Now that the midterm elections are less than two months away, Democratic and Republican nominees have been decided for almost every Race going into November.
Analysts originally projected November to be a blowout victory for Republicans across the board in the face of low approval ratings for President Joe Biden and high inflation. But a series of legislative wins for Democrats on Capitol Hill and primary victories by Trump-backed Republican candidates in battleground states have made control of the chamber more of a coin toss.
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“Democrats’ standing has improved over the past few months in most of these races,” analyst Jessica Taylor wrote recently for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “However, with the races fully engaging post-Labor Day and rescue money coming in to bail out weak GOP nominees from superPACs, we expect them to tighten once again.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said during a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce event last month that he believes “there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate.” He commented that “candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome” in Senate races.
Democrats are on the defensive as they try to retain their majority in the 50-50 Senate (thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote). Republicans want the Senate majority to stifle Biden and congressional Democrats’ agenda.
Here are important Senate races to keep an eye on (* denotes incumbent):
Arizona: Mark Kelly* (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents Republicans have their eye on unseating. Kelly, who has served only two years after winning a special election, has to face Arizona voters again to serve a full six-year term.
Kelly is up against Trump-backed venture capitalist Blake Masters. Masters earned Donald Trump’s backing partly because he has supported the former president’s baseless claims of election fraud. In an interview with NBC News, Masters said he would have objected to the certification of the 2020 election had he been a senator at the time.
Takeaways: In debate, Arizona secretary of state race all about 2020 election denials
Master’s nomination could be precarious for Republicans who are set on reclaiming the Senate majority. Though GOP voters outnumber Democratic voters in Arizona, Kelly leads Masters by 7 percentage points, 49%-42%, according to a poll conducted by Suffolk University and The Arizona Republic.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC with ties to McConnell, cancelled more than $9 million in reservations for television ads, Axios first reported . The move comes after the PAC already cut roughly $8 million in the state in August, suggesting the PAC is pulling out of the race.
TV ads, takeout food, ‘campaign attire’: Here’s how 2022 midterm candidates are spending their money
Georgia: Raphael Warnock* (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., is in the same boat as Kelly. After winning a special election in 2020, he’s running again in November to serve a full six-year term.
Georgia GOP voters have nominated former NFL running back Herschel Walker to take on Warnock. Once a Republican stronghold, Georgia has become a competitive battleground after Biden won the Peach State in 2020 – the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won here in 28 years.
Walker, Trump’s pick, is running a tight race against Warnock. Despite Republican concerns over his competency as a candidate because he is a political novice, Walker boasts name recognition that could be enough to propel him over the finish line in November.
Tempering expectations in advance of a debate between the two candidates in October, Walker said at a press conference that “I’m not that smart,” and that Warnock will “embarrass me at the debate.”
Up for debate?: Midterm candidates dispute rules and dodge debates in a new campaign normal
Warnock leads Walker by 5 percentage points at 46%-41% according to a poll conducted by Fox News; that’s within the poll’s margin of error. With nearly two months of campaigning for both of the candidates, the race is expected to be just as close on election night.
Nevada: Cortez Masto* (D) vs. Laxalt (R)
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., will be facing off against her Republican opponent, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, in a race national Republicans have identified as their best chance to flip.
The race between the two candidates is practically tied. Laxalt leads Cortez Masto by only 1 percentage point. at 42%-41% according to a poll by Emerson College with 8 News Now and The Hill, well within the margin of error.
The economy is top issue for most Nevadan voters at 42%. Laxalt has centered his campaign on economic concerns, placing blame on Cortez Masto and Biden for high inflation rates.
But abortion ranks second at 18% of voters according to the poll.
Abortion could prove to be pivotal in the Silver State. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade – which had established a constitutional right to an abortion – could swing voters in Cortez Masto’s favor.
Related: Channeling abortion outrage, Democratic women push for upsets in Senate elections
Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) vs. Oz (R)
Pennsylvania’s Senate race is open after Pat Toomey, R-Pa., announced his retirement. Democrats saw a chance to flip Toomey’s seat blue in one of the most consequential swing states. Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is narrowly leading his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 2 percentage points at 45%-43% according to a poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill.
It’s a remarkable change as Fetterman previously led Oz by several percentage points in other recent polls. Oz has managed to narrow the gap through a surge of spending from the GOP and health complications for Fetterman.
