| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Name | Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy |
| Definition | The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a cognitive bias where an individual or group selectively focuses on specific data, events, or patterns after they have occurred and draws unwarranted conclusions or perceives significance where none exists. |
| Key Elements | 1. Cherry-Picking Data: The fallacy involves deliberately selecting data that supports a preconceived belief while ignoring other relevant information. 2. Ignoring Random Chance: It dismisses the role of chance or randomness, assuming observed patterns or outcomes were intentional. 3. Drawing False Patterns or Conclusions: Individuals incorrectly infer cause-and-effect relationships or significant patterns. 4. Neglecting Context: This includes ignoring broader context and other influencing factors. 5. Confirmation Bias: People tend to seek and favor information aligning with their existing beliefs. 6. Oversimplification: It often involves attributing complex phenomena to a single factor. 7. Lack of Statistical Rigor: The fallacy often lacks rigorous statistical analysis or empirical evidence. |
| Common Application | The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy can manifest in various areas, including politics, religion, sports, science, personal beliefs, and decision-making. |
| Example | A person believes in the efficacy of a particular homeopathic remedy based on selective testimonials, ignoring cases where it had no effect. This person may erroneously conclude that the remedy is universally effective. |
| Importance | Recognizing the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is vital for critical thinking, decision-making, and ensuring that beliefs and arguments are grounded in sound reasoning and evidence. |
| Case Study | Implication | Analysis | Example |
|---|
| Climate Change Skeptic | Cherry-picking data disregards climate change consensus. | The skeptic selects short-term temperature data, ignoring long-term global trends and the scientific consensus on climate change. | A person claims global warming is a hoax based on a short-term temperature decline. |
| Lunar Beverage Sales | Falsely attributing causality to lunar phases. | The marketing manager concludes that moon phases influence sales without considering other influencing factors. | A marketing manager believes that beverage sales are higher during full moons. |
| Superstitious Student | Misplaced confidence in ineffective rituals. | The student relies on superstitious rituals (wearing a hat, sitting in a specific chair) for academic success, ignoring the role of study habits and effort. | A student believes that a lucky routine of wearing a hat and sitting in a specific chair boosts their grades. |
| Political Polling | Misinterpreting weather as a significant factor. | An analyst attributes a candidate’s popularity solely to sunny weather, ignoring other factors like campaign strategy and political issues. | An analyst claims a candidate’s success is due to sunny weather during rallies. |
| Stock Market Predictor | Overestimating predictive power of historical patterns. | An investor assumes that past stock market patterns will predict future performance without considering other market variables. | An investor relies on historical patterns to predict stock market performance without considering other factors. |
Connected Thinking Frameworks
Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.
Critical Thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.
Biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.
Second-Order Thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.
Lateral Thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.
Bounded Rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.
Occam’s Razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.
Lindy Effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.
Antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).
Ergodicity
Ergodicity is one of the most important concepts in statistics. Ergodicity is a mathematical concept suggesting that a point of a moving system will eventually visit all parts of the space the system moves in. On the opposite side, non-ergodic means that a system doesn’t visit all the possible parts, as there are absorbing barriers
Systems Thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.
Vertical Thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.
Metaphorical Thinking
Metaphorical thinking describes a mental process in which comparisons are made between qualities of objects usually considered to be separate classifications. Metaphorical thinking is a mental process connecting two different universes of meaning and is the result of the mind looking for similarities.
Maslow’s Hammer
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).
Peter Principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.
Straw Man Fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.
Google Effect
The Google effect is a tendency for individuals to forget information that is readily available through search engines. During the Google effect – sometimes called digital amnesia – individuals have an excessive reliance on digital information as a form of memory recall.
Streisand Effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.
Compromise Effect
