Fear of a nuclear strike: Australians and New Zealanders have the best chances of survival

In recent years there has been much speculation about a possible apocalypse that could mean the end of human civilization. The doomsday clock, a symbol of the threat to humanity, was set to just 90 seconds before midnight in January. Spurred on by the pandemic, many of the super-rich have been looking for “alternative destinations” for the possible end of the world in recent years. New Zealand in particular has been at the top of the list of these “doomsday preppers” for years.

A new study published in the journal “Risk Analysis‘ but now came to the conclusion that not New Zealand but Australia is the country with the best chance of survival in the event of an apocalyptic scenario such as a nuclear war, an asteroid impact or the eruption of a supervolcano. All disasters would reduce sunlight.

Neighbor New Zealand follows in second place. Iceland, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu also stand a good chance of helping restart a collapsed human civilization.

Island states are better off

In the study, the authors compared 38 island states. Researchers have long suspected that islands would be better off in the event of an apocalypse. At a British study from Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) in 2021, New Zealand, the Australian island of Tasmania, Ireland, Iceland and Great Britain also did particularly well.

On the one hand, it is easier for island states to monitor their borders and thus successfully limit migration. The regions named in the British study were also chosen because they currently have low temperature and precipitation variability. This means that conditions are likely to remain relatively stable there, despite the effects of climate change. In addition, all destinations are large enough to be self-sufficient in terms of energy and agriculture.

Australia’s ‘giant food buffer’

The latter also played a major role in the current study. Since this examined, among other things, the danger of a nuclear strike, Australia and New Zealand did particularly well. Both nations are not only agricultural producers, they are also remote from the likely sites of nuclear strikes that would likely take place in the northern hemisphere. Australia fared even better than New Zealand because “Australia’s food buffer is gigantic,” as the study states. The country has the “potential to feed many tens of millions more people.”

Other advantages that speak for Australia are the relatively good infrastructure, the large energy surplus and the high defense budget. However, Australia itself could also be a target of a nuclear strike, as it has relatively close military ties to Britain and the United States and has always stood by the United States in wars in the recent past. In addition, Pine Gap is an Australian-US espionage center in the country that could be a potential target.

Nuclear war is the “most likely” end-time scenario

In this regard, New Zealand fared better as the country has a much more neutral status than Australia. The country could absorb an extreme temperature drop from a period of darkness because almost every part of the country is relatively close to the sea. Other countries, on the other hand, could experience a much greater drop in their food production if a nuclear winter sets in or if materials such as soot, sulfur dioxide or dust are thrown into the stratosphere and spread globally.

In principle, the researchers assume that “even in the worst scenario there would probably be survivors all over the world”. But Australia or New Zealand are nations that could avoid a total collapse that would catapult countries back to the pre-industrial era.

While the risk of an asteroid or comet impact is “very low,” according to the researchers, a large volcanic eruption is more likely. However, the scientists consider it most likely that a nuclear war would trigger an end-of-times scenario.