October fills some buyers with dread, and I can see why. Traditionally, a few of the greatest Market crashes — 1907, 1929, 1987 — have occurred on this month. So ought to all of us disguise behind a collective couch and await a mighty tumble within the FTSE 100?

Primed to fall?

It’s honest to say that the UK economic system isn’t precisely motoring alongside. Whereas inflation lastly seems to be slowing, a rising oil value suggests we’re not fairly carried out. And if analysts and economists fail to maintain expectations in test, the markets may react negatively when the following set of figures arrive.

It’s additionally price taking note of what’s occurring elsewhere. Throughout the pond, the US market is being held up by the efforts of a merry band of mega-cap tech shares and pleasure (hype?) round AI.

As a rule, being overly depending on just some corporations for fulfillment is inherently dangerous. That is very true in the event that they’re buying and selling on sky-high valuations.

On the opposite aspect of the world, China’s property market is wanting dangerously fragile. The nation can also be battling excessive youth unemployment, decrease overseas funding and slowing development.

Within the center, Ukraine remains to be battling valiantly towards Russian invaders.

It’s hardly a bullish backdrop.

On the brilliant aspect…

Now, it may be claimed that the above are all examples of ‘identified knowns’ – to undertake the terminology utilized by the late former US Secretary of Protection Donald Rumsfeld. In different phrases, they’re issues we’re conscious of and perceive. In consequence, their energy to shock — and trigger market upsets — is diminished. It’s uncertainty markets hate.

This would possibly assist to elucidate why the Ftse 100 has truly held its personal in September and, certainly, 2023 as a complete. Until we get the mom of all surprises in October, issues may very well be simply wonderful, or not less than bearable.

There are different chinks of sunshine. The Financial institution of England has slammed the brakes on rate of interest rises, suggesting that we could also be close to the height, and even previous it. This may occasionally push some shoppers to loosen their purse strings, albeit barely.

Maybe the most important silver lining to all of the financial clouds is that plenty of negativity already appears priced in to UK shares. Out of curiosity, October has additionally marked the finish of a number of bear markets over time.

Right here’s what I’m doing

After all, the inventory market doesn’t care one jot about what I feel. These highly-paid fund managers within the Metropolis? They don’t care both. Relying on how buyers are wired, it’s both a recipe for frustration or a purpose to ‘maintain calm and stick with it’.

Personally, I feel it’s very important to undertake a stoic angle to investing. That entails recognising these few issues which are inside my management (minimising prices, conducting adequate analysis, figuring out when to stroll away from the laptop computer) and people that aren’t (principally, every little thing else).

To be blunt, who cares if the FTSE 100 falls in October? Its efficiency over a brief time period is arguably simply noise for true long-term buyers.

What’s extra vital is that I proceed to speculate by means of thick and skinny for years. If I’m given the chance to snap up these nice shares at cut price costs alongside the way in which, all the higher.