With three recent judges appointed by Trump, and now a super conservative majority, it seems almost impossible for the Supreme Court to deny Trump a run for the presidency. That’s almost become conventional wisdom. 

This said, some qualified legal scholars argue that Trump's actions surrounding the January 6th Capitol riot constitute "insurrection" under the 14th Amendment, making him ineligible to hold office again. There are opposing voices suggesting that disqualification on these grounds sets a dangerous precedent and violates due process, raising concerns about the separation of powers. 

Others also claim that such a decision would spark a huge, popular revolt. I believe that there will be more pragmatic trends at play that might disqualify Trump. They start with with John Roberts, the Court’s Chief Justice, that might see there a golden opportunity to get rid of Trump and his antics, particularly his demented ideas about revoking the constitution and other weird and dangerous moves that would force his Court to make damning decisions that would irremediably destroy its credibility.

Just five votes are needed to deny Trump another run for the presidency and John Roberts would only need to persuade Bret Kavanaugh to weigh against the former president to reach that majority. Both Roberts and Kavanaugh are considered conservative justices, though Roberts has occasionally displayed a willingness to break from strict conservative ideology and so has Kavanaugh at least on one voting rights issue. 

Further Roberts has consistently expressed concern about the Supreme Court being perceived as a political body. He might try to persuade Kavanaugh that disqualifying Trump, despite potential ideological alignment, could be necessary to maintain the Court's legitimacy and public trust. 

Clearly, the specific legal arguments for and against disqualification will be crucial. Roberts, as Chief Justice, will play a key role in shaping the Court's discussion and interpreting the Constitution, potentially influencing Kavanaugh's final vote. I still think and hope it works out that way.