Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
#SPX | One of the Last Big Bears on Wall Street Turns Bullish on US #Stocks – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8sIIPwrtA8 pic.twitter.com/GxO16RmFjk
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
Related Articles
For the second time in six months, the Nasdaq has gone from 'extreme' oversold to 'extreme' overbought in less than four weeks. pic.twitter.com/6twhq6gVKB
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) May 20, 2024
#NVDA | #Nvidia earnings could spark $200 billion swing in shares, options show – Reutershttps://t.co/f6hKxz4cPJ pic.twitter.com/tyCe1NU6Gm
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
Treasuries fell for a third day on Monday, paring last week’s rally in US bonds on signs of easing inflationary pressures. https://t.co/x5T17NKE3n
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 20, 2024
It’s PhDs Against MBAs in Credit Investing as Quants Jump In – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
*Systematic money managers, making fast decisions about corporate bonds to buy and sell using complicated algorithms, have seen their assets more than double over the last year https://t.co/qrS1uKLrkC pic.twitter.com/vPyl0p6UIm
Economic Indicators and Prospects
DEUTSCHE: “.. We see the earnings cycle having plenty of legs. .. Macro upgrades likely have further to go. .. we raised our base case for $SPX EPS from $250 to $258 (+13% vs 2023) .. Adopting the top of the range as our year-end target: S&P 500 at 5500.” [Chadha] pic.twitter.com/AzJDV5ZIym
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2024
More and more credit card borrowers are maxed out, with delinquencies beginning to rise, particularly within younger generations
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 19, 2024
Source: NY Fed pic.twitter.com/B8Pozn29Ne
Deterioration in a Range of US Labor Market Surveys pic.twitter.com/fdt38Af82p
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) May 20, 2024
*Focus on Inflation
US breakeven inflation rates.. 2.3-2.4% .. not moving up despite the big jump in commodity prices pic.twitter.com/sQ10HwaNRA
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) May 20, 2024
Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% in April from a year earlier.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 20, 2024
Most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April
That would put the 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2%https://t.co/eLc12D78jL https://t.co/Gml0D4gT4a pic.twitter.com/Y3NbuhYmf1
GOLDMAN: “.. The Federal Reserve will not be in the first wave of cutters because of the pickup in sequential core inflation during Q1. .. However, we also estimate that the market-based core PCE index .. rose just 0.18%, a pace that would be quite consistent with a July cut if… pic.twitter.com/9bBePTRWnj
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 20, 2024
Housing
Housing May 20th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 36.0% Year-over-year https://t.co/jfauG84zI6 pic.twitter.com/BLYaTH7t3t
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 20, 2024
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April; California Home Sales Up 4.4% YoY in April https://t.co/YgDkGEQv7j pic.twitter.com/JCzpDIYIWV
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) May 20, 2024
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy, Outlook for Inflation. Speaking with Mike McKee on Bloomberg Television, Fed's Mester also says three rate cuts in 2024 is probably no longer appropriate. https://t.co/CVWm9p50An via @YouTube
— Forex Traderoom (@ForexTraderoom) May 21, 2024
New this morning in @axios via @Courtenay_Brown
— Musadiq Bidar (@Bidar411) May 20, 2024
Exclusive: There's no "urgency" to adjust interest rates, Fed official says https://t.co/E7CfvqIklD
Fed’s ‘Stigmatized’ Emergency Tool for Banks Draws Flak at Own Conference – Bloomberg https://t.co/Cg7AxSQNTG
— Ruthie’s Daughter Mind Travels @ESDRuthieDa (@ESDRuthieDa) May 21, 2024
Fed's Barr says regulators considering 'adjustments' to liquidity rules https://t.co/vefhhDTUFK pic.twitter.com/s2ggzYwZ6L
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) May 20, 2024
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Trump last month outraised Biden for the first time in this election, campaign fundraising reports show https://t.co/HiWU0cMOey
— Bloomberg (@business) May 21, 2024
Economists forecast $500bn annual hit from new #Trump tariffs – FThttps://t.co/mWVFbIWgA7 pic.twitter.com/FY3rFkCYul
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged European allies to act together with the US to find a way to unlock the value of around $280 billion in frozen Russian assets https://t.co/v4W7kutOxf
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 20, 2024
Asia
Markets
Chinese #Tech #Stocks Still Have Valuation Appeal After Rally – `Bloomberghttps://t.co/DSkhCO5ZUJ pic.twitter.com/CeHxeM3mwu
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
Apple has launched an aggressive discounting campaign in China as it looks to defend its position in the high-end smartphone market
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) May 20, 2024
from local rivals such as Huaweihttps://t.co/K2Hqh5ft5g pic.twitter.com/GnqoEwksAf
Apple's iPhone price cuts on Tmall during 6.18 period:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) May 21, 2024
iPhone 15 5,999 yuan -23% 4,599 yuan
iPhone 15 Plus 6,999 yuan -20% 5,599 yuan
iPhone 15 Pro 7,999 yuan -24% 6,099 yuan
iPhone 15 Pro Max 9,999 yuan -20% 7,949 yuan#China $AAPL $BABA $JD
#China’s Capital Outflow Surges to Highest Since 2016 in April – Bloomberghttps://t.co/C39B1LEOWO pic.twitter.com/SOlpaodDRY
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
China’s bullion imports slowed last month as demand in the world’s biggest consumer begins to buckle in the face of record prices https://t.co/rMyVtsB1tx
