In the last few days we've been hearing talk coming from Nasrallah and Hezbollah saying things like they didn't realize that Israel was going to attack from the simple kidnapping and attack they did to them. Perhaps some real evalation is going on.

After a number of days of crowing about how they had stood up to Israel some things have really become clear:

Hezbollah lost hundreds of fighters, many installations, and many neighborhoods took very bad hits. The infrastructure of the Shiite territory is hurt badly, and there is much destruction, which leads to people being out of work, not having homes, lost goods and lost family members.

Hezbollah was unable to follow up on many of its threats. They never were able to get a rocket or missile down to Tel Aviv. They were not able to wreak havoc by releasing chemical spills through the destruction of plants in Haifa and areas like that. They managed to kill many Arab Israelis while they were at it, though. There were no chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction released. They were only able to kill less than a dozen Israeli tanks, although they tried hard.

Their propaganda machine was uncovered.

They found out that the Sunni/Shiite wall is very tough to penetrate, and that even though Israel is seen as the evil one in the region by many, that wall between Sunni and Shiite was not breached. No holy pan Islamic war was released to save Hezbollah.

Nasrallah has been marked for assassination by the IDF, and still must be very careful about his movements.

He does not have the political juice that Arafat had.

Another telling mark to me seems to be Hezbollah's holding to the cease fire.

To paraphrase Tacitus, they have made a desert and called it Victory. They may claim victory, and they have gained status and face during this, but they still have to live in the squalid mess that South Lebanon and parts of the Bekka have become from their actions. Perhaps, it's even dawned on a few of them this happened with Israel not waging all out war on them, but was holding back.

Lebanon's government may even be strengthened (or at least has a chance to be strengthened) because of their actions, with the military regaining the Shiite areas back as part of the nation, and having it function less as a state within a state.

I do not believe Hezbollah is anywhere near finished as part of the power block in Lebanon, but today it is not the same group as it was in June. Some lessons may be coming home to roost as they paw through the rubble, take stock, and begin the hard lessons of rebuilding.

Or perhaps they will learn no more than Hamas seems to.

Time will tell who is the wiser of the two groups.