With the US and Canada on holiday today, the trading activity was light. US major stock and futures exchanges were closed for the day. Banks and businesses were closed. The bond market was shuttered as well.
The forex market was open and at the end of the day, the AUD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies. The JPY was the weakest followed closely by the EUR. The USD was lower with most of the decline vs. the AUD (-0.48%). Other changes for the day were 0.16% or lower.
Trading low to high ranges were also limited. All major pairs vs the USD and other cross currency pairs had ranges well short of what is the norm over the last month of trading. The biggest mover was the AUDUSD with a low to high range that was 68% of the norm. The EURUSD was only 41%, and the GBPUSD was only 37% of normal.
Technically,
- AUDUSD - The AUDUSD moved up to test its 200 hour MA (currently at 0.6921) and found sellers against the MA level (see post here). The price is trading at 0.6910 into the close for the day, but above the 100 hour MA at 0.68958. The 100 and 200 hour MA will act as barometers for buyers and sellers in the new trading day. Move above 200 hour MA is more bullish. Move below the 100 hour MA is more bearish.
- EURUSD: The EURUSD's high for the day stalled a few pips short of its 200 hour MA (currently at 1.07027), and spent the rest of the day mostly below the 100 hour MA at 1.06864 currently. IN the new trading day, a move above those MAs is needed to tilt the technical bias in the short term higher. Absent that and the sellers are still more in control. PS the 200 hour MA stalled the rally on Thursday as well
- USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower today but when it reached its 100 hour MA, the price decline stalled and the price moved higher. The 100 hour MA is at 133.996 and moving higher. The currently price is at 134.257. Stay above the 100 hour MA will have traders wrestling with resistance against a swing area between 134.49 and 134.76.
- USDCHF. The USDCHF is skimming along its 200 hour MA at 0.9228. The price has traded above and below the level but with limited downside momentum on the break. IF the price does move higher, traders will be eyeing the 100 hour MA at 0.9246 as the next upside target to get to and through.
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 7:30 PM ET this evening
- German S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, 3:30 AM ET. Estimate 48.0 versus 47.3 last month
- UK S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, 4:30 AM ET. Estimate 49.0 versus 47.0 last month
- German ZEW economic sentiment, 5 AM ET. Estimate 22.0 versus 16.9 last month
- Canada CPI, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.7% MoM versus -0.6% last month. YoY estimate 6.1% versus 6.3% last month
- US S&P global flash manufacturing PMI, 9:45 AM ET. Estimate 47.1 versus 46.9 last month
- US existing home sales, 10 AM ET. Estimate 4.10M annualized rate versus 4.02M last month
- U.S. Treasury auctions off to your notes at 1 PM ET
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