“The worst thing is the unknown, so you can’t plan anything,” says Georgin Bonifazi, farmer in the Graubünden mountain village of Brienz/Brinzauls. The future of his village is in the balance since landslides have accelerated in recent years, at more than a meter a year. Even relocating the village is a possibility.

The municipality of Albula/Alvra, to which Brienz belongs, has already carried out a study on this. After that, 72 permanent residents and around 50 guests would have to move away – in extreme cases, around 300 apartments would be affected. A resettlement campaign on a scale that has never been seen in Switzerland before.

Case study resettlement in Weggis

The “Horlaui” area in the Lucerne municipality of Weggis provides object lessons. In 2014, the largest preventive resettlement campaign to date took place there due to environmental hazards.

Five houses were evacuated and demolished. The ten residents had to look for a new place to live. A traumatic experience for those affected. At the time, Georg Wieser, who grew up in Horlaui, was very concerned about his father, who had to leave the house he had built himself after around 50 years: “It hit him hard and I feared that he might do something to himself.”

Weggis lies at the foot of the Rigi and has repeatedly been affected by rock falls and mudslides in the past. But the eviction of the five houses set a precedent. When surveys showed that the rocks could fall at any time and fatally injure the people in the houses, the evacuation became urgent.

“As a church, we were forced to act immediately and couldn’t wait any longer,” says Baptist Lottenbach, who still remembers the difficult discussions he had to have with those affected as a church leader.

Rescue of Brienz: “Not a question of money”?

But for the village of Brienz, the municipality, canton and federal government are doing everything they can to ensure that there is no resettlement. Around 28 million francs have so far been used for an exploratory tunnel, monitoring systems and geological investigations.

It’s not a question of money.

In December 2022, the Grand Council of the Canton of Graubünden approved a further 40 million to build a drainage tunnel to slow down the slide. The decision was unanimous 110-0. The Graubünden building director at the time, Mario Cavigelli, previously said that everything humanly possible had to be tried to save the village. “It’s not a question of money,” he said.

But is that so? Are the funds unlimited to protect settlements like Brienz from natural hazards?

Not from the perspective of the federal government, which co-finances Protective measures against natural hazards with up to 45 percent. In his Policies to protect against mass movement hazards it says: “The costs of the protective measures are to be compared with the expected damage potential.” According to the guidelines, there is no federal money for “uneconomical or inappropriate protection projects”.

Millions invested to protect millions more

There is also an example of this in Weggis am Rigi. In the “Horlaui” area, five houses were cleared and demolished. Protective measures against the impending rockfall were examined here, but rejected due to the cramped spatial conditions and high costs.

You only get subsidies from the federal government and the canton if the investments pay off.

Only a few hundred meters away, in the Laugneri area, ten million Swiss francs were spent on protective structures, with the federal government and the canton each providing a third of the funding. Studies have shown that the rescue was not only technically feasible, but also made economic sense. Lottenbach municipal council: “You only get subsidies from the federal government and the canton if the investments pay off.”

The properties under the built protective dams were significantly more valuable than the protective structures. In addition, it was calculated that the measures would achieve a protective effect of 96 percent. Both the protective effect and the risk calculation are two important factors that are used for the realization of protective structures.

Potential damage from the Brienz landslide: CHF 177 million

What does this mean for Brienz? Corresponding calculations are also made here: According to a risk analysis, the direct damage potential from the landslide in the village is CHF 177 million. This includes, for example, the value of all buildings (76.8 million), roads (22.2 million), usable space (19.0 million) or water and sewage pipes (8.7 million).

But what is the probability of the damage actually occurring? And how effective are the protective measures? The answer in the Brienz case is particularly difficult. Geologist Hugo Raetzo, who is in charge of the Brienz dossier at the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), says: “Calculating in areas of slide is a major challenge, much more complex than with water or avalanche processes.”

It is also difficult to assess the long-term protective effect of measures such as the drainage tunnel that has now been decided, even if the first measurement results indicate that the landslide has calmed down.

The worst of all scenarios

In addition, there is also a risk of a landslide. Because not only the village itself, but also large hillside areas above Brienz are unstable and in motion. If these masses fall down, it would not only affect Brienz, but other areas of the municipality of Albula/Alvra. It’s the worst of all scenarios.

We assume that there would be a few days or weeks lead time for an evacuation.

There is currently no acute danger, says Christian Wilhelm, Head of Natural Hazards and Protective Structures in the Canton of Graubünden: “We assume that this will be announced and that there will be a few days or weeks’ lead time for an evacuation.”

However, when calculating whether the costs for protective measures are worthwhile, these factors present an additional challenge. There are no statistics, such as with avalanches, which periodically occur again and again. The procedure that is otherwise usual in Switzerland was therefore adapted for Brienz, says Wilhelm. The latest findings from the geological reports are constantly included.

Financing currently in the green

According to the last evaluation from the summer of 2022, things are looking good for the people of Brienz. With a total of CHF 68 million currently planned for protective measures, you are still in the green. According to Christian Wilhelm, a combined risk analysis for the “mountain” and “village” areas should be available by summer 2023.

In the case of Brienz, the socio-political aspect is very important.

But you can’t just look at the Brienz case mathematically, says Bafu geologist Hugo Raetzo. It is also about a historic village, with a long history and a population connected to the homeland. Requests for contributions would also be assessed according to ecological and socio-political criteria. “And in the case of Brienz, this socio-political aspect is very important,” says Raetzo.

From this point of view it does not seem to be a question of money at the moment to save the Graubünden mountain village. The question remains open as to whether nature will play along and let the sliding masses calm down through the tunnels.