Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Americas
Markets
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is preparing for a possible 20% drop in the S&P 500https://t.co/sIXBjv8g6p
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 6, 2023
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Trade Deficit decreased to $58.3 Billion in August https://t.co/fCcuFFQrxV pic.twitter.com/fRamDZP5rK
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 5, 2023
*Employment
US jobs growth expected to have slowed in September https://t.co/LHvkvJ3uZJ
— FT Economics (@fteconomics) October 6, 2023
US non-farm payroll preview – here are the ranges of estimateshttps://t.co/UOZ0NcVajL
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 6, 2023
JUST IN: President Biden will make comments on the September jobs report at 11:30 AM ET on Friday.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 6, 2023
This also happens to be 3 hours after the report is released.
President Biden has sees the jobs report well before it was published.
However, he does not always speak after the…
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 207,000 https://t.co/DkCHtii3YL pic.twitter.com/JPK9VmGK0E
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 5, 2023
September @ChallengerGray job cuts +58% year/year vs. +267% in prior month … Tech sector continues to lead with cut announcements at nearly 152k this year, up from nearly 19k cuts announced thru September of last year pic.twitter.com/OalcRtc590
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 5, 2023
Companies in the US's sun belt and rust belt seem to be preparing for mass layoffs. WARN notices, which large firms have to file if they plan to lay off more than 50 people, show that filings by firms in these regions have increased sharply in recent months: @economics pic.twitter.com/BdLxhYUKnk
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 6, 2023
Strikes
UAW, automakers signal progress after days of stalemate, sources say https://t.co/ZavA1dAYr9 via @Reuters
— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) October 5, 2023
Housing
Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 5, 2023
-2.65% mortgage rate in Jan 2021 could have bought you a home worth $641k.
-7.49% mortgage rate today could buy you a home worth $426k.
That's a $215k (34%) decline in purchasing power. pic.twitter.com/whVJPnUr6l
Here's where apartment rents are falling most right now… and note that it's not just the ultra-high-supply Sun Belt markets, but also a growing number of West Coast markets– where construction isn't crazy, but still well above local norms at the same time demand has been… pic.twitter.com/dJtF7jr9Wq
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) October 5, 2023
CRE
Moody's: "Apartment Market Softens, Office Evolution Continues, and Retail On Shaky Ground"
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 5, 2023
Office Vacancy Rate Nears Record High https://t.co/lbOsbbNzsI
Monetary Policy
Fed Discount-Window Loans (USD) W/E 04-Oct: 2.77B (prev 3.19B)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
– Bank Term Funding Loans: 107.7B (prev 107.7B)https://t.co/HdS4B3odz5 pic.twitter.com/Xmqi4LiopA
Bond Sell-Off Bolsters View That Fed Will Call Time On Rate Rises – FT https://t.co/fm0yUALbbl
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said surging US Treasury yields reflect strong economic data as well as heavy supply https://t.co/kM3fbQ8P5j
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 5, 2023
If the bond market keeps this up, the Federal Reserve will have less of a reason to hike rates again. https://t.co/mM32I41NaY
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 5, 2023
Why The Fed Will Again Have To Slash Rates To Zero And Relaunch QE – The Telegraph https://t.co/4XBd6SMXO5
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 6, 2023
Fiscal Policy
GOP senators: McCarthy’s collapse will lead to turmoil, shutdown https://t.co/l0FHkINawA
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Just had a great conversation with President Trump about the Speaker’s race.
— Congressman Troy E. Nehls (@RepTroyNehls) October 6, 2023
He is endorsing Jim Jordan, and I believe Congress should listen to the leader of our party.
I fully support Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.
US Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria – WSJhttps://t.co/H3NOAUif0d
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
Asia
Economic Indicators and Prospects
J.P. Morgan lifts #China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5% from 4.8%, and also raises the 2024 forecast to 4.4% from 4.2%.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) October 5, 2023
Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Y/Y) Aug: 1.1% (est 1.5%; prev R 1.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
– Real Cash Earnings (Y/Y): -2.5% (est -2.1%; prev R -2.7%)
– Household Spending (Y/Y): -2.5% (est -3.9%; prev -5.0%)
Housing
Second-hand #home listings in China's capital #Beijing hit record …https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/6ppIy6QDZZ
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) October 6, 2023
Monetary Policy
RBA: Most Borrowers Well Placed Should Rates Rise Further, Can Cope With Extended Period Of High Rates – Financial Stability Review
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 6, 2023
– Global Financial Stability Risks Are Elevated And Growinghttps://t.co/VPA6ssOqfK
Indonesia’s central bank is set to keep interest rates steady to protect the rupiah from the global market selloffs, Governor Perry Warjiyo says https://t.co/ZkLE7gaV1W
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 6, 2023
The Philippines doesn’t need to tighten monetary policy further, the nation’s economic planning chief said on Friday, pushing back against the central bank’s hawkish bias https://t.co/5s9i9CqKu6
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 6, 2023
Energy
CHEVRON AUSTRALIA LNG WORKERS BACK STRIKE THREAT IN SECOND MEETING
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) October 6, 2023
Full Story → https://t.co/oroU9D4vqb pic.twitter.com/yuSqhkd7kf
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
German industrial orders rebounded in Augusthttps://t.co/OpTQsQicki
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 6, 2023
German factory orders rise in hopeful sign for struggling sector https://t.co/X0t9TfwFUN via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/8ulpVgnBzw
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 6, 2023
Austria is set for recession amid the fallout from ECB rate hikes, Wifo says https://t.co/JEzK1o8eSI via @martoneder pic.twitter.com/VT80aXiqQR
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 6, 2023
Housing
Halifax says downward pressure on UK house prices likely to last into next yearhttps://t.co/FGuoVuGt4d
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 6, 2023
Sweden calls real estate talks with worries mounting https://t.co/3HottHdfEc via @CharlesCredit pic.twitter.com/5c4jmilVSo
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 6, 2023
Monetary Policy
Inflation is falling swiftly but still stands well above our 2% target, Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel tells @jutarnjihr.
— European Central Bank (@ecb) October 6, 2023
We can’t take it for granted that inflation will only go down from now on, and we shouldn’t declare victory prematurely https://t.co/3P1HzAa4aX pic.twitter.com/HbBy3kbH1N
New ECB Interest Rate Hikes Remain Possible, Schnabel Says – BBG https://t.co/YRSJINP2sO
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 6, 2023
ECB’s Herodotou: ECB Policies Are Taming Inflation, But Uncertainty Persists – Yahoo https://t.co/lovnculWou
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 6, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Cost Of Extending UK Business Tax Break ‘Vastly Inflated’, Study Finds – @FThttps://t.co/1uXnu7KqSo
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
Norway’s government will cut spending from its $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund next year amid fear too much money in the economy could spur inflation https://t.co/E4rZODJDPp
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 6, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
Russia To Set Up Permanent Naval Base In Breakaway Georgian Region – FThttps://t.co/DlMdBZ7uPH
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 5, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here