Huge numbers of people are returning to Afghanistan – more than two million since 2015 – while the country is still highly fragile, with ongoing fighting and internal displacement in many areas and high levels of poverty. Oxfam’s field research in Herat, Kabul, Kunduz and Nangarhar finds that for as long as these conditions do not improve, a safe and dignified return cannot be guaranteed, and forced returns remain irresponsible. With more people returning on a daily basis, tensions are likely to grow and pressure on scarce resources will increase, exacerbating inequalities in this unstable and fragile country. Sending Afghans back to volatile areas will likely result only in more displacement and fragility.

SUMMARY

In the past few years, Afghanistan has witnessed unprecedented numbers of Returnees, mainly from Iran and Pakistan and to a lesser extent from Europe. Since the beginning of 2015, more than two million Afghans have returned, many involuntarily as a result of changing domestic policies in the countries to which they fled or migrated.

Oxfam in Afghanistan’s field research in Herat, Kabul, Kunduz and Nangarhar finds that, for as long as current conditions do not improve in the country, forced returns remain dangerous, as safety and dignity cannot be guaranteed. People who are unable to return to areas in which they own land – or can be supported by their family or community – often end up in situations of internal displacement, increasing the country’s fragility. The capacity to absorb returnees and meet humanitarian needs is limited. This fragile situation will remain unchanged unless the root causes of Conflict are addressed in a sustainable way.

In the meantime, more Afghans are returning every day to a situation of protracted conflict that perpetuates poverty and instability. After 2016 was one of the deadliest years for civilian casualties, the first six months of 2017 saw a 23% increase in women casualties and a 9% increase in child deaths. As long as these fragile conditions persist, Afghans should not be forced to return to their country.

The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan is still causing displacement on a daily basis: by 2016, the total number of internally displaced people (IDPs) was approximately 1,553,000; between 1 January and 3 December 2017, an estimated additional 372,977 Afghans fled their homes. The conflict in Afghanistan therefore continues to be much more a driver of displacement and migration than vice versa.

There is very limited government capacity to address the proper reception and reintegration of returnees, and there is no clear government policy to cope with the corresponding humanitarian needs. This is especially problematic for women and children, who constitute the largest part of returnees.

Most attention has so far been devoted to the humanitarian