“Generative AI has enormous economic potential and could boost global labor productivity by more than 1 percentage point a year in the decade following widespread usage,” wrote economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani.
Those investments could reach around $200 billion globally by 2025, and will likely happen before “adoption and efficiency gains start driving major gains in productivity,” the bank said.
Over the longer-term, AI investment could peak at 2.5% to 4% of U.S. GDP, and 1.5% to 2.5% of other AI leaders, the note said.
“Despite this extremely fast growth, the near-term GDP impact is likely to be fairly modest given that AI-related investment currently accounts for a very low share of U.S. and global GDP,” the analysts wrote, adding that while investment so far has been focused on model development, a “substantially larger hardware and software push will be required for generative AI to scale.”
