The final deadline to get your first Ethereum ETF is Wednesday, May 23. This is when the SEC will approve or deny VanEck's application.

The application deadline for the Ark 21Shares Spot ETH ETF is the next day, Thursday, May 24, but what happens on Wednesday will set the tone for the rest of the issuers.

Other issuers awaiting a decision from the US regulator include Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock and Fidelity.

The odds of approval don't look good

On May 20, ETF Shop President Nate Geraci noted that the SEC must approve both 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and S-1s (registration statements) to launch ETFs.

He added that it was “technically possible” for the regulator to approve 19b-4 bonds and then “play slow” on S-1 bonds, especially given the lack of communication with issuers.

Deadline for this week's SEC decision on spot ETFs…

The SEC must approve both 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and S-1s (registration statements) to launch ETFs.

It's technically possible for the SEC to approve 19b-4s and then slow down the S-1 rollout (especially given the lack of engagement here).

– Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) May 19, 2024

A 19b-4 is a filing that a national securities exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, makes with the SEC when it wants to change rules or introduce new products, such as ETH ETFs.

The S-1 is the initial registration form required for new securities offered to the public that provides the agency and potential investors with detailed information about the company's business operations and products.

The SEC's delaying tactics could be used to “further evaluate market conditions or the specific structures of these ETFs without rejecting applications outright.” to explain Industry watcher “Grunky” on X.

Only five SEC commissioners are scheduled to vote on whether to approve or reject VanEck's ETF on Wednesday. Among them is Gary Gensler, who voted to approve spot bitcoin ETFs in January.

The other four are crypto-friendly commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Ueda, and anti-cryptocrats Carolyn Crenshaw and Jaime Lizarraga, so it could come down to Gensler's vote again.

ETH price forecast

If the SEC approves VanEck's fund on Wednesday, ETH prices will likely rise in the short term. However, the general consensus is that the SEC will reject it.

One analyst said that the bottom for Ethereum was already in place, and spot ETFs would eventually be approved even if they were rejected this week.

$ Ethereum Incoming monster run?

Ethereum ETF decision on May 23.

I expect it to be rejected

But I think so $ Ethereum The bottom is already there
Ethereum is going to get an ETF and the market knows it.

We will see a crazy rise in Ethereum in the coming months $ Bitcoin Half is… pic.twitter.com/gzzq3Xbr68

— Dippy.eth (@dippy_eth) May 19, 2024

Fellow Analyst “Mr. Crypto” He said That the bearish rejection scenario has already been priced in is a feeling Repeat By other crypto traders and analysts.

However, the sudden approval can surprise people. ETH prices have now dropped slightly to just under $3,100. SEC approval could lead to a quick upward move towards resistance at $3,500 and perhaps beyond.