"our current activity indicator (CAI) stepped down further in May and turned slightly negative in June and is even lower if we correct for nominal bias in business activity surveys" – Goldman pic.twitter.com/T7YhthsBV2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 12, 2022

June Inflation Estimates

BNP Paribas 8.9%
Citi 8.9%
HSBC 8.9%
TD 8.9%
Goldman 8.9%
Barclays 8.8%
Credit Suisse 8.8%
Jefferies 8.8%
Morgan Stanley 8.8%
SocGen 8.8%
StanChart 8.8%
Unicredit 8.8%
Wells Fargo 8.8%
Nomura 8.8%
BofA 8.7%
ING 8.7%
JPMorgan 8.7%
Natixis 8.6%
Visa 8.6%

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) July 12, 2022

Important context ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release:

Headline inflation from last month will be significantly affected by stale gas price data:

Retail prices have declined from the June avg and declining oil prices and gas futures suggest they have further to fall. pic.twitter.com/3wmwqHzRH3

— Brian Deese (@BrianDeeseNEC) July 12, 2022

JPMorgan CEO Dimon: Fed Inflation Forecasts Are Too Optimistic – Figaro
– Clouds Gathering Over Global Economy
– Could Turn Into A Hurricane https://t.co/nDHHwIDlJS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 13, 2022

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin keeps his options open on how big the central bank should go when it raises interest rates later this month, following an increase of 75 basis points in June https://t.co/wbTggkJErz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) July 13, 2022

The White House is going to warn Americans that a BA5 surge is coming. Some experts think it’s already here. ⁦@AshishKJha46⁩ tells me it’s the most “immune-evasive” sub-variant we have seen. He and Drs. Fauci & Walensky will brief reporters this a.m.https://t.co/mJyl0S8qAl

— Sheryl Gay Stolberg (@SherylNYT) July 12, 2022

Biden Administration Outlines Strategy to Manage BA.5.#US #COVID19https://t.co/d70hc4jDXC

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) July 12, 2022

Joe Biden risks political embarrassment unless his trip to Saudi Arabia results in US gasoline prices swiftly coming back to Earth. The outcome is far from guaranteed. https://t.co/0H9y3XqOTp

— Bloomberg Middle East (@middleeast) July 13, 2022

#Shanghai Covid Cases Steady, Though Lockdown Angst Remains – Bloomberghttps://t.co/92hSXGGkz0

— China Watcher (@chinanews_en) July 13, 2022

Stocks in Taiwan rallied after authorities pledged to prop up domestic shares for the first time since the the early days of the pandemic in 2020 https://t.co/tyigEju5gR

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) July 13, 2022

Japan Business Mood Subdued On Chip Shortage, Raw Material Costs – RTRS https://t.co/SfjIOsymYG

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 12, 2022

South Korea’s unemployment rate remained below 3% in June, suggesting the labor market is largely holding up for now in the face of rising inflation and interest rates https://t.co/VAbqUGB4fE

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) July 13, 2022

The Bank of Korea doubles the margin of its latest rate hike in line with a global trend of larger policy moves, as it stepped up its battle against inflation now running at a 23-year high https://t.co/hoPoDWNSR2

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) July 13, 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.50 percent to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment. Read more here: https://t.co/InqlCgz6SI pic.twitter.com/2vHQwfpyfA

— Reserve Bank of NZ (@ReserveBankofNZ) July 13, 2022

New Zealand’s central bank raises interest rates by half a percentage point for a third straight meeting and says it will continue to tighten policy “at pace” until it’s sure inflation is contained https://t.co/CoeHQFDH1e

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) July 13, 2022

Euro and dollar have almost reached parity: Brussels Edition https://t.co/qnTaT29vHZ pic.twitter.com/gdUedNUsK4

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 13, 2022

GDP grew 0.5% in May with services up 0.4%, manufacturing up 1.4% and construction up 1.5% https://t.co/Bj1wiA6D7w pic.twitter.com/Qxng0HMrrA

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 13, 2022

Another reason to love your local GP – they were the main reason for unexpected economic growth in May pic.twitter.com/CpWOYD7JUN

— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) July 13, 2022

Surge in visits to doctors drives unexpected jump in UK economy https://t.co/ztR6atCuoQ via @ZeinabDiouf pic.twitter.com/ZrEnPT6mi7

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 13, 2022

BOE’s Bailey says goal is to curb inflation, ‘no ifs or buts’ https://t.co/ZfwEj9jQrb via @_DavidGoodman @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/CahG5unJ6F

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 13, 2022

UK Economic Strategy Needs More Than Tax Cuts, Warn Three Reports – FT https://t.co/16gYvdxv2p

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 12, 2022

The planned reopening of a key Russian gas pipeline next week may be a bigger deal for the euro than the first interest-rate hike in a decade by the ECB https://t.co/BzBeLhrRG0

— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) July 13, 2022

French President Emmanuel Macron will host the ruler of the oil-rich UAE in Paris next week, sources say, as European countries seek alternatives to Russian energy amid the war in Ukraine https://t.co/HBMbmuhZ4K

— Bloomberg (@business) July 12, 2022

Italy’s Draghi says he won’t lead government if Five Star leaves https://t.co/HZbHhHlebU via @chiaraalbanese @Alemrome pic.twitter.com/4GXXXwe8EV

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 13, 2022

Irish government wins confidence vote in Parliament https://t.co/qnlpC5LdmE via @MorwennaConiam pic.twitter.com/ZmrQkCxa6d

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 13, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit Iran next week for talks with his counterpart Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Kremlin says https://t.co/Ur6UWZcyAe

— Bloomberg Middle East (@middleeast) July 12, 2022

#OOTT | Libya’s Political Chaos Is Worsening A Global Oil Supply Crisis – BBG https://t.co/UeMAYxYNKk

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 13, 2022