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Windfall tax on crude, diesel, ATF exports hiked; Brokerage sees an upside in this stock

The Centre on Monday raised the Windfall Tax levied on domestically produced crude oil as well as on the export duty of diesel and ATF, in line with escalating international oil prices. 

According to a notification issued by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, on January 02, 2023, the Windfall tax on crude oil has been increased to ₹ 2100 per tonne from ₹ 1700 per tonne. 

The levy on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) has been hiked to ₹ 4.5 per litre from the existing ₹ 1.5 per litre. Further, the export of high-speed diesel will now attract a tax of ₹ 7.5 per litre instead of ₹ 5 per litre. The revised tax rates are applicable from January 03, Tuesday. 

The special Additional Excise Duty on petrol continues to remain unchanged at ‘Nil’. The government drastically slashed the windfall profit tax on December 15, 2022, on Crude oil from ₹ 4900 per tonne to ₹ 1700. 

Meanwhile, ONGC is Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ top oil and gas pick for 2023. It has given a target of ₹ 198.00 per share, which indicates an upside of 32.35% as compared to its closing price of ₹ 149.60 apiece on Tuesday. 

The brokerage said that the year 2023 is likely to be a defining year for ONGC with two prominent triggers – an expected rise in domestic oil & gas production and a possible floor on gas realisation. 

However, capital misallocation, increase in windfall taxes or sharp decline in oil prices, and non-implementation of a floor for APM gas are key downside risks, it said. The windfall tax or Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) is revised every fortnight. 

“We expect the windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production levied by the government in 2022 to be phased out in 2023 with moderating prices,” Fitch Ratings said in its APAC Oil & Gas Outlook 2023. 

Written by Simran Bafna 

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