The Delhi Election results are truly momentous in the history of Indian Politics. Never in the history of India has a single Party won 95% of the seats. Never before in the history of India have national parties been so badly humiliated. One of them could not open its account. The BJP barely eked out that three seats – just a little better than others. A lot will be written on these historic results for a long time. For a second time in less than one year, voters decided that it was better give one party an overwhelming majority. For a second time in a year, a Six-sigma event seems to have become the norm. In terms of statistical probabilities such result is considered to be an outlier with the probabilities being one in one crore probabilities. However, such huge majorities may actually become the norm – an indicator that there is a major underlying sociological change in India and among the voters. If BJP draws the right lessons, this electoral wipe out could be the best thing that could have happened to it. Unless BJP draws the right lessons, things can get a lot worse for the party. There will be a temptation within the BJP to dismiss the election results as insignificant since the electorate of Delhi accounts for only 2% of the total electorate in India and Delhi sends only seven members to the Parliament. Delhi has never been important because of the numbers. At the end of the day, it is the seat of power – at points of time in history it was only symbolic but most of the time it was/is the real seat of power. It is not without a reason that everybody in Indian sub-continent looks to Delhi for direction. More importantly, Delhi is a microcosm of the country. It literally has people from all parts of India – and, in large numbers. In other words, Delhi is important because it is a barometer for the country.
History has a number of important lessons – for those who are willing to draw the right lessons. After the 2014 general elections, Political pundits loved to point out that for the first time in 30 years there is a stable government. Though it is very early, there is a need take another lesson from history: Congress party winning a majority on its own in 1984 was also the last time that they ever formed a one party government. The party went into a long-term decline after that stupendous win.
At the onset, it is important to point out that the election results should worry all parties in equal measure. It is clear that the electorate has become smarter than what they were credited with. Andhra Pradesh and Delhi election results indicate that the voters have become very knowledgeable, discerning and are not willing to waste their vote by sticking with their traditional preference – especially, if they want to punish a party. In this case, it was clear that the voters wanted to punish the BJP and hence decided to vote en masse for AAP because they stood the best chance of winning. In other words, unlike in the past, when voters are angry, it is unlikely that they will waste their vote. The 2014 general elections indicated the same when Congress was punished and Delhi elections is a reinforcement of that trend. It is likely that this will be the central theme of future elections.
There is a long list of takeaways from the Delhi Results. The key take away of the results is that the sun is about to set or has already set on the Congress Party. The party has not just fallen off a cliff; instead, the results make it clear that the party has fallen into an abyss where nobody knows where the bottom is. Importantly, the results seems to indicate the regionalisation of the Congress Party. Technically, it may be a national party but, in terms of spread it may be more like a regional party with some pockets of influence. In other words, it means that Congress will from now on (and in practical terms) be more of a regional party. The BJP is likely to take the Congress Party’s place as the principal party that will drive the agenda. Hence, in future, electoral battles are likely with BJP on one side and others on the other side. The results clearly show that the era of regional parties is not over. On the contrary, the decline of the Congress seems to have convinced people that a regional party has a better chance of successfully opposing the BJP. An important point that BJP strategists have to keep in mind is that they have done exceedingly well only when they were fighting the Congress party and not any regional party. In Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP decimated the INC but, in Jharkhand where the opposition was a regional party, it just about managed to form the government. Hence, there is an urgent need for the BJP not to lose sight of the fact that the vote for them in regional elections was essentially a vote against the ruling Congress party.
There will also be strong temptation within BJP to blame internal squabbles for the loss. Internal squabbles are not a cause for such a huge washout. The winning party got about 52% of the vote share – or about 25% more than BJP. In contrast, the BJP’s vote share was more or less constant from 2013. Therefore, internal squabbles played only a minor role – if at all they played any role. A frank analysis indicates that the Modi government needs a course correction. First and foremost, it has to understand that despite the fact that it has a majority on its own, it should learn to treat its friends with more respect and should be magnanimous in victory. Any political party, especially a national party, cannot afford to be considered as a fair-weather friend. Elections are all about mobilising support and converting goodwill into votes. Votes are one part of it. Mobilising support from all quarters is very important. In such a scenario, the direct and indirect support of friends is also important. If one antagonises friends it is likely that they will not mobilise their supporters: even if they sit at home, it will damage the prospects of the ally. It seems like as if within nine months the NDA allies simply did not bother to canvass support for the BJP – an important factor when the contests are intense and tight.
BJP also needs to understand that it cannot become like the Congress and forget about promises made during elections. Making tall promises is easy but implementing them is another matter altogether. It is likely that many people are likely to think that inability to bring black money back is a major reason. However, it is unlikely that it was a major cause. Bringing black money does not touch the lives of the poor on a daily basis. In contrast, the poor were definitely affected by things like Direct Benefits Transfers, issues related to price rise and the inability to create jobs. A major reason for the wipe of UPA in 2014 general elections was their inability to control food prices and to create jobs. The promise to control prices and to create jobs along with good governance endeared the voters to Modi during the election campaign.