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 21, 2024
The 14-day relative strength index for the #HangSeng gauge has stayed above 70 — a level which indicates the measure is in overbought territory — for most of this month – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
*The benchmark last breached the milestone in January 2023, after which it fell 16%. pic.twitter.com/QlyMf9mk4k
Economic Indicators and Prospects
#SouthKorea’s Early #Trade Data Show Export Momentum Rising – Bloomberghttps://t.co/8RW2FkmRSM pic.twitter.com/k6ZVQnoyg1
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
Wary #China Consumers Face New Hurdle With Soaring Utility Costs – Bloomberghttps://t.co/3YsEiWXwMK
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
South Korea’s consumers turned pessimistic for the first time this year, indicating that their confidence may be fraying as rates stay elevated for an extended period https://t.co/WegOvKjk5H
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 20, 2024
Australia’s consumer confidence dipped as households expressed concern about persistent inflation, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again https://t.co/DmdaQMm8Je
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 21, 2024
Housing
Slump in China's home prices, sales set to worsen this year – Reuters poll https://t.co/0CqAqvkVIw pic.twitter.com/zqt47pmV1C
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 20, 2024
China Developer Vanke Gets New Loan Pushing Total to $1 Billion https://t.co/lch8wdnIHj
— Shehzad Younis شہزاد یونس (@shehzadyounis) May 21, 2024
Monetary Policy
Forex Stability Is What #Japan’s Manufacturers Want Most From #BOJ – Bloomberghttps://t.co/jFSmYneCvL pic.twitter.com/WQbLwBU5ns
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
RBA Resumes Rate-Hike Talk on Renewed Inflation Concerns … BBG
— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) May 21, 2024
RBA resumed a discussion of interest-rate hikes at its May policy meeting before deciding that the case to stand pat was stronger as it aims to avoid “excessive fine tuning.”https://t.co/DITTt2iaOo
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices rose to the highest since late-December as the region’s importers continued to snatch up shipments for delivery over the summer months https://t.co/ydgCAYuTGc
— Bloomberg (@business) May 21, 2024
China sharply criticized the inaugural address of new Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, an early indication he will likely have a rocky relationship with Beijing https://t.co/CAZzFudC6L
— Bloomberg (@business) May 20, 2024
Europe
Markets
Economic Indicators and Prospects
#GERMANY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
*GERMANY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 3.3% Y/Y; EST. -3.1%
UK set for slower inflation than Eurozone and US https://t.co/8VHQpVGMSA
— Financial Times (@FT) May 20, 2024
Denmark’s economy contracts thanks to a decline in pharma production https://t.co/CJ82Ac7pWV via @sanne_wass pic.twitter.com/mgvMbqhMSX
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 21, 2024
Monetary Policy
#ECB’s Kazaks Warns Against Hasty Interest-Rate Cuts After June – Bloomberghttps://t.co/x1vB0fKPlr pic.twitter.com/5e2Jst7k0x
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
A leveraged trade that’s worrying regulators worldwide has caught the attention of the European Central Bank https://t.co/ZYXOka1S5t
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 20, 2024
BoE could be close to cutting rates as inflation eases says deputy governor https://t.co/VqXR6Z5Sw9
— Financial Times (@FT) May 20, 2024
BOE's Broadbent Says UK Interest Rates May Drop This Summer https://t.co/OTij0XjFJL
— Linda P Wang (@lindapwang) May 20, 2024
Fiscal Policy
Italy's large deficit, debt could erode investor confidence, IMF warns https://t.co/mzlylVfaJm pic.twitter.com/HKzdDejB5t
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 20, 2024
UK Voters See Tax Hikes Likely Whoever Wins Election, Poll Shows https://t.co/I5KzXUoU64
— Shehzad Younis شہزاد یونس (@shehzadyounis) May 21, 2024
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
G7 warms to plan for Trump-proofing Ukraine aid https://t.co/i3rwEmU3Nt
— Financial Times (@FT) May 19, 2024
Germany warms to US plan to tap frozen Russian assets for Ukraine funds https://t.co/MlC8Vp9Dmz via @v_dendrinou @mcnienaber @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/hI2UR7nPns
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) May 21, 2024
#Russia Temporarily Allows Gasoline Exports After Meeting Local Demand#ootthttps://t.co/dtqrMkflnC
— Giovanni Staunovo (@staunovo) May 20, 2024
Other Areas And Global Economy
#WeekAhead Preview: Week 21 (2024)
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 20, 2024
#FOMC Minutes
U.K., Canadian and Japanese CPI
#BOK and #RBNZ Meetings
G-7 Finance Ministers Meeting
Central Bankers Speeches
…https://t.co/Td0EJRWFUk
Report: #Israel moves to more limited #Rafah assault plan, US will not object – Times of Israelhttps://t.co/8FyHmW2ot2
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
Khamenei’s Confidant Takes Key Role in Iran as Succession Looms https://t.co/bJ7kGhafH4
— sonisolan (@SoniSolan) May 20, 2024
ICC Seeks Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas Leaders https://t.co/lJltJO82nj
— sonisolan (@SoniSolan) May 20, 2024
*Crypto
Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
Investors Pile Into #Bitcoin: Over $1 Billion Inflows Fuel #ETF Rally, Price Tops $71,000 – Bitcoinisthttps://t.co/Ifayvfbeaq pic.twitter.com/vG77JEfybR
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
#Cryptocurrency #ETP Weekly Inflows Rise to $955.7 Million – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/aRBCbLrFPE
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) May 21, 2024
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here
