Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Israel Latest
Geopolitics
– Israeli military says it killed a Hamas commander
— Bloomberg (@business) November 7, 2023
– Biden administration’s $14 billion aid request for Israel would significantly expand its missile defenses
Our coverage is free to read: https://t.co/ndDm6qMBIo
Israel has surrounded Gaza City and is moving in for what is likely to be the 'most intense fighting yet.'
— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 6, 2023
Sky's @DominicWaghorn shares the latest on the Israel-Hamas conflict.https://t.co/J16FdwGH04
Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/5oIgn7pdKZ
Americas
Markets
'Corporate America is delivering the bleakest sales reports in four years this earnings season, a sign that weakening consumer demand is limiting companies' ability to raise prices further.' https://t.co/pbSZfEzBQB pic.twitter.com/YyP5yzlLa5
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 6, 2023
LARGEST CUTS TO S&P 500 EPS ESTIMATES OVER THE FIRST MONTH OF A QUARTER SINCE Q2 2020
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) November 7, 2023
During the month of October, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the fourth quarter by a larger margin than average.
The Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS… pic.twitter.com/xAQ2OHT9WG
The "bull market" of 2023 as visualized by new highs vs new lows on the $NASDAQ
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 7, 2023
Not much of a bull market at all as risk appetite has been very subdued outside of a handful of stocks
Most bull markets have much more new highs than new lows for an extended period of time pic.twitter.com/hXcEC3UBcv
Economic Indicators and Prospects
The holiday spending outlook is sluggish across thousands of retailers: CNBC Supply Chain Surveyhttps://t.co/SiWX4XnW5v
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
#Fed Says Tight Credit Standards, Weak Demand Persist at US Banks – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
https://t.co/X39xNN2yX4 pic.twitter.com/udpiVs56gY
The ongoing tightening of credit conditions suggests that C&I Loan growth could contract again in the coming quarters. pic.twitter.com/k5vUJOGS1m
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
Global Supply-Chain Pressure Hits Record Low, NY #Fed Gauge Shows – Bloomberghttps://t.co/1YP2j8TxAI pic.twitter.com/8qQb7nU5Qs
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
The US unemployment rate is up 50bps from its cycle low….this suggests a recession is knocking on the door.
— Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) November 6, 2023
If history is any guide, ongoing rally in stocks won't be durable and H1 2024 is likely to be rough for equities. pic.twitter.com/vGD5tpy0I6
Housing
Housing November 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Still Increasing, Up 0.8% Week-over-week https://t.co/dBbM6TCPs8 pic.twitter.com/5Qc6IvZygj
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) November 6, 2023
Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation https://t.co/F191xEsRII
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 7, 2023
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is closely monitoring weaknesses at nonbank financial institutions as the central bank’s policy cools the economy and leads to tighter financial conditions https://t.co/hrEaBlFquD
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 6, 2023
While the US banking sector is stable, growing vulnerabilities leave at least some institutions under a near-term threat of funding pressure and capital shortfalls, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff. https://t.co/lWOKVnJShG
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 6, 2023
According to the DKW model, the real term premium has been the main driver of the rise in nominal yields since July 26 FOMC.https://t.co/CIyUq2PD6Q pic.twitter.com/5ksblyXb1L
— Nicolas Goetzmann (@NicolasGoetzman) November 7, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Shutdown deadline poses test for US Congress: Is compromise possible? https://t.co/B9L5fHck05 pic.twitter.com/it3os8U6Ej
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 6, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her Chinese counterpart will hold two days of talks in San Francisco this week https://t.co/AIDiW9tcWj
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 6, 2023
Asia
Economic Indicators and Prospects
China's October trade balance at 405.47 billion yuan:#Exports -3.1% y/y, Prev. -0.6%;#Imports +6.4% y/y, Prev. -0.8% ;
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
China's October trade balance at $56.53 bln in USD term.#Exports -6.4% y/y, Est. -6.2%;#Imports +3.0% y/y, Est. -6.3%;
1/n #trade #economy pic.twitter.com/LPiYi5maEK
JUST IN
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
China's end-October forex reserves are $3.10122 trillion, vs. the previous $3.11507 tln.
Gold reserves are $142.71 bln vs the previous $131.78 bln, which increased by 0.74 million ounces to 71.2 million ounces.Increase for the 12th consecutive month.