The claim that the Modi Government controlled inflation did not cut much ice with the voters for two reasons: food prices have not come down and despite fall in international oil price the prices did not fall commensurately for the consumers. BJPs biggest and core strength is the support among traders and middle classes. The problem with the middle class is that it strongly believes in the concept of “Charity begins at home while justice next door”. Traders and the Middle classes did not benefit from the near 50% fall in oil price. Unlike a decade ago, 24-hours live television means that people are quite aware of global and national events. Hence, when oil prices did not fall in tandem with the global prices it hurt the BJPs core support base. Food and petrol are something that middle classes buy at least once a week. Consequently, each time they opened their purse to purchase food or petrol it opened a can of discontent. The undecided, independent minded voters who punished the congress for this reason and swung the 2014 elections now moved to AAP. In retrospect, it would have been less damaging for the BJP if it had passed on at least half of the benefits that accrued from the international fall in oil prices.
Another important reason is the promise to create jobs. Creating jobs is not easy. However, when expectations are extremely high, as in the case of the aftermath of the General Elections of 2014, things can go awfully wrong when expectations are met at immediately. ‘Feel good factor’ may be good for the stock market but not for a poor person looking for a job. As long as the economy does not get better on the employment front, it is unlikely that there will be political benefits for the ruling party.
A major issue that may not have gone down well with the people is the importance that the Modi government has given to Aadhaar and Direct Benefits Transfer. Considering the fact that the BJP had opposed it while it was in the opposition embracing it while in power does not seem to have gone down well with the voters. The BJP government would not have suffered such a fate if the roll out had slower and had given more time to the people especially in the case of LPG. Even to this day, the gas agencies are teeming with crowds who are facing a problem of LPG. It is a mistake to think that LPG is not used by the lower classes. Successive government have given LPG connections to the lower classes as part of one scheme or the other. A number of these consumers are facing a lot of trouble navigating the new set of rules. Each trip to the gas agency leaves the consumer fuming because it requires people to forego their work for at least that day – if the problem is solved in one day.
The lesson for BJP is that it should keep all its promises – not just those that have an All-India relevance (like food prices or petrol prices). This is because unlike the 1980s or 1990s, migrants who settle down far from their native place are an important component of our voting populace in all our major cities. The larger the city, the more they number. In the case of Delhi, people from South India, especially those from AP, Kerala and Tamil Nadu make up an important component of the voters. BJP going back on its promise of special status has clearly not gone down well with people from AP settled in Delhi. The paltry and insulting package of Rs.850 crores was like adding salt to a festering wound. It was like as if the Modi government had thrown crumbs to its pet dog. While Congress bifurcated AP, BJP went back on its promise. So for a settler from AP in Delhi, it was no brainer that the best way to punish both the national parties was to vote for AAP. The Sooner BJP keeps its promise of Special Status of abundant funds to AP, the better for the party. This is because there are a number of constituencies in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, which have a large concentration of people from Andhra Pradesh. Hence, it is better not to antagonise people of AP – their curse can be a problem far beyond the boundaries of AP. To this must be added the fact that there are very few South Indian ministers in Modi’s cabinet has surely not gone down well with the South Indian population. In the General Elections of 2014, such issues receded into the background as the anger was primarily directed at the ruling UPA .
An almost unnoticed aspect of the Delhi elections but one that has ominous implications for BJP in Andhra Pradesh is that Arvind Kejriwal has clearly shown the Power of an Apology – especially when it is made innumerable times. At the time when elections were announced, the abrupt resignation of AAP government after 49 days was an issue. Though he had apologised in the past, in the early days of the campaign Kejriwal apologised so many times that on the voting day, abrupt resignation was a dead issue though the BJP tried to revive the issue. This has major implications in AP: if the Congress were to similarly keep apologising it is likely that instead of Congress Bifurcating AP by 2019, BJP going back on its promise of Special status and help to AP may become a major issue – thereby offering a major chance for the INC to revive itself from the present almost moribund state.
This is not to claim that this is the end of the road for BJP though the implications of this will be felt for a long time in a number of states. An immediate consequence will be felt in Bihar where it may give hope for those against BJP to draw lessons and put up a united fight. Until date, straight fight has damaged the BJP more than the other parties. Second, more importantly, there is an urgent need for the BJP to revisit its hurry to introduce Direct Benefits Transfer. While the administrative benefits of DBT cannot be faulted, the manner in which they are implemented tend to inconvenience the people when introduced in a hurry. There is now an attempt to push movement of even food and related measures through the DBT route. If all the welfare measures are moved through DBT, the impact of this on prices is not known. Hence, there is a need for the BJP or its allies to study the implications of DBT in more detail before going full throttle on these measures. The haste in which Congress introduced DBT was a factor in its defeat – though the Congress will not accept it. The political implications cannot be missed: almost all the large states except UP and Bihar (parliament seat wise) are now ruled by BJP or its allies. Hence, any inconvenience to the consumers will invariably have a political consequence. Similarly, any measure that has long-term and large implications on the consumers there is a need for the government to take the people into confidence rather than use its majority in the Lok Sabha to push measures. Pushing measures in haste will send the wrong signal to the people. AAP was able to spring back only because it went directly to the people and took them into confidence. There is now a need for the BJP to do the same. Unless the BJP uses this crisis to introspect, it will be a crisis wasted and lessons not learnt.
