A Barbell strategy consists of making sure that 90% of your capital is safe, and use the remaining 10%, or on risky investments. Applied to business strategy, this means having a binary approach. On the one hand, extremely conservative. On the other, extremely aggressive, thus creating a potent mix.

Barbell strategy in a nutshell

A Barbell strategy, a la Taleb consists of making sure that 90% of your capital is safe, by investing it in Risk-Free assets, which cover from inflation. On the other hand use 10%, or the remaining capital for very risky investments.

Few people can coin a new word, and one of those is the options trader, writer, and philosopher Nicholas Nassim Taleb. He introduces the concept of Black Swans and how to deal with that in his three books series called “Incerto.”

Before men discovered the existence of Black Swans in Australia, empirical evidence showed that they did not exist.

The problem with empirical evidence is that it can only be falsified rather than prove to be right or wrong ultimately. In other words, there will be not a final theory in science, or in socio-economical life, that will be right forever.

Instead, a method that works better compared to the previous ones. Until a new, evolved theory, therefore falsify a previous one. It does not mean that the former assumption was wrong, but rather not as complete as the new theory.

What does this introduction have to do with investing? The investing world is plenty of gurus, which affirm to be able to read the markets.

The problem is that this is not possible, not because they are not knowledgeable enough but somewhat because they are too indoctrinated with their theories and, therefore, they fall into the narrative fallacy.

The narrative fallacy is a bias that we all carry, but that the so-called “experts” seem to carry the most.

In other words, we tend to give an explanation and create cause-effect relationships between events, which are not related at all. In short, with words we can create stories, those stories fit a narrative, which is deviant from reality.

Also, while experts in the domain of physical things, maybe really able to have a better understanding of that domain, this is not the case for social areas.

As Taleb puts it,

“if you put 1000 people in line and you take the person who weighs the most in the world, that person will represent thirty basis points of the total (0.30% of the total);”

instead, if you take 1000 people and you want to measure how the wealthiest person in the world will affect the total, you will be astonished to see that person representing 99.9% of the total.

Mediocristan vs. Extremistan

In other words, Taleb classifies our world in two domains, a first domain, called Mediocristan, like the weight example. And a second domain, called Extremistan, like the wealth example.

In the weight example (mediocristan), one single rare event minimally impacts the total. In the wealth example (extremistan), instead, one single rare event will make the total. From here, we go back to our idea of black swans.

Socio-economics is classifiable as an extremistan domain, where one rare event can make the total. Therefore, the problem here is to understand the difference between rare events, or “Black Swans” which can be classified in “Positive Black Swans” and “Negative Black Swans.”

In other words, we want to avoid negative black swans, while we want to completely expose ourselves to positive black swans. But how does this concept apply to finance and investments?

To take advantage of positive swans while avoiding negative ones, you have to take an opposite approach in the same domain. In short, you want to cover yourself from blowups while also making yourself exposed to unlimited upsides.

The barbell strategy

This strategy translates into the Barbell strategy, elaborated by Taleb. This strategy mainly consists of making sure that 90% of your capital is safe, by investing it in Risk-Free assets, which cover from inflation. On the other hand use 10% of the remaining capital for very risky investments.

Risky investments such as options, or rights but not obligations to either buy or sell a stock in the future. The cool thing about options is the fact that you know the downside beforehand (the cost of the option), although, you don’t know the upside (as Taleb puts it “The sky is the limit”).

While this strategy can be used in investing, it can also be used in other domains of life. The interesting theory coming from Taleb’s book is intriguing since it can be expanded to the point of making yourself “antifragile” to life.

This new word coined by Taleb differs from robustness. Indeed, while robust things are resistant, “antifragile” things, gain from disorder. In an uncertain, extremistan world, becoming antifragile can be the answer and solution to life’s meanest problems.

The Four-Week MBA is an online community. The article above is not meant as an investment advice, but rather as an educational article. For investment advice consulting an investment professional. 

The resources you need to get started with your business model: 

• What Is a Business Model? 30 Successful Types of Business Models You Need to Know
• What Is a Business Model Canvas? Business Model Canvas Explained
• Blitzscaling Business Model Innovation Canvas In A Nutshell
• What Is a Value Proposition? Value Proposition Canvas Explained
• What Is a Lean Startup Canvas? Lean Startup Canvas Explained
• How to Write a One-Page Business Plan
• The Rise of the Subscription Economy
• How to Build a Great Business Plan According to Peter Thiel
• What Is The Most Profitable Business Model?
• The Era Of Paywalls: How To Build A Subscription Business For Your Media Outlet
• How To Create A Business Model
• What Is Business Model Innovation And Why It Matters
• What Is Blitzscaling And Why It Matters
• Snapshot: One Year Of “Business Model” Searches On Google In Review
• Business Model Vs Business Plan: When And How To Use Them
• The Five Key Factors That Lead To Successful Tech Startups
• Top 12 Business Ideas with Low Investment and High Profit
• Business Model Tools for Small Businesses and Startups

• How To Use A Freemium Business Model To Scale Up Your Business

Popular case studies from the blog:

• The Power of Google Business Model in a Nutshell
• How Does Google Make Money? It’s Not Just Advertising!
• How Does DuckDuckGo Make Money? DuckDuckGo Business Model Explained
• How Amazon Makes Money: Amazon Business Model in a Nutshell
• How Does Netflix Make Money? Netflix Business Model Explained
• How Does Spotify Make Money? Spotify Business Model In A Nutshell
• The Trillion Dollar Company: Apple Business Model In A Nutshell
• DuckDuckGo: The [Former] Solopreneur That Is Beating Google at Its Game

The post What Is a Barbell Strategy? Barbell Strategy Applied To Business appeared first on FourWeekMBA.