#China $CNH…
#IMF LIFTS #CHINA 2023 GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.4% FROM 5% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
*IMF LIFTS CHINA 2024 GROWTH FORECAST TO 4.6% FROM 4.2%
*IMF LIFTS CHINA GROWTH FORECASTS ON STRONG 3Q, POLICIES
Falling pork prices threaten to push China back into deflation https://t.co/gr2Zn778YQ
— Financial Times (@FT) November 7, 2023
A Japanese labor organization representing retail, restaurant, textile and other industry unions plans to set a 6% pay increase target for annual wage negotiations next spring. https://t.co/xgaWbjKoA0
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 6, 2023
Housing
China #Vanke said it will repay debts on time.#China #property #realestate https://t.co/pA36lYMJFw pic.twitter.com/bmXEfRiAjd
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
China #Vanke says the group's net debt ratio is approximately 53%, which is relatively low compared to the industry average. And the A/L ratio is around 66%, meeting the official "three red lines" indicators and indicating a healthy financial position.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
There are no outstanding…
China Vanke's onshore bonds are rallying.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
2025 April due 3.45% bonds jump 10%,
2025 June due 3.90% bonds rise 5%,
2024 May due 3.40% bonds rebonds over 3%.#China #Vanke #property #realestate #realty https://t.co/pA36lYMJFw pic.twitter.com/pt6XGz1MMF
Monetary Policy
PBOC conducted 353 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Monday. A total 259 of billion yuan will be drained from the market on a net basis as 612 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/8UsYATPwDI
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 7, 2023
Exclusive: China's clashing priorities behind rare money market distress https://t.co/hFBEMHi90e pic.twitter.com/ai2rs2FfEN
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 6, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Philippines aiming to seal "reciprocal" troop pact with Japan https://t.co/ptjzG8CiA0 pic.twitter.com/eFBL4Bdt8P
— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) November 6, 2023
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
#GERMANY SEPT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 1.4% M/M; EST. -0.1% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
*GERMANY SEPT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 3.7% Y/Y; EST. -2.7%
German industry shrinks more than expected amid recession risks https://t.co/xwhUoK4VuS via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/hML4WyuKr0
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 7, 2023
*EURO AREA SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.5% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 7, 2023
*EURO AREA SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES FALL 12.4% Y/Y; EST. -12.5%
Supermarket deals push UK food inflation down to single digits https://t.co/mx3yDSweRq via @KatieLinsell pic.twitter.com/89IPj4VrXN
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 7, 2023
Housing
UK house prices up for the first time in months, Halifax says https://t.co/htPkyGRUOj via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/dv9RKe2wq6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 7, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB must remain vigilant, be ready to hike rates again, Holzmann says https://t.co/xCuGGuDuQi pic.twitter.com/Ly2rrwnA27
— Reuters (@Reuters) November 6, 2023
UK inflation will soon match rest of world, BOE’s Pill says https://t.co/WMND1G3hHi via @tomelleryrees @irinaanghel12 pic.twitter.com/zcr56Iit1R
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 7, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats propose loosening Germany’s constitutional borrowing restrictions to allow a massive increase in public investment, in a push likely to deepen the faultlines in the governing coalition https://t.co/nMkjuViiSW
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) November 6, 2023
Energy
Europe’s natural gas traders are starting to see early signs that demand may pick up this winter, adding to risks in a market that’s been laser-focused on supply shocks https://t.co/r18p7tPTsp via @MaznevaElena @a_shiryaevskaya pic.twitter.com/WLJOzqe6J2
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 6, 2023
Sunak toned down North Sea oil and gas plans after legal advice https://t.co/FkPx169NQw via @alexwickham pic.twitter.com/1Ye7XLWIGr
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 6, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
EXCLUSIVE-RUSSIA'S PUTIN TO STAY IN POWER PAST 2024, SOURCES SAY
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) November 6, 2023
Vladimir Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030, as the Kremlin chief feels he must steer Russia through the most perilous period in… pic.twitter.com/QwFIn4efMA
Other Areas And Global Economy
#WeekAhead Preview: Week 45 (2023)
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) November 5, 2023
U.S. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Powell, Lagarde Remarks and Other Central Banks’ Speeches
#BOC and #BOJ Minutes
Chinese Data
…https://t.co/6HoHDEp6Ol
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here