Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
Israel Latest
Geopolitics
#Israel’s Netanyahu, Opposition Agree On Unity Government And War Cabinet After #Hamas Attack – @AP https://t.co/d512iZ1RzT
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
#Iran Knew Hamas Was Planning Attacks, but Not Timing or Scale, U.S. Says – WSJhttps://t.co/fljKi3Nsux
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
Israeli diplomat draws ‘clear link’ to Iran in Hamas attacks https://t.co/HZGDIKnJkA
— POLITICO (@politico) October 11, 2023
Biden Weighs Freezing $6 Billion For Iran After Hamas Attack On Israel – BBG https://t.co/v6EvnpDOKn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
*BLINKEN TO MEET PALESTINIAN, JORDAN LEADERS IN AMMAN FRIDAY:AFP
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
Americas
Markets
Largest US #Banks Grapple With Worst Write-Offs in Three Years – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Mmnx1vxj0b pic.twitter.com/5ZW1J0xQLW
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2023
Hedge Funds continue adding to their short U.S. Treasuries futures position which has now reached the largest short position in history pic.twitter.com/5VtUeUb7JQ
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 11, 2023
US Sold $35 Bln In 10-Year Notes:
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
– High Yield Rate: 4.610% (prev 4.289%)
– Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.50 (prev 2.52)
– Direct Accepted: 20.9% (prev 19.9%)
– Indirect Accepted: 60.3% (prev 66.3%)
– WI: 4.592%
Economic Indicators and Prospects
*US SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. 0.3% – BBG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2023
*US SEPT. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US SEPT. PPI EX FOOD, ENERGY & TRADE RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US SEPT. PPI FINAL DEMAND RISES 2.2% Y/Y; EST. +1.6%
*US SEPT. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY RISES 2.7%…
‘The producer price index for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, marking the third-straight increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4%. Excluding food and energy, the PPI climbed 0.3%.’ 1/2 https://t.co/UdAdt9kEkz
— AnObserver (@WatchingEurasia) October 11, 2023
The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker was 5.2% in September, down slightly from a 5.3% reading for August.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 11, 2023
For people who changed jobs, the tracker was 5.6% in Sept, the same as in Aug. For those not changing jobs, it was 5.0%, down from 5.2% in Aughttps://t.co/ZeEiq84PBC pic.twitter.com/OicMGtvrNg
Wage growth continues to slow down, according to new data from the Indeed Wage Tracker.
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 11, 2023
Year-over-year posted wage growth is running at a 3-month average of 4.3% as of September. It has now retracted more than 80% of its surge from its pre-pandemic pace. pic.twitter.com/NKmOGVHkxg
The U.S. saving rate has dropped *below* its pre-pandemic average, while saving rates in other parts of the world are still elevated relative to pre-pandemic averageshttps://t.co/Rtg9LJ8G7X pic.twitter.com/cG5Ebma98X
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) October 11, 2023
*Focus on CPI
US CPI data due later Thursday – here is the range of estimateshttps://t.co/eaFR8Kwsbc
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 12, 2023
The consensus estimate for tomorrow's inflation report is 3.6% (overall US CPI YoY in September), down from 3.7% in August but up from 3.0% in June. The actual number will be…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 11, 2023
What are the stakes for Thursday's US CPI report?https://t.co/YoPQBjzyS2
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 11, 2023
TD Securities 1/2: This week sees US #CPI, where a "hot" number is needed to keep the #USD's party going. Also keep an eye on financial earnings this week. The focus will shift back to #China, where strong data could start to shift the narrative away from the #USD. pic.twitter.com/el5MopEEkS
— Francesc Riverola – FXStreet.com (@Francesc_Forex) October 11, 2023
JP Morgan Trading Gameplan for CPI Day pic.twitter.com/YB8B8am08p
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 12, 2023
Housing
US #Mortgage Rate Climbs to Fresh Multi-Decade High of 7.67% – Bloomberg
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2023
*The index of home-purchase applications inched up, though remains near the lowest level in almost three decades.https://t.co/fOsdpOi1V0 pic.twitter.com/mJesAJax1k
Monetary Policy
#FOMC Minutes: All Officials Agreed Fed Can 'Proceed Carefully,' Rates Should Stay Restrictive For Some Time
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
