it will look at the Pipeline again if Changes made by other States affect the Route through its Plains.
TransCanada’s Reaction to the Regulators’ decision was muted, at best. Girling is now “assessing how the decision would impact the cost and schedule of the project”, he said in a Statement. In July TransCanada launched an “Open Season” to Solicit Binding Commitments from Shippers for Keystone XL. It has not made the results Public.
Once all the Reviews are completed, it may be Economics rather than Politics that Halts the Pipeline. “The financial viability of the project is highly speculative,” says Tom Sanzillo of the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a Research Group, who thinks there is only a 20%-30% chance the Pipeline will be Built. For Keystone XL to work financially, the Price of Oil needs to be $80-$90 a Barrel, with an Upward Trajectory, says Sanzillo.
The Price of Oil is at $60 a Barrel, compared with $140 in 2008 when TransCanada First Applied for a Permit to Pipe Oil across the American-Canadian Border. Lorne Stockman of Oil Change International, an Advocacy group, also thinks the Pipeline is Unlikely to be Built. To get going TransCanada needs to sign-Up enough Clients with Long-Term Contracts for 90% of the Capacity of Keystone XL, which will be able to Transport 830,000 Barrels of Oil a day, compared with 600,000 Barrels from the Current Pipeline. “Shippers will not have signed the dotted line before the Nebraska decision,” says Stockman. And they are likely to be more Hesitant to Sign-Up now given that the Route has been Altered from the one preferred by TransCanada.
Zachary Rogers of Wood Mackenzie, an Energy Consultancy, is less Pessimistic about the Finances of the Project. Thanks to Cuts by the OPEC Oil Cartel, Declining Mexican Production, and the Political Instability in Venezuela, the Market for Heavy Crude has been tight recently, says Rogers. However Dirty and difficult to Refine, Canada’s Thick Tar-Sands Oil could fill that Gap. Using Tar-Sands Oil Emits up to 50% more Carbon Dioxide than using Conventional Oil.
TransCanada’s Bosses will decide in December whether to Build the Pipeline. The Prospect of Interminable Litigation is likely to weigh on their minds. Jane Kleeb of Bold Alliance, a Foe of Keystone XL, says her group believes TransCanada will have to seek another Federal Review, as 63 Miles of the Newly Approved Route have not been Examined by the Federal Government. Other Opponents are expected to take the Case to a State District Court, from where it is likely to go all the way up to the State Supreme Court. Trump handed the Pipeline a Reprieve. But its ultimate fate will be decided by Shareholders, rather than by Activists, Courts or Governments.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
