“We’re within the window when an invasion may start at any time ought to [Russian President]

Vladimir Putin

determine to order it.”

He added: “If a Russian assault on Ukraine proceeds, it’s prone to start with aerial bombing and missile assaults that would clearly kill civilians with out regard to their nationality. A subsequent floor invasion would contain the onslaught of a large power. With nearly no discover, communications to rearrange a departure could possibly be severed and business transit halted.”

Allied officers mentioned they’d been informed by the U.S. that Russia may assault Wednesday, although Mr. Sullivan mentioned solely that an invasion may happen in the course of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Till Friday, many U.S. officers and out of doors analysts believed that if Mr. Putin had been to order an invasion, he would possibly await the conclusion of the Video games on Feb. 20 out of deference to Chinese language President

Xi Jinping,

whom he could be disinclined to upstage with a navy incursion.

The U.S. wasn’t closing the door on diplomacy, nevertheless, and President Biden, who’s on the presidential retreat Camp David in rural Maryland this weekend, was anticipated to talk with Mr. Putin on Saturday morning, officers mentioned.

German Chancellor

Olaf Scholz

is scheduled to go to Kyiv on Monday and to satisfy in Moscow with Mr. Putin on Tuesday.

In a name with European leaders on Friday, Mr. Biden mentioned the U.S. now believes Mr. Putin has decided to go forward with an invasion of Ukraine and named particular dates when Washington believed it would occur, in accordance with a senior European supply, briefed on the decision.

Whereas U.S. officers declined to element the brand new intelligence, a few of it seems to include recent indicators that Moscow is getting ready a pretext to invade its neighbor. The intelligence, officers mentioned, has pushed ahead the Biden administration’s understanding of Mr. Putin’s timeline.

“The extent of concern is rising on the imminence” of an invasion, one official mentioned.

Oil costs jumped to recent eight-year highs Friday on fears of an invasion, whereas U.S. shares and bond yields sank, with traders fleeing to safer belongings. The S&P 500 had tumbled 1.9% as of the 4 p.m. ET shut of buying and selling. The Nasdaq Composite erased 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Common misplaced 504 factors, or 1%.

Mr. Sullivan mentioned the disposition of Russian forces round Ukraine’s borders confirmed Russia was positioned to mount a serious navy motion in Ukraine any day now, however mentioned the U.S. didn’t know whether or not Mr. Putin had made a “ultimate choice.”

“Russia may select in very brief order to begin a serious navy motion towards Ukraine,” he mentioned. “We’re prepared both approach.”

Mr. Sullivan mentioned the U.S. envisioned a large-scale incursion by Mr. Putin. U.S. officers have mentioned that an invasion may lead to 25,000 to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded if Russia mounted an all-out assault and sought to occupy the whole nation.

“I can’t clearly predict what the precise form or scope of the navy motion shall be…however there are very actual prospects that it’ll contain the seizure of a big quantity of territory in Ukraine and the seizure of main cities together with the capital,” Mr. Sullivan mentioned.

Ukrainian and U.S. officers say Russian motion may additionally take the type of cyberattacks on crucial Ukrainian infrastructure, sabotage, or efforts to undermine the Ukrainian state.

U.S. officers estimate as many as 35,000 Individuals had been in Ukraine at first of the 12 months, though as few as 7,000 are registered with the State Division.

Mr. Sullivan’s feedback echoed an announcement from Secretary of State

Antony Blinken

earlier Friday.

“As we’ve mentioned earlier than, we’re in a window when an invasion may start at any time—and to be clear that features in the course of the Olympics,” Mr. Blinken mentioned in Melbourne, Australia.

Additionally Friday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers Gen. Mark Milley spoke together with his Russian counterpart,

Gen. Valery Gerasimov,

the Pentagon mentioned. The 2 generals “mentioned a number of security-related problems with concern.”

In the meantime, the Pentagon mentioned Friday it might deploy a further 3,000 troops to bolster the defenses of North Atlantic Treaty Group allies that would home and help Individuals evacuating from Ukraine. U.S. officers mentioned earlier this week that a whole bunch of U.S. troops could be deployed inside Poland alongside its border with Ukraine to assist facilitate the secure evacuation of Individuals and others from inside Ukraine.

The U.S. troops aren’t approved to enter Ukraine, nor will any evacuations contain U.S. plane, officers have mentioned.

In warning of the Russian navy buildup, Mr. Sullivan was referring to the deployment by Moscow of greater than 100,000 troops to the border with Ukraine, the motion towards Ukraine of heavy weaponry from bases within the Russian far east, and the motion of Russian troops and missile batteries into Belarus.

To bolster the navy place of the Kyiv authorities towards Russia’s overwhelming benefit in air, sea, artillery, missiles and manpower, the U.S. and NATO nations have been transporting defensive weaponry to Ukraine. These embrace small-arms ammunition, mortar and artillery shells, antitank guided missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, grenade launchers, explosive-ordnance disposal fits and Mossberg 500 pump-action shotguns, in accordance with U.S. and Ukrainian officers. The shipments haven’t included superior antiship missiles or subtle air-defense techniques.

Russia has denied it intends to invade its neighbor. However Moscow says NATO’s enlargement into Japanese Europe for the reason that finish of the Chilly Struggle poses a risk to its safety and has demanded the alliance swear off ever including Ukraine and pull again troops from its jap flank.

Whereas rejecting Moscow’s calls for concerning the way forward for NATO’s safety posture, the U.S. and NATO have provided Moscow a menu of reciprocal proposals that would supply for inspections of U.S. missile protection websites in Poland and Romania and curbs on navy workouts. On the similar time, the U.S. and Europe have threatened crippling sanctions aimed toward Russian banks and business and the nation’s economic system within the occasion of an incursion.

Weeks of talks in quite a lot of codecs have yielded no seen progress in de-escalating the scenario. In Berlin on Thursday, Russian and Ukrainian officers failed to achieve an settlement over methods to resolve the monthslong disaster, in talks that additionally concerned France and Germany.

Moscow desires “not simply excuses, however a concrete response from the West to our proposals, which presuppose the inadmissibility of strengthening somebody’s safety on the expense of another person’s safety,” Russian Overseas Minister

Sergei Lavrov

mentioned, referring to the risk Russia says NATO poses in Japanese Europe. “I can not say that we now have any factors of contact right here.”

Ukrainian officers, in the meantime, have urged calm and have performed down the specter of a Russian invasion, amid considerations that panicked worry of an invasion would wreck Ukrainian markets and the broader economic system.

Mr. Sullivan mentioned Individuals ought to depart whereas business transportation providers had been nonetheless out there and mentioned the administration didn’t plan to deploy U.S. troops to help with evacuations throughout the nation.

“The president won’t be placing the lives of our women and men in uniform in danger by sending them right into a warfare zone to rescue individuals who may have left now however selected to not,” he mentioned.

In an interview with NBC Information on Thursday, Mr. Biden mentioned U.S. residents “ought to depart now.”

“We’re coping with one of many largest armies on the planet,” he mentioned. It’s a really totally different scenario and issues may go loopy shortly.”

—Nancy A. Youssef, Vivian Salama, Warren P. Strobel and Laurence Norman contributed to this text.

Write to Gordon Lubold at [email protected] and Sabrina Siddiqui at [email protected]