– Officials Generally Saw Risks To Goals As More Two-Sided
– Several Officials Sought Shift In Debate From 'How High' To 'How Long'https://t.co/dhZ4chjhjn
Here are the key takeaways from the minutes of the Fed's September rates meeting https://t.co/UmKMlGK3Bl
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Fed's Collins Says Central Bank May Have To Hike Again If Data Calls For It – Yahoo https://t.co/8UMw2sXl3Y
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman says interest rates may need to rise further and stay higher for longer than previously expected to curb inflation https://t.co/tYIj5vJzle
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
BREAKING: Republicans voted behind closed doors to nominate Steve Scalise of Louisiana to be the next US House speaker, succeeding Kevin McCarthy who was deposed by party hardliners last week https://t.co/eE054neqq2 pic.twitter.com/D5A8CSgiH6
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
US Treasury Sec Yellen Plans To Meet China Central Bank Chief Pan In Morocco – BBG https://t.co/lKR26MmWDe
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
US, In Chip War With China, Extends Some Allowances For Asian Allies – WSJ https://t.co/9keqkqShlp
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 12, 2023
Asia
Markets
#China’s mutual fund houses have been accelerating the roll-out of equity fund products since late July, when the country’s top leadership vowed to invigorate the domestic stock market and boost investor confidence, the China Securities Journal reported Thursday.
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
*Link…
Central Huijin, unit of #China's sovereign fund CIC, on Wed increased shareholdings in Big Four state banks and will continue to increase shareholdings of the banks in next six months.https://t.co/haGgRmRP6L pic.twitter.com/LaS1NVbG45
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) October 11, 2023
China's big four banks rallies in HK on Thursday:
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) October 12, 2023
ICBC +4.55%
ABC +2.4%
Bank of China +2.9%
CCB +3.15%#China #banking #stockmarket https://t.co/RBGJ1lMYCO
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Japanese Core Machine Orders (M/M) Aug: -0.5% (exp 0.6%; prev -1.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
-Core Machine Orders (Y/Y) Aug: -7.7% (exp -6.7%; prev -13.0%)
Japanese PPI (Y/Y) Sep: 2.0% (exp 2.4%; prev 3.2%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
-PPI (M/M) Sep: -0.3% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.3%)
#China’s likely to report GDP growth in 3Q above 4% y/y and the data should improve through the rest of the year due to policy incentives, the Securities Daily reported, citing analysts.
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/1akv6D07ua
Housing
Analysis: China property creditors face worsening restructuring terms as sector recovery hopes sour https://t.co/C901gyIJ2H pic.twitter.com/isgM1xcHJW
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 11, 2023
Monetary Policy
PBOC conducted 162 billion yuan of the 7-day RRP on Thursday.
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) October 12, 2023
A total of 346 billion yuan will be drained from the market as 508 billion yuan comes due today.#China #liquidity https://t.co/Vo8AhWrsRJ
PBOC raises the $CNY Central Parity Rate by 3 pips to 7.1776 per USD, 1,170 pips stronger than market expectations.#China $USDCNY $USDCNH pic.twitter.com/ztnwsjI7Mx
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) October 12, 2023
BOJ'S NOGUCHI SAYS WAGE GROWTH MOMENTUM IS BIGGEST FOCUS FOR JAPAN ECONOMY
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) October 12, 2023
Full Story → https://t.co/FcbG2vBtmW
Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed… pic.twitter.com/K2tNn9Eqdx
Singapore’s central bank is set to leave its monetary policy unchanged for a second straight meeting as core inflation wanes and economic growth remains fragile https://t.co/VxFCPYlkXl
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Fiscal Policy
#China Budget Revision Would Mark ‘Sea Change’ in Fiscal Strategy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/4ftorDehgw pic.twitter.com/veyA9kSOAR
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
#China On Course to Sell Record #Yuan Sovereign Debt Offshore – Bloomberghttps://t.co/aOwt1vTYgL pic.twitter.com/GY319fePSt
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
ICYMI – Japan's government is considering extending fuel subsidieshttps://t.co/oUtWxYB0gT
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 11, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
China to host Belt and Road forum in Beijing Oct 17-18 https://t.co/pAiQFhkwbW pic.twitter.com/YKe0Zjibun
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 11, 2023
