In the Eighteenth Century, sailors were keenly aware of the perils of hurricanes in the Caribbean and they knew well that these threats were much more likely to happen in late summer.  In current times, sailors have tremendous technology at their disposal to predict, communicate and avoid these monstrous storms, but the technology optics are limited to short horizons of a few days or less.  

The Long Range prediction of the path and severity of these storms is based upon extensive and well thought out models.  However, the number of variables involved make this modeling task extremely difficult and there is inadequate precision in long range forecasts.  

So, even today, if you are traveling by sail alone and you are a few days away from landfall, you may not be much better off than our Eighteenth century predecessors.