How Oz closed the gap: Is it a warning sign for Democrats?
Fetterman has recently returned to the campaign trail after a three-month hiatus after a stroke.
More: John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz exchange viral troll campaigns over traditional debate
Oz has insisted on a broadcasted debate between him and Fetterman in September, to which Fetterman declined, citing concerns over his stroke. The Oz campaign seized upon his health conditions and has attacked him for it.
“We will pay for any additional medical personnel he might need to have on standby,” the campaign said, alluding to Fetterman’s health.
A closer look at Pennsylvania: At rally for Fetterman in Pennsylvania – and beyond – abortion takes center stage
Fetterman has vowed to debate Oz, but not as early as he would like. The two candidates agreed on a televised debate on Oct. 25.
New Hampshire: Hassan* (D) vs. Bolduc (R)
In New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., faces an uphill battle after a poll by Saint Anselm College found voters have a low approval rating of her at 44%.
Hassan will be taking on Don Bolduc, a Trump-style candidate who won the Granite State’s Senate GOP primary on Tuesday. Bolduc’s victory was an outcome establishment Republicans tried to avoid after pouring in money, believing his long-shot chances of being elected could jeopardize their plans to reclaim Senate control.
Democrats have attacked Bolduc for comments he made towards Hassan, telling WMUR that Hassan should “get over it” in regards to abortion; 71% of likely voters in the Granite State identify as “pro-choice” according to the same Saint Anselm College poll.
The lateness of New Hampshire’s primary means Hassan and Bolduc have fewer than two months to campaign before the general election on Nov. 8.
That compressed time frame is more of a challenge for Bolduc who is starting the campaign trail with a significantly smaller war chest compared to Hassan: having around $83,000 cash on hand compared to Hassan’s more than $7 million.
Hassan leads Bolduc by more than 8 percentage points at 49.6%-41.2% according to a poll conducted by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe.
Among independent voters, Hassan holds a strong lead over Bolduc, an indication that the fears of establishment Republicans could come to fruition. Hassan leads Bolduc by 16 percentage points with independents, at 49%-33% according to the same poll.
Wisconsin: Johnson* (R) vs. Barnes (D)
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent on this list. After reneging on a self-imposed limit of 12 years in office, Johnson announced he would be running for a third term, saying in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal that the country “is in too much peril.”
Johnson is running against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the state’s first Black lieutenant governor, who would be the state’s first Black senator if he unseats Johnson.
Biden won Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point in 2020 – as did Trump in 2016 – making this year’s Senate race anyone’s game.
On Labor Day, Biden stopped by Milwaukee to deliver a speech celebrating union members and continuing his attacks on “extreme-minded Republicans.” Barnes was absent from the event and cited “a pretty packed schedule,” to WISN 12 News.
But while Biden’s approval rating has been unfavorable, Wisconsin voters have been cool on Johnson as well. Johnson had a 37% approval rating among likely voters, according to a poll released on Tuesday from Spectrum News and Siena College.
Despite his approval rating, the race is neck-and-neck according to polls. Barnes leads Johnson by just 1 percentage point at 48%-47%, according to the same poll, well within the margin of error.
The race in November is expected to be just as close; Republicans are focusing on Barnes’ previous support of left-wing movements such as defunding the police and abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
North Carolina: Beasley (D) vs. Budd (R)
In North Carolina, Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley will be battling for GOP Sen. Richard Burr’s seat after he announced he would not be seeking a fourth term.
Beasley has significantly outraised Budd – by more than double – as of June 30. But North Carolina has not sent a Democratic senator to Washington since 2008.
Trump recently came down to the Tar Heel State to stump for North Carolina Republicans, Budd included.
Related: Donald Trump embraces QAnon at North Carolina rally as ties to violence raise concern
The race is virtually tied with Beasley leading Budd by one percentage point at 49%-48% according to a poll released by Civiqs, within the poll’s margin of error.
“The state does have a sizable unaffiliated voter bloc, and the key for Beasley is to win over those voters, particularly in suburban Charlotte and Raleigh, while also picking off moderate Republicans who Budd turns off,” Taylor wrote. “The fundamentals of the race still slightly favor Budd, but if this turns out to be a nontraditional year, that may not hold.”
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Senate control is a coin flip: Races to watch in midterm elections
The post Control of the Senate is now a coin flip: These are the midterm election races to watch appeared first on YF-USA.