China to host Belt and Road forum in Beijing Oct 17-18 – @MFA_China
— Jamal Dobahi جمال الدوبحي (@dobahi) October 11, 2023
A select list of leaders has been invited, sources say, with Russian President Vladimir Putin among those attending
China’s Belt and Road generated over US$2tril in contracts pic.twitter.com/5OLeSEULCM
Europe
Economic Indicators and Prospects
Commenting on today’s GDP figures Darren Morgan, Director of Economic Statistics, ONS said: (1/3) pic.twitter.com/0VvqGbA5i4
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 12, 2023
UK Monthly GDP (M/M) Aug: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev -0.5%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 12, 2023
– GDP (3M/3M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%)
– GDP (Y/Y) Aug: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.0%)
Stick wages? Eurozone wages slowed to 3.6% in September according to the Indeed wage tracker data. Decent correlation with negotiated wages and hourly wage costs. The ECB assumes compensation per employee to rise 4.3% next year. Colour me sceptical. pic.twitter.com/8xFDjcaumW
— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) October 11, 2023
ECB's de Cos: Negative GDP Reading For Q3 Possible – FXShttps://t.co/rqRCOtafsn
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
Housing
More surveyors report falling UK house prices than at any time since 2009 – FThttps://t.co/4ceqxVTGSB pic.twitter.com/fFTJXPimGv
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
UK housing market shows signs of improving after BOE holds rates https://t.co/cATjeqUOXk via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/zqi6bhlt2F
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 12, 2023
Monetary Policy
ECB's Stournaras: See No Value In Bringing Forward End Of PEPP
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 12, 2023
– See No Reason To Raise Banks' Reserve Requirements
#ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER CENTENO SPEAKS TO BLOOMBERG TV
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) October 12, 2023
*ECB'S CENTENO: CURRENT STANCE WILL GET INFLATION TO TARGET
*ECB'S CENTENO: WE NEED TO BE PREDICTABLE ON POLICY
ECB needs patience before declaring inflation win, Vujcic says https://t.co/plMus4Ad3j via @jrandow @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/1TMraN2vud
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 11, 2023
The ECB should consider only paying interest on 90% of the money banks keep in their deposit accounts, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann says https://t.co/fjUprSPS0N
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Bundesbank's Nagel tells me: "Pausing could be an option"
— Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@CNBCJou) October 11, 2023
"The [inflation] beast is still there but to a certain extent we have tamed the beast" #ECB pic.twitter.com/KS8WB4qETv
Italian bond spread will ‘absolutely’ focus the ECB, Makhlouf says https://t.co/tBF1LniVlZ via @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/Kh4KjFPeWp
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 12, 2023
Russia imposed some capital controls to stem a drop in the ruble, the third-worst-performing currency in emerging markets this year https://t.co/bDBhubBBjl
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Fiscal Policy
Italy’s Parliament backs Meloni’s plan to widen deficit https://t.co/kk6LbIDB6m via @Alemrome @FlaviaRotondi pic.twitter.com/q8c0FvyRdd
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 12, 2023
Energy
EU floats new option to bridge French-German divide on nuclear https://t.co/2VtwMOzYNt via @johnainger pic.twitter.com/a3y3DxBQ9O
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 12, 2023
Qatar agrees to sell liquefied natural gas to France for 27 years in one of its biggest supply deals, as Europe continues to move away from Russian gas https://t.co/2QOzhDAKmY
— Bloomberg (@business) October 11, 2023
Trade, Politics and Geopolitics
EU-US Team Up Against Chinese Commodities – Politico https://t.co/ZmKLkrBuWg
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 12, 2023
EU’s Borrell: China Needs To Take EU More Seriously – SCMP https://t.co/oggfBun1iu
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 11, 2023
Other Areas And Global Economy
API inventory moves 10/11/23
— Julianne Geiger (@JuliOnTwtr) October 11, 2023
crude +12.940 million ( )
gasoline +3.645 million
distillates -3.535 million
Cushing -547,000#oott #crudeoil #
#PMI #FactoftheWeek The Global Salary Pressures PMI Comment Tracker dropped sharply to a 28-month low in September, as several key economies recorded a fresh decline in employment numbers #wage #inflation pic.twitter.com/IQCWGvB8kN
— S&P Global PMI (@SPGlobalPMI) October 11, 2023
*Note: Previous briefs can be found here
