Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist and Liconln Project co-founder, has repeatedly warned about what he claims are the dangers of Donald Trump being reelected. Recently, he shared a strategy on how he believes America can avoid this. He encouraged Trump’s Republican opponent, Nikki Haley, to continue in the GOP primaries.
The Lincoln Project’s Tactics
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Previously, the Lincoln Project released a video during a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) event. In it, they used deepfake technology to create a video of Trump’s father, Fred, criticizing his son. Fred says, “Donny, I always knew you’d blow it. You were always a fool – a joke, low rent.”
Opposition Within the GOP
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Recent polling data shows that many Republicans claim they would not support Trump in a future general election. Speaking about this, Madrid claimed that this idea has recently been growing in popularity. He suggested a targeted effort could weaken Trump’s position even further.
Challenges Facing President Biden
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Madrid also spoke about how President Biden is dealing with several obstacles, too. He spoke about how many minority voters appear to be moving away from the Democrat party, along with a “depressed base turnout.” Madrid also highlighted third-party candidates as another difficulty for Biden. However, he claimed that GOP deserters could solve two of these challenges.
Madrid’s Comments
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Madrid said that Republicans who vote for any candidate other than Trump “are significantly less likely to return to him in the general.” He said, “This is where resources should be spent. Everything else is a distraction. GOP defections will be the single largest factor in the November outcome.”
Using Statistics
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Madrid added, “In Feb 2020 only 6% of Republican voters were saying they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election. In Feb 2024 we are seeing polling consistently at 3X that. Most/many will go back but it’s far stronger positioning to beat him if there’s a targeted effort to get them.”
Conway’s Comments
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George Conway, a conservative lawyer, appeared to agree with Madrid. He said, “The fact that the number of anti-Trump GOP voters is already so high at this point is actually astonishing, given how far off the radar screen he has been over the past couple of years.” Madrid responded by saying, “Yes. Moving these voters is the single most important factor in ensuring Trump’s defeat.”
The Role of Independent Voters
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Data from early nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire shows that many Republican and Independent voters are casting ballots against Trump. Many of them have said they prefer alternative candidates like Haley. It appears that, in the GOP and among Independent voters, there is a growing sense of unhappiness with Trump.
The Influence of Big Money in Politics
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Several Republican donors have supported Haley’s campaign with a lot of donations. Haley’s campaign has used this to create television ads that criticize her competitors, including Trump. However, despite this, polls and results from early primaries show that Trump is still the leading GOP candidate.
The Shift in Republican Donor Strategy
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Many Republican strategists have said that the GOP needs to work together against Trump. They are trying to avoid the divisions that benefited him in previous primaries. This strategy involves supporting a single strong candidate to present a united front against Trump, a clear change from past election cycles.
The Electability Debate
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However, some people are concerned about Trump’s electability. They claim his legal challenges and poor midterm election performances mean that he will not be able to defeat Biden. They fear that supporting Trump over Haley will prove to do more harm than good in the long run.
Trump’s Strategic Silence and Focused Attacks
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Trump appears to be using the divisions to his advantage. Initially, when potential challengers emerged, Trump stayed relatively silent and focused his criticisms primarily on Ron DeSantis. Political analysts have argued that Trump is relying on his solid base to carry him through a divided series of primaries.
More Spending
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Additionally, Haley’s campaign and super PAC, SFA Fund Inc., have spent more than any other group in the primaries. Some reports suggest they have spent more than $50 million on advertisements. It appears that Haley’s campaign is trying to close the gap between her and Trump.
Primary Election Dynamics
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Despite the massive spending, Haley has only begun to close the gap with Trump in New Hampshire. Organizations like Americans for Prosperity have helped to support her campaign, including spending nearly $23 million in the primaries. Clearly, Haley’s supporters are trying their hardest to change the primary outcomes.
Voter Opinions in Early Primaries
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Exit polls and voter surveys from Iowa and New Hampshire show that many Republicans are casting ballots explicitly against Trump. These polls also showed many Independent voters support Haley, and that may cause GOP primary voters to feel unhappy with Trump. These could prove to be serious vulnerabilities in Trump’s support base.
The Latino Vote’s Influence
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Madrid has previously spoken about the importance of the Latino vote. He is a host of the podcast “The Latino Vote,” where he has spoken about the importance of this demographic group. Madrid claims their vote could decide the outcome of the presidential race and could also affect control over Congress.
Impeachment Inquiry Problem for GOP
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House Republicans, especially those in swing districts, face a unique set of challenges. They must support an impeachment inquiry against President Biden while also avoiding being labeled as extremists. This could alienate moderate voters while also showing undecided voters that the GOP is too divided.
Changes in Anti-Trump Efforts
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Previously, groups like the Club for Growth tried to challenge Trump’s dominance in the GOP primaries. However, these groups, for the most part, have stopped, with many of these opposition leaders recognizing that their strategies are largely ineffective. Even so, there are still groups like the ‘Never Trumpers’ working to defeat Trump still.
The Future of the Republican Party
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Clearly, the GOP is dealing with numerous problems, including internal divisions and the challenge of confronting Trump’s influence. Many people are speculating about how the Party will deal with such challenges or if these moves will even be successful. The 2024 election is set to be one of the most divisive elections in memory.
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