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Trading Analysis Week 21

Trading Analysis Week 21 shows the Bitcoin price has been trending higher in the latter part of this week. This is after a brief pull-back earlier in the week to the sub ZAR 6,740 range. The longer term bullish Trend has returned. The speculative sentiment supports the longer-term trend. We could see a break through resistance at ZAR 7840, but when? That’s the million dollar question.

Despite the upward trend these last few days, charts would indicate that some correction is due in the short term. So, it is perhaps not the right time to go long, even if the upward trend does continue a little more, these coming days. This is the very short term price chart analysis. Again, on short-term analysis, this correction could return to a complete reversal back to the sub ZAR 6,740 range.

Trading Analysis Week 21 Bullish or Bearish

The China (Yuan) exchanges have moved to the upside quickly. They are currently trading at the lower end of resistance ceiling; CNY 3,000. If CNY/BTC moves past resistance then we can expect the price to continue even higher. This advance past resistance has tried and failed many times recently. This in itself is a short-term bearish indicator.

It is certainly possible that price could finally, and conclusively, break this CNY resistance. If so, we can expect it to continue much higher. However, we would not necessarily bet on it, in short term trading.

Supporting evidence we use is the consistent failure to make even just one new high, the fact reward halving is still not on the short-term horizon (2 months away), and uncertain market sentiment in relation to competitor altcoins, like Ethereum and their position in the market.

The downward turn the last few days of this week did prove limited. The market now is at a pivotal point. It must decide to continue on the long-term bull trend, or move again to short term decline.

A move downward and the price would have to find resistance at the ZAR 6,930 level. This would be indicative of a deeper correction. Then look for a price consolidating below the ZAR 6,820 level. If that happens, the down trend is likely to continue.

The price may be inching higher. But until it crosses ZAR 7,370 conclusively, we are not adjusting our short term sideways / bearish predictions.

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