AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Crude oil futures fell for a 4th day, as Israel has refrained from immediately striking back against Iran after the unprecedented air assault last weekend, easing fears that the Middle East is on the brink of a major war.  The West Texas Intermediate contract for May fell 36¢ to $82.34 a barrel & Jun Brent futures lost 52¢ to $86.77 a barrel.  Oil has sold off 4% this week as traders unwind the geopolitical risk premium built into prices over the last 2 weeks.  US crude oil & the global benchmark have fallen below the prices reached after Israeli's airstrike against Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria at the start of the month, the event that triggered the current round of hostilities. Tamas Varga, analyst with oil broker PVM, said it appears intl pressure on Israel will compel the country to respond in a “measured and moderate” way to Iran’s weekend attack.   Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have also receded, Varga added.  “Those with bullish propensity are sinking into apathy as the risk premium that is rooted from Russia and the Near East keeps eroding,” he said.  In addition to the fading geopolitical risk premium, prices are also falling on a 10M barrel build in US petroleum inventories last week, said Giovanni Staunovo, strategist with UBS.

U.S. oil falls below $83 as war fears ease after Israel refrains from immediate Iran counterattack

The commercial real estate market is starting to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates & remote work.  There were 625 commercial real estate foreclosures in Mar, up 6% from Feb & 117% from the same time last year, according to a new report published by real estate data provider ATTOM.  The figure is calculated based on commercial properties with at least 1 foreclosure filing, including default notices, scheduled auctions & bank repossessions, entered into the ATTOM Data Warehouse during the month.  California had the highest number of commercial foreclosures in Mar, with 187 properties.  While that marked an 8% decrease from the previous month, it is a stunning 405% jump from the previous year.   "California began experiencing a notable rise in commercial foreclosures in November 2023, surpassing 100 cases and continuing to escalate thereafter," the report said.  New York, Florida, Texas & New Jersey also saw notable increases in commercial foreclosures last month.  Foreclosures have steadily risen since May 2020, when they hit a record low of just 141 properties.  At that time, the US economy was still in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic, & many lenders offered commercial loan forbearance to borrowers to help them stay afloat.  However, those agreements have largely expired & now, the commercial real estate market is struggling with a number of challenges, including higher interest rates & waning demand for office space as more companies allow employees to work from home.

Commercial real estate foreclosures jumped 117% in March as trouble looms

Stocks have struggled amid concerns inflation is no longer cooling & the Federal Reserve could ease back on interest rate cuts.  That has put corp earnings center stage as investors watch closely how well reports match up with high expectations.  Dow is still down 1800 in Apr.

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