In just a few days, the high profile fall film festivals will all have gotten started. Over at the Telluride Film Festival, the Toronto Film Festival, and the Venice Film Festival, movies will start to become major Oscar contenders. In fact, as you’re reading this, First Man will probably have just screened at Venice. Soon after, A Star is Born will screen. By the weekend, we’ll know more about some huge potential players. It’s truly an exciting time. As such, of course an update to my predictions is in order. The summer is just about up, so it’s time to get as serious as we can about this. Before you know it, the Academy Awards will be upon us. You laugh, but just wait…
What you’ll see here are some slight changes across the board. Plus, I’ve expanded the lists in each category. So, it’s more than just the predicted five everywhere, including that horrible new category. Mainly, you’ll see that A Star is Born has, for the moment at least, taken over from First Man as the one to beat in Best Picture. One other thing to note is, while I haven’t added it in yet, I have it on good authority that Ad Astra will in fact be a 2018 release, so it’s in play this year. More on that soon, but just keep it in the back of your mind for now.
Here now are some updated Academy Award picks, with the fall film festival season about to get underway:
BEST PICTURE
1. A Star is Born
2. First Man
3. BlackKklansman
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite
6. The Front Runner
7. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Black Panther
10. On the Basis of Sex
Next in line: 11. Mary Queen of Scots 12. Boy Erased 13. The Old Man and the Gun 14. Widows 15. Beautiful Boy 16. White Boy Rick 17. Peterloo 18. Bohemian Rhapsody 19. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 20. At Eternity’s Gate 21. The Sisters Brothers 22. Roma 23. Green Book 24. Wildlife 25. Welcome to Marwen 26. Disobedience 27. Eighth Grade 28. Sorry to Bother You 29. Life Itself 30. Mary Poppins Returns
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
2. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Damien Chazelle – First Man
4. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
5. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Next in line: 6. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 7. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Adam McKay – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic 9. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner 10. Josie Rourke – Mary Queen of Scots
BEST ACTOR
1. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun
4. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
5. Christian Bale – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
Next in line: 6. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate 7. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody 7. 8. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (or Ben is Back) 9. Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy (or Welcome to Marwen) 10. John David Washington – BlackKklansman
BEST ACTRESS
1. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
2. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star is Born
3. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots
4. Glenn Close – The Wife
5. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Next in line: 6. Olivia Colman – The Favourite 7. Viola Davis – Widows 8. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer 9. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 10. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – All About Nina
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
2. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Could Go Lead)
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Sam Rockwell – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
5. Bruce Dern – White Boy Rick
Next in line: 6. Robert Forster – What They Had 7. Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate 8. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 9. Kyle Chandler – First Man 10. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Claire Foy – First Man
2. Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
3. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
4. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
Next in line: 6. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Sissy Spacek – The Old Man and the Gun (Could Go Lead) 8. Zoe Kazan – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Emma Stone – The Favourite 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
2. The Favourite
3. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
4. Peterloo
5. Sorry to Bother You
Next in line: 6. Eighth Grade 7. On the Basis of Sex 8. Roma 9. White Boy Rick 10. Hearts Beat Loud
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. BlackKklansman
2. The Front Runner
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star is Born
5. First Man
Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. Mary Queen of Scots 8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 9. Beautiful Boy 10. Wildlife
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. The Grinch
Next in line: 6. Early Man 7. Smallfoot 8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 9. Peter Rabbit 10. Sherlock Gnomes
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 8. Mary Queen of Scots 9. Peterloo 10. Colette
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Favourite
5. First Man
Next in line: 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 7. Peterloo 8. Black Panther 9. Cold War 10. Annihilation
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. The Favourite
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Next in line: 6. Colette 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. Peterloo 9. First Man 10. A Wrinkle in Time
BEST FILM EDITING
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlackKklansman
5. A Star is Born
Next in line: 6. The Favourite 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Roma 9. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic 10. The Front Runner
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns
Next in line: 4. A Star is Born 5. Mary Queen of Scots 6. A Wrinkle in Time 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. Peterloo
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther
Next in line: 6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 8. Ant-Man and the Wasp 9. Incredibles 2 10. Aquaman
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther
Next in line: 6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 8. Ant-Man and the Wasp 9. Incredibles 2 10. Aquaman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Annihilation
2. Black Panther
3. Ready Player One
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Next in line: 6. First Man 7. Ant-Man and the Wasp 8. Aquaman 9. A Wrinkle in Time 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Sisters Brothers
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Next in line: 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 7. Black Panther 8. Incredibles 2 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Suspiria
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. A Star is Born
2. Hearts Beat Loud
3. Boy Erased
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Next in line: 6. A Star is Born 7. Hearts Beat Loud 8. Black Panther 9. Smallfoot 10. BlackKklansman
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Fahrenheit 11/9
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. The Final Year
Next in line: 6. Whitney 7. The King 8. The Bleeding Edge 9. Minding the Gap 10. Generation Wealth
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Everybody Knows
4. Capernaum
5. Shoplifters
Next in line: 6. Burning 7. Happy as Lazzaro 8. Sunset 9. The Angel 10. Birds of Passage
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
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And, of course, the newest category…
BEST POPULAR FILM
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
4. A Quiet Place
5. Crazy Rich Asians
Next in line: 6. Incredibles 2 7. Mary Poppins Returns 8. Ant-Man and the Wasp 9. Deadpool 2 10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Stay tuned for another update next month!
