Dow went up 144, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 202.  The MLP index slid back 1+ to the 235s & the REIT index rebounded 3+ to 360.  Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries were very heavily purchased which sharply reduced yields.  Oil was fractionally lower to about 79 & gold advanced 20 to 1946 following recent weakness.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Since late last year, the case for a 2023 recession has been that consumers would run out of spending power following a post-pandemic spending spree.  That narrative has lasted so long that it's now the predicate of predictions for a 2024 downturn, after no 2023 dip materialized.  But those predictions look shakier after 2nd-qtr profit reports came in, with companies beating profit forecasts.  The case for the consumer is also bolstered by a range of other recent consumer statistics, from deposit levels at big financial institutions to car sales trends.  They present a picture of the consumer economy that shows real incomes rising as inflation wanes, consumers still holding onto most of the extra savings they banked during Covid & sectors including automobiles & services picking up the baton of consumer spending as growth in furniture, appliances & apparel remains weak after the Covid boom in goods purchasing.  The data point to rebounds in a series of economic stats that did make the case that a recession was likely roughly a year ago, in the 3rd qtr of 2022.  All of the data has improved this year, led by the steep decline in inflation.  After the Census Bureau reported Jul retail sales rose 0.7%, both Moody's & the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised their real-time tracking forecast for 3rd-qtr growth this year.

Earnings, economic data show the consumer is still in control of the economy 

Money market funds hit record as investors jump at 5% returns

Mortgage rates jumped last week to the highest level in 23 years, pushing mortgage demand from homebuyers to the lowest level in 28 years.  Total mortgage application volume fell 4.2% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) seasonally adjusted index.  Last week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726K or less) increased to 7.31% from 7.16%, with points rising to 0.78 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  Last year that rate was 5.65%.  “Treasury yields continued to spike last week as markets grappled with illiquidity and concerns that the resilient economy will keep inflation stubbornly high,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.  As a result, applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week & were 30% lower than the same week one year ago.  Buyer demand stood at the lowest level since 1995.  Potential buyers are dealing not only with high interest rates & high prices, but extremely low supply.  The available homes on the market at the end of Jul were close to a qtr-century low, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of applications increased to 7.6%, which was the highest level in 5 months & the number of ARM applications rose 4% week to week.  “Some homebuyers are looking to lower their monthly payments by accepting some interest rate risk after the initial fixed period,” noted Kan.  Mortgage rates continued to climb this week & are now around 7.5% according to Mortgage News Daily. 

Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low as interest rates soar

As shown below, Dow has fallen a good 1000 in Aug.  Bargain hunters have returned, but the specter of high interest rates & their effect on the economy remains.  Powell will give a speech at the summer resort in Jackson Hole on Fri & everybody will pay attention to his comments.

Dow Jones Industrials