Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Israel Latest
Geopolitics
Israel's military has been secretive about its "expanded" ground operation in Gaza, but parts of its strategy have become clear in the hours since an Israeli soldier was rescued from a remote location where she'd been held by two Hamas militants.https://t.co/2tcoOBOsve
— Axios (@axios) October 31, 2023
US to send 300 additional troops to Middle East- Pentagon https://t.co/sgCBkrROII pic.twitter.com/DP6lHbWIxv
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 31, 2023
Egypt-Hamas Talks Stalled On Gaza Evacuation Of Foreign Nationals – @FThttps://t.co/hGKdM5vVM5
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
EU Nations Plan To Deliver Gaza Aid By Sea With New Cyprus Corridor – The Telegraphhttps://t.co/AMWRzpS2n2
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 31, 2023
Americas
Markets
Stocks down in Aug, Sept, and Oct?
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 31, 2023
Pretty rare, but the good news is November has been higher all 5 times. December does fairly well also. pic.twitter.com/PgvpGc1x1X
Stock Buybacks around the world have plunged to a 7-year low pic.twitter.com/QZzDD97Jwt
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 1, 2023
CTAs are now short $25 billion of U.S. Equities, one of the largest short positions in the 8 years pic.twitter.com/Bid1y5R7aw
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 31, 2023
Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said he’s bought “massive” bullish positions in two-year notes, as he’s become more worried about the economy https://t.co/AQVSxn1Dd2
— Bloomberg (@business) October 31, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Chicago business activity index in contraction territory for 14 straight month in October https://t.co/zjd917YbB1
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) October 31, 2023
Wages boost US labor costs, house price inflation picks up https://t.co/8kI7cTXMVQ pic.twitter.com/q66J4xEkpa
— Reuters Politics (@ReutersPolitics) October 31, 2023
MORGAN STANLEY: “While affluent consumers have always made up the largest slice of the spending pie in the US, their post-Covid splurge is unprecedented: The top income quintile accounted for 45% of PCE from 2020-22, vs. an average of ~39% since 2004.” pic.twitter.com/w8wUd8P0q0
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 31, 2023
JPMORGAN: “.. excess household liquidity (cash-equivalent assets) has fallen from peak of $3.4T to $1.0T and should largely be exhausted by 2Q24. Importantly, even as of 2Q23, nearly all the inflation-adjusted excess cash sits with the relatively affluent (top 20%).” [Dubravko] pic.twitter.com/WbUxX7011l
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 30, 2023
Strikes
UAW strikes cost Stellantis about $3.2 billion in revenue https://t.co/Hg0XQEHHTO
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 31, 2023
Housing
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.6% year-over-year in August; New all-time High
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 31, 2023
"Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index … rose 5.6 percent from August 2022 to August 2023 " https://t.co/0Fsp4KexpZ
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September to New High; Up 5.2% Year-over-year
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 31, 2023
Austin Prices Down 11.0% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted https://t.co/2ND9bAZsAl pic.twitter.com/SEU00QgAaJ
Zillow and other real estate stocks plunged after a Missouri jury found the National Association of Realtors and other industry players guilty of colluding to maintain high brokerage commissions https://t.co/BsidxJbk37
— Bloomberg (@business) October 31, 2023
Monetary Policy
Here's everything to expect from the Fed's policy announcement Wednesday https://t.co/GUgnBtGgXv
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 31, 2023
The Fed is poised to hold interest rates steady at a 22-year high for a second meeting, while leaving open the possibility of another hike as soon as December https://t.co/zyXcowysNA
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 31, 2023
Fiscal Policy
White House Warns That Biden Would Veto GOP’s Israel Aid Bill https://t.co/CPiGXGWpIL
— Shehzad Younis شہزاد یونس (@shehzadyounis) November 1, 2023
Energy
US Crude Production Breaks Records As Shale Drives All Growth In Global Oil Supply Over Past Decade https://t.co/lX5jsr1hLm
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 31, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Asia
Markets
Yen Under Renewed Pressure Following BoJ Policy Tweak – FThttps://t.co/qYCLnk6UWO
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 31, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
China Caixin Manufacturing #PMI Oct: 49.5 (est 50.8; prev 50.6)https://t.co/1z36tfpFeM pic.twitter.com/8fC4ZOZFpq
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
South Korea’s exports rose for the first time since late last year in a positive sign for the nation’s growth outlook https://t.co/UJdiPc36KQ
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) November 1, 2023
South Korean Trade Balance (USD) Oct: +1.636B (est -1.700B; prev +3.697B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
– Exports (Y/Y): 5.1% (est 6.1%; prev -4.4%)
– Imports (Y/Y): -9.7% (est -2.1%; prev -16.5%)
NZ Unemployment Rate Q3: 3.9% (est 3.9%; prev 3.6%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 31, 2023
– Employment Change (Q/Q): -0.2% (est 0.4%; prev 1.0%)
– Employment Change (Y/Y): 2.4% (est 3.2%; prev R 4.1%)
– Participation Rate: 72.0% (est 72.5%; prev 72.4%)
Housing
#China's top 100 #property developers' Oct sales slid about 30% from a year earlierhttps://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/ktwYgWalEI
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 1, 2023
From January to October, the total sales of the top 100 Chinese property developers amounted to 5,297.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, with a 2.8 percentage point decrease compared to the previous month, the latest report by CREIS shows.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 1, 2023
Among them, the monthly… pic.twitter.com/pRNkJ3exQZ
China's outstanding property loans decreased by 0.2% y/y as of end-Q3 to 53.2 trillion yuan, indicating that the decline in loan growth slowed down. -PBOC#China #property #realestate #realty
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 1, 2023
Evergrande Proposes Offshore Creditors Get 30% Equity Stake In Subsidiaries – Yahoohttps://t.co/6Ql8HkapgL
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
Australia Building Approvals (M/M) Sep: -4.6% (est 2.5%; prev 7.0%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
– Private Sector Houses (M/M): -4.6% (prev 5.8%)
Monetary Policy
Some Chinese institutions borrow at 50% rate as liquidity squeezed https://t.co/1OSjbUq3Rr pic.twitter.com/VWLrRH0yBq
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 31, 2023
PBOC conducted 391 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Wednesday. A total 109 of billion yuan will be drained from the market on a net basis as 500 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/jDx8bx3PH1
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) November 1, 2023
Australia’s Top Three Inflation Drivers Are Beyond RBA’s Control – BBGhttps://t.co/GYgPpQnBMR
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 31, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Japan Planning JPY13.1 Tln Extra Budget For Economic Measures – @nikkei https://t.co/gs4Q2e4N39
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
Xinhua Headlines: Key meeting sets tone on China's financial developmenthttps://t.co/2BJ1KCdwSn
— Wei Hongtian (@WeiHongtian) November 1, 2023
Energy
China has loosened the rules governing its carbon market to make it easier for power generators to meet rising demand over the winter https://t.co/n0nsW6iZIn
— Bloomberg (@business) November 1, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Euro zone Q3 GDP growth weaker than expected https://t.co/9tAZBpcVID
— GL.D'Amone (@DamoneGl) October 31, 2023
Euro-zone inflation sinks to 2-year low as the economy contracts https://t.co/PjMgULDWZN pic.twitter.com/a2RmYVAzE0
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 31, 2023
Swedish bankruptcies hit the highest level since at least 1999 https://t.co/brK9d2neId via @CharlesCredit pic.twitter.com/OHr9J3EAnH
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 1, 2023
Housing
UK Nationwide House Prices (M/M) Oct: 0.9% (est -0.4%; prev 0.0%; prevR 0.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 1, 2023
– Nationwide House Prices (Y/Y): -3.3% (est -4.8%; prev -5.3%)
UK house prices unexpectedly rise, adding to signs that the property market is stabilizing as the Bank of England nears the end of its rate-hiking cycle https://t.co/dAzXW6qtmi via @LucyGJWhite pic.twitter.com/y7fdMMAhC8
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 1, 2023
Monetary Policy
The ECB would need to see a “very dramatic turnaround” in the region’s economic prospects to lower interest rates, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks says https://t.co/QlfAZbwOTT
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 31, 2023
ECB can’t let up on rates too soon, Bundesbank’s Nagel says https://t.co/FgPK6K91Bw via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/PwAscg7og6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 31, 2023
ECB’s Villeroy says patience needed after a ‘justified’ rate pause https://t.co/GzFLW8lex1 via @JReganReg pic.twitter.com/74olBBAtcJ
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 31, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Next UK government faces a £142 billion spending headache https://t.co/PnDz2k0F6i via @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/N2TGXPVGik
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 1, 2023
Energy
European nations join island states in calling for fossil-fuel phaseout https://t.co/LsAWx5L4a3 via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/AaE96r6XPu
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 31, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
The EU is weighing a new round of restrictions that would hit some €5 billion in trade with Russia https://t.co/g5tlhJ95oM
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 31, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
El Niño is the biggest wildcard for the world’s most consumed edible oil https://t.co/AsHEDkxW3Y via @ByAnuradha @ekoio pic.twitter.com/PVrm6YZfsU
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) November 1, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here
