Courtesy of CNBC:
The world is moving toward crisis and a state of "geopolitical depression" as the presidency of Donald Trump accelerates divisions among citizens and the unraveling of the global order, risk consultancy Eurasia Group warns.
Liberal democracies are suffering from a deficit of legitimacy not seen since World War II, and today's leaders have largely abandoned civil society and common values, Eurasia Group says in its annual assessment of top geopolitical risks. The breakdown in norms opens the door to a major event that could rock the global economy and markets.
"In the 20 years since we started Eurasia Group, the global environment has had its ups and downs. But if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018," said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan.
U.S. global power is "sputtering to a stall" as the Trump philosophy of retrenchment and unilateralism sows confusion among both allies and rivals, Eurasia Group says. The world now lacks leadership to steer it through the impending crisis.
"'America First' and the policies that flow from it have eroded the U.S.-led order and its guardrails, while no other country or set of countries stands ready or interested in rebuilding it … significantly increasing global risk."
Here are some of Eurasia Group's predictions.
- China will fill vacuum left by United States: People argue that America should not be the world's police, but have they considered who takes that responsibility once we drop the ball?
- Miscalculations spark conflict: I think knowing Trump's lack of understanding concerning world affairs that this is a given.
- Technology Cold War: Oh yeah, most definitely.
- Tough year for Mexico
- Deteriorating U.S.-Iran relations: Already seeing this happen. Could lead to more direct conflicts, even militarily, or proxy wars within other countries.
- Falling trust in democratic institutions: America is the gold standard when it comes to democracy, once the rest of the world sees that it failed us why would they trust it in their countries?
- Rise of protectionism 2.0: Already seeing it.
- Brexit gets tougher to manage: Undoubtedly.
- Identity politics in Southern Asia.
- Africa becomes less stable: Not an expert on this, but it is scary to imagine such a volatile nations becoming even more less stable than it is now.
If they all prove accurate we may be looking at a breakdown of world order that will see the rise of more dictators, increased poverty, and even the possibility of another world war.
"I'm the last thing standing between you and the apocalypse"–Clinton, weeks before the election https://t.co/6rbgEhANRJ pic.twitter.com/29lTA1N64X— Adam Khan (@Khanoisseur) October 9, 2017
How does everybody feel about that protest vote now?