“The correct factor to do is to proceed to play.” – Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner

Welcome to sports activities, December 2021.

I will take it.

Eighteen months in the past, sports activities was me betting my daughter which Amazon package deal would arrive subsequent.

Final evening, I watched my Washington Soccer Crew lose a nationally-televised recreation with important playoff implications… at 4 p.m. on a Tuesday. We began a apply squad QB. He wasn’t even from our apply squad.

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I knew QB4 would play gallantly. However I knew QB4 would finally get sacked throughout a late-fourth quarter, fourth-down, doom-sealing sequence. And I knew that sack would guarantee WFT would fail to cowl by half some extent.

(At 3:58 p.m. PST, each synapse in my previously gambling-addled thoughts was screaming, “The Present Mrs. Cregan has had a platinum 12 months! Not a white gold 12 months… a platinum 12 months! You possibly can improve what’s in that little blue field hidden inside your amp with the Eagles and the over! Go residence, Cregan… your bookie misses you!”)

Lastly, I knew that I might have to face up to two hours of my least favourite TV present ever: high-definition cutaways of joyful, smiling residents of Chester, toasting my vacation misfortune whereas hopefully logging onto Lyft.

I’LL TAKE IT. AND LOVE IT.

I’m all in, Commissioner Silver. Boosted and breakfast-tea bullish for Monday, January 3, 2022, roughly 9 p.m. PST.

What’s that? What’s occurring round 9 p.m. in Pasadena on 1/3/22?

Solely the true starting of the Fantasy basketball common season.

It will be the top of the fantasy soccer playoffs. (Perhaps I will be counting some cash then. I picked up Rashaad Penny and Amon-Ra St. Brown weeks in the past! Don’t fret, the Present Mrs. Cregan’s birthday is on January twenty fourth.)

That’s the second when many bifurcated fantasy managers will take a protracted second take a look at their hoops squads and resolve to start out tinkering.

Take it from somebody Tom Brady’s age, however with manner higher hair: 1/3/22 will begin the very important stretch of your fantasy basketball marketing campaign. Have a plan for making the most of the one factor we might be certain of: chaos.

Do you shoot for the moon and look to the skies for upside? Do you batten down the hatches and scan the seas for consistency?

Upside vs. Consistency. That’s the 1/3/22 query.

It comes right down to your funding strategy. Do you prefer to win by reaching for gargantuan highs? Or do you keep a step forward by rocking regular?

For a case examine, I refer you to the Rookie class. As in “each rookie class since they added the 3-point line.”

Keep in mind the 2020-21 season? At about the identical juncture? LaMelo Ball was a mortal lock for fantasy (and real-life) Rookie of the Yr.

By 3/1/21 (bear in mind, the season began on Christmas) Ball had successfully lapped his freshman competitors.

He’d performed in 34 video games, second-best for all rookies, simply behind Anthony Edwards’ 35 video games. Ball was averaging a well-diversified 15.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 6.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG, and a couple of.0 3PG. He was locked in.

Then Ball fractured his wrist and missed six weeks. He ended up solely enjoying 51 video games for the season. However Ball nonetheless gained Rookie of the Yr… in actuality.

However in fantasy, Ball barely positioned second in my ROY race. I ranked Ball simply forward of Tyrese Haliburton, whose superior effectivity from the sector (47.2 FG%) and line (85.7 FT%) pushed him right into a digital tie for second.

And BTW, did I ever commerce Ball earlier than he broke his wrist?

Heck, sure. As a result of on 3/1/21, I believed that 30-game-in LaMelo Ball was locked in. Ball was having an incredible season. However given the circumstances, I did not consider Ball had one other rookie gear. His subsequent leap would arrive round Halloween.

And whereas I do not consider within the Rookie Wall… I ardently consider in Rookie Volatility. Which made Ball a sell-high.

Who was the fantasy 20-21 ROY? Straightforward: Anthony Edwards. Edwards was the runaway fantasy ROY — in Factors and Roto — due to his 72 video games performed. And his consistency.

Fantasy respects the mixture. So Edwards’ 72 video games of 19.3 PPG, 2.4 3PG, and never a lot else beat 51 video games of Ball’s multi-categorical goodness.

The 2020-21 rookie class was a pleasing shock. This 2021-22 class is hitting 2003-04 ranges of hype.

The freshman class of 2003-04? A case examine in rookie Upside vs. Consistency. 2003-04 is canon. It is the pantheon class. We laud it for producing LeBron, Carmelo, Wade and Bosh. However nobody remembers who posted the third-best rookie season of that class: Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich lapped Wade and Bosh. He gave Carmelo a run for runner-up fantasy ROY. Hinrich was sturdy. He performed 16 extra video games than Wade. However Hinrich additionally possessed probably the most underrated of all rookie dynamics: consistency. Hinrich locked in early, and sensing when a rookie is locked in is a helpful fantasy attribute.

If we are able to assess a rookie a 3rd of the best way into the season and see he is been hitting the identical stage of quantity and percentages since November? We will decide whether or not it is time to promote excessive.

Hinrich locked in throughout November 2003. His November averages of 11.9 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 1.8 3PG just about matched his last averages of 12.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 1.9 3PG.

Hinrich solely shot 38.6% from the sector that season. However he hit 39.0% of his 3s. Hinrich’s 3-point share in November, 2003: 40.0%. December, 2003: 37.0%.

Low variance. Locked in.

Carmelo was just a little higher that season. LeBron was manner higher. However the hype issue for each gamers was unreal. In order that they demanded a excessive funding of draft capital or in-season commerce worth.

Hinrich was endgame. A waiver wire play. Hinrich simply offered one of the best rookie ROI, which made him my 2003-04 ROY.

What it is advisable to do is take a look at the category of 2021-22 and assess: is that this participant locked in? And if he’s, does he have sufficient hype to warrant promoting excessive? And what in the event you’ve bought just a little Riverboat Ron in you? What in the event you shun consistency within the identify of upside?

Then determine who you suppose is furthest away from locking it in. Who is perhaps hiding the next gear. Who is perhaps at a low level. Then see if you should buy low.

Consistency does not all the time win out. Some seasons, a hyped rookie simply will get higher and higher and he runs away with ROY. There’ll all the time be occasional rookie slumps… what I name “Rookie Divots.” These Divots are simply buy-low home windows.

My vote for the fantasy GOAT rookie class: 2018-19. Trae Younger, Luka Doncic, Deandre Ayton, Collin Sexton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mo Bamba, Mitchell Robinson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., and the Bridges brothers.

The category of 2018-19 provided two heavily-hyped rookies that generated high-upside ROI: Younger and Doncic. And Doncic cranked out some heavy Rookie Divots.

12/3/18 was the low level. The largest Divot. Doncic shot 2-of-13 on 11/30/18, then missed his subsequent recreation with a hip pressure.

12/3/18 was one of the best day to purchase low on Luka Doncic. The second-best day? 12/10/18. Doncic went 2-of-11 in 25 minutes towards the Magic. That evening, Doncic’s anemic 7 factors meant he’d didn’t put up double-digits in two out of three video games.

When you purchased low on Doncic then? You bought again an enormous bag of upside.

So what about this class? Listed below are my prime 3 rookies.

Scottie Barnes, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors

VERDICT: Locked in.

Barnes’ past-5 averages reads like an end-of-season snapshot: 38 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 0.6 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 1.2 3PG, 51.5 FG%, 73.7 FT%. What are the most important tells that Barnes is at peak manufacturing?

The ramped up 3-point manufacturing (he is up a half a 3 over his season common.) And the 38.0 minutes per recreation.

Barnes is enjoying effectively. He is constant. He is nurtured his 3-point shot. His Utilization is excessive. And he cannot play greater than 38 minutes an evening.

Locked. In. The query is: is the hype excessive sufficient to warrant promoting excessive? The one approach to discover out is to discipline some presents.

Cade Cunningham, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons

VERDICT: Not Locked In.

When it comes to per-game rookie manufacturing, Cunningham is already in a useless warmth with Barnes. And that is after an injury-dented gradual begin.

Cunningham is as inconsistent as they arrive. His 38.3 FG% depicts capturing nights that current as glorified temper swings. When his 3 is falling? Cunningham appears just like the surefire ROY. When it is not, he appears like a bust.

Given the accidents and late begin, Cunningham oozes “I’ve one other gear.” His game-to-game capturing variance has to iron out. Has to. And in my view, Cunningham’s hype issue is down on account of his late debut. Supporting stat: he is nonetheless unrostered in about 10% of ESPN leagues.

Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers

VERDICT: Not Even Shut To Locked In, However He is Left A Path of Breadcrumbs

In little 5-game bursts, Mobley’s given us a peek at his peak. Exhibit A: Mobley’s line from 11/5 to 11/13: 19.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.0 BPG, 58.2 FG%, 42.9 3PT%, 82.4 FT%.

That, expensive readers, is a stretch Tim Duncan.

I am sorry. I am unable to assist it. Because the first week of November, at any time when I see Mobley play, the phrase “Stretch Duncan” flashes in my thoughts with a Burning-Man depth.

I am suffused in Mobley hype. I am unable to escape it. I do not need to. When you’re in one of many leagues I roster Mobley and studying this? I’ve gotten your presents. Rejected them on sight.

I am not buying and selling Evan Mobley. No manner, no how. Evan Mobley and I are on this for the period.

As a result of Evan Mobley is gonna have a platinum 12 months.

THE END

(P.S. That is me leveraging my platform to promote excessive. Make me a proposal!)