Dow dropped 124, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ went down 58.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 276s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 389s.  Junk bond funds were in demand & Treasuries had limited selling which raised yields.  Oil slid into the 77s & gold edged up 3 to another record at 2188 (more below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

A record-breaking rally for gold may yet continue, particularly as investors position for interest Rate cuts, but analysts say silver appears well placed to outshine the yellow metal in H2.  Spot gold prices edged higher to $2178 per ounce, after settling at their highest since 1979 last week.  Spot silver prices, meanwhile, were last seen up 0.2% at $24.36 per ounce.  The contract, which rose over 5% last week, on Thurs settled at its highest level since late Dec.  Precious metal prices have pushed higher in recent weeks amid growing expectations of US interest rate cuts.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation is “not far” from where it needs to be for the central bank to start cutting rates.  Gold, which is typically considered a “safe haven” asset at times of financial uncertainty, has rallied despite high interest rates & a relatively strong $.  “If you look at gold’s correlations, what you can see is that actually despite the narrative of it being a defensive asset, really it oscillates between the two. It can sometimes perform in line with risk and sometimes against risk,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, said.  “What you need to then get back to is what is the underlying causation of those moves and why is gold reacting in one way or the other, and I think here, really the thing that is setting up gold very well … is expectations of rate cuts. That’s clearly risk positive.”

Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show

While the White House lectures on the strength of the economy, Americans are drowning in credit-card debt, which hit a record high $1.13T by the end of last year.  Of course Americans are sour on the economy: they’re having to put necessities on credit cards that charge $240B in interest annually.  How we got here is a lesson in failed gov policy.  Excessive gov spending over the last 4 years has created nothing short of a cost-of-living crisis, which has left families mired in debt.  When the gov spent, borrowed & printed Ts of $s, that devalued the $, causing inflation.  Every American's paycheck & savings lost value & could buy less.  From Jan 2021 to Jun 2022, real (inflation-adjusted) average weekly earnings fell 5.1%.  By Jan 2024, 3 years after Biden took office, real earnings were still down 4.4%.  The real value of the typical American family's weekly paycheck fell $85 over that time, despite growing $270.  With 60% of families living paycheck to paycheck, many people had to get 2nd or even 3rd jobs to make ends meet.  While that increases payrolls & makes the monthly jobs numbers look great, it's actually a sign of impoverishment, not wealth.  Many families also fell into debt, relying on credit cards to pay for necessities like rent, groceries & utilities.  That has caused credit-card balances to soar to a record $1.1T as almost ½ of Americans are unable to pay off their purchases at the end of each month.  And it's not just a one-time surge of borrowing from Christmas shopping a couple months ago.  In fact, a ¼ of card-holders still have debt from their 2022 holiday shopping.  It gets worse.  Many Americans racked up credit-card debt when they had interest rates at or near 0%.  With the expiration of those introductory offers & the rapid rise in interest rates over the last few years, financing costs on credit cards have shattered previous records.  The combination of record-high credit-card balances & interest rates means Americans are now paying $240B annually just in interest, before they pay a single dime on their outstanding balances.  That’s an additional cost on top of the existing stratospheric increases in their cost of living.  But the damage caused by the gov has been internal as well as external.  The federal debt has exploded about $6.5T since Jan 2021 to an eye-watering $34.2T.  Interest on the debt now costs taxpayers over $1T annually, over 40% of all personal income taxes.  And that's not fixing roads and bridges, funding schools, maintaining airports, or funding the military; it's just servicing the debt.

Government gets fatter while Americans rack up record-high credit-card debt

Long-term inflation expectations rise, spelling possible trouble for the Fed, survey shows

Fresh key inflation data is expected this week in from the consumer price index (CPI) for Feb tomorrow & the producer price index (PPI) on Thurs.  Last month's CPI & PPI readings came in hotter than expected, indicating persistent inflation & sparking concerns about the outlook for rate cuts.  That comes after Fri's release of the closely watched jobs data for Feb.   Nonfarm payrolls rose by more than expected, showing that the US economy added 275K jobs in Feb, more than the estimate of 198K.  Investors widely took the data as a sign that interest rate cuts from the Fed are on the table for this year.  But when they will take place & how many cuts there will be in 2024 remains uncertain.

 Dow Jones Industrials