Emmanuel Macron's statements about a potential acquisition of Société Générale by the Spanish bank Santander shook the banking world. The prospect seems unlikely for now, but it has revived speculation about consolidation in the European banking sector.

A Banking Sector in Turmoil

During an interview with Bloomberg TV, Emmanuel Macron raised the possibility of a French bank being acquired by another European institution. Although he did not explicitly mention Société Générale, his comments were enough to stir the sector. "It's part of the market, acting as Europeans means you need consolidation," he said. This simple sentence was enough to trigger renewed interest around the French bank.

Société Générale stands out among the large banks listed on the CAC 40 due to its low market capitalization. With a capitalization of 22 billion euros, it is valued much lower than its competitors BNP Paribas (80 billion euros) and Crédit Agricole SA (47 billion euros). This low valuation theoretically makes it more accessible to a potential foreign buyer. Furthermore, Société Générale's stock remains 15% below its pre-pandemic level, further enhancing its attractiveness to potential investors.

Consolidation in the European banking sector is a recurring topic, often supported by the European Central Bank (ECB). No bank on the European continent, with the exception of HSBC, is among the top 15 banks worldwide in terms of market capitalization. This situation encourages consideration of mergers to create more competitive entities on a global scale.

What Does the Future Hold for Société Générale?

The health crisis has also played a role in giving banks more room to maneuver thanks to rising interest rates, which could facilitate takeover operations. However, regulatory differences between European countries, such as fixed rates in France as opposed to variable rates elsewhere, complicate the potential synergies of a cross-border takeover.

Jean-Laurent Bonnafé, CEO of BNP Paribas, highlighted this difficulty at the group's general meeting: "Only a domestic player can buy another domestic player." This remark clearly illustrates the obstacles facing a takeover operation between major European banking institutions.

Speculation about a possible takeover of Société Générale highlights the challenges facing the French bank. Although Emmanuel Macron's statement fueled rumors, such an operation seems unlikely in the immediate future. Regulatory differences and low expected synergies constitute major obstacles to such a transaction.

Meanwhile, Société Générale continues to navigate a complex banking environment marked by fluctuating valuations and European consolidation challenges. The future of the French bank remains uncertain, but recent discussions show that the European banking sector is constantly evolving. The coming years will tell if conditions become more favorable to cross-border mergers or if European banks will continue to evolve primarily within their national borders.