Just as landline telephones have been replaced by mobile and Internet technologies, so will oil-based energy be replaced by renewable energy technologies, which include electric mobility. This is already happening here in Kenya with the help of new investments in electric vehicles, accommodative policies, and financial support. For this reason, players in the oil supply chain should consider gradually introducing renewable energy into their oil demand forecasts and investments.

Over the past two years, China has surprised the world with the speed with which it has increased electric vehicle market penetration in both domestic and export markets.

The country is making cheaper and more affordable electric cars with many models to suit all levels of consumer pockets – the perfect way to achieve widespread global uptake.

I estimate that within 10 years, Kenya will be more than halfway in the transition from oil to electric mobility. That's why more electricity and less oil supply chain infrastructure will be needed, a fact that government energy agencies and private investors must take into account when planning oil and electricity infrastructure.

In terms of commercial primary energy used in Kenya, oil accounts for about 70 percent of demand while electricity accounts for about 30 percent, an indication of the need for increased renewable energy generation capacity, both grid and captive, to replace oil.

At the same time, the Kenya Pipeline Corporation and private sector oil companies should scale back capacity enhancement projects. This includes reductions in service station licenses that are rapidly spreading across the country.

At the same time, more electric vehicle charging points should be added across the country. However, the speed at which EV battery technologies are developing will make EV charging increasingly simple and flexible to the point of charging vehicles anywhere including at home.

LPG is the only petroleum product with a promising future, and demand is expected to continue to rise as it replaces kerosene and firewood. However, at some point, you will be challenged by new cooking technologies using renewable energy, because LPG is already a carbon-emitting fossil fuel.

Replacing aviation fuel, which is primarily kerosene, will take much longer, since alternative renewable energy sources for aviation have not yet reached critical mass production.

Regarding the oil resources in Turkana, my thinking is that a simple design local refinery with a project life of 15 to 20 years can be established to commercialize the oil resources. Foreign exchange savings from oil imports should be sufficient to justify the feasibility of such a project. The pipeline from Turkana to Eldoret could allow products to be pumped back to Nairobi using reverse flow techniques.