PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang told all and sundry that Anwar-led Unity Government could collapse if Opposition Perikatan Nasional wins the upcoming Pulai parliamentary by-election. Exactly how could the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS – Parti Islam Se-Malaysia), along with its sidekick Bersatu (Malaysian United Indigenous Party) forms a backdoor government with just 74 MPs?

Even if the opposition manages to snatch Pulai, its total Member of Parliaments in the 222-seat Parliament will increase to 75. It’s indeed laughable that the opposition thinks it could topple the current government with just 75 MPs against 147 MPs. Sure, the alliance of Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional might lose its two-thirds majority if Pulai is lost. But the unity government is still intact.

In comparison, the previous backdoor regime of Muhyiddin Yassin had a razor-thin majority of only 114 MPs. Of course, the disgraced man finally lost power after just 17 months – betrayed by a faction of his own ally, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO). His chosen successor, “turtle-egg” Ismail Sabri served only 15 months – the shortest-serving prime minister in history.

If both illegitimate and un-elected premiers could survive for 33 months with just 114 MPs, surely Anwar – armed with more than 140 MPs – could last till the next 16th General Election. So, was power-crazy Hadi hallucinating after smoking weed, or high on “ketum”? After all, he had made a similar claim in the run-up to the six state elections held earlier this month.

In truth, both Bersatu president Muhyiddin and PAS president Hadi were cocksure, or at least fantasized, that Perikatan Nasional could snatch crown jewel Selangor from Pakatan Harapan. The “green wave” that swept through Malaysia during the 15th General Election last November, however, failed to turn into a “tsunami” which the Opposition had hoped for.

The failure to capture Penang, Selangor or Negeri Sembilan means both ruling government and the opposition returned to the status quo. It also means Perikatan Nasional could have received its maximum support from the conservative Malays. It has reached its peak. The only way to go, therefore, is for the wave to subside. The opposition has to wait for another 4 years at the ballot box.

But the crooks don’t have four years. Muhyiddin might end up in prison like former PM Najib Razak. His dubious spending in the RM600 billion Covid scandal is still alive and kicking. Bersatu may quit Perikatan Nasional, or PAS may kick out Bersatu. The distrust has begun as PAS greedily grabbed everything, including state executive councillors (Exco) and all four states (Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu).

Poor Muhyiddin is now left with not a single state to administer, even though his party has won more parliamentary and state seats than in the 2018 General Election. Before his betrayal in the infamous “Sheraton Move” in early 2020, Bersatu was given the privilege to run the states of Johor, Perak and Kedah. It’s a matter of time before the party followers leave in droves.

That’s why Perikatan Nasional top leadership keeps creating new narratives that the unity government would “collapse soon”. It is part of the old school of psychological warfare to give hope to party followers and to prevent them from quitting. Without power and access to federal resources, the opposition parties find it hard to feed its grassroots and grease the machinery.

But how does Hadi plan to snatch power and shamelessly create yet another backdoor government? The religious extremist has actually dropped all the hints when he said – “We need an extra seat in Pulai and a few others, so we have to be patient.” Crucially, he has also expressed hope that UMNO would change its mind and “repent” – suggesting a grand betrayal.

The opposition’s game plan is pretty easy. Hishammuddin Hussein, the cousin of crooked Najib Razak, will play the most important role to destabilize his own party – UMNO – if Pulai seat is captured. That’s why Hadi said the opposition needs the extra seat in Pulai. That extra seat will be interpreted as a sign that conservative and radical Malays have breached the UMNO fortress in Johor.

Previously, UMNO insiders claimed that 15 MPs, including 2 lawmakers from Anwar’ own party – PKR (People’s Justice Party) – were ready to switch sides, and re-contest under the Opposition banner after the mass resignations. Leading the UMNO traitors, saboteurs and provocateurs would be Hishammuddin, who has been suspended by his own party for 6 years.

Hishammuddin was responsible for instigating 10 Barisan Nasional MPs to support rival Perikatan Nasional chairman Muhyiddin Yassin as 10th Prime Minister after the 15th national polls that produced a hung Parliament. The list included Barisan component parties – two lawmakers from MCA (party president Wee Ka Siong and Wee Jeck Seng) and one MP from MIC (Saravanan).

While anti-hopping law prevents lawmakers from jumping ship unless it is through en-bloc defection (meaning UMNO president Zahid Hamidi agrees to withdraw support for the unity government), a lawmaker who resigns is free to join another political party and still be able to contest without any penalty. This is due to a loophole – either deliberately or ignorantly designed.

However, there were some problems with the earlier plan. There’s no guarantee that all the 15 MPs who resign and re-contest will win back their respective seats. For example, MCA president Wee Ka Siong retained his Ayer Hitam seat due to UMNO-Malay votes, as did Wee Jeck Seng (Tanjung Piai) and Saravanan (Tapah). Even Hishammuddin wasn’t sure he can retain Sembrong seat if he were to contest under Perikatan Nasional banner.

Another issue was that nobody knows if the so-called “green wave” will repeat itself. It was because of this reason that the plan was temporarily suspended, waiting for the six state election results. If the tsunami did not happen, there was no reason to commit “kamikaze” by resigning only to lose all the 15 MPs. Obviously, the results of the six state elections are not conclusive.

Hishammuddin, who has been extremely silent since the plot was exposed, does not have the balls to resign en masse after the half-baked PAS’ wave. Playing safe and unwilling to take the risk, he wanted more concrete proof that UMNO can be neutralized if he were to start a rebellion by quitting the party and trigger by-elections. Pulai by-election will be that benchmark.

In fact, the outcome of the six state elections last month showed that Malay voters have not only rejects UMNO, but also Bersatu. Muhyiddin’s party has failed to wrestle Selangor, and was merely riding on PAS grassroots and machinery to win its seats. This has raised the question whether the green wave was only strong in the northern part, gradually losing its steam when reached Selangor before stopping in Negeri Sembilan.

If Perikatan Nasional is indeed unstoppable, it will win Pulai. However, only 7 UMNO MPs are ready to vacate their seats to make way for by-elections. Some have chicken out after the results of the six state elections. This is why Hadi said in order to change government; the opposition needs to win Pulai and a “few others” – clearly referring to Hishammuddin and his minions.

Interestingly, even if Hishammuddin-led UMNO traitors were to defect, the pressure on Zahid to resign may not be strong enough to convince the party president to abandon his former mentor Anwar Ibrahim. Assuming the party loses 7 MPs, it still has 19 MPs whilst the unity government still possesses 140 MPs. This also explains why Hadi said he hopes that UMNO would change its mind and “repent”.

PAS still hopes it could persuade – and scam – the top leadership of UMNO the same way it did in 2020 to form a so-called Malay-Muslims government once again. But the people of Johor – Bangsa Johor – is a different kettle of fish. Sultan Ibrahim of Johor, in his latest interview, has raised the importance of national unity, the future of the state, and the significance of China to Malaysia.

Identifying himself first as a “Malaysian”, the Sultan takes pride in his “Bangsa Johor” concept. He emphasized that he had never sidelined any other ethnic community in the country. Heck, he has even mooted the idea of a new political party – Parti Bangsa Johor. Essentially, Hishammuddin, PAS and Bersatu will be up against the Bangsa Johor and Sultan Ibrahim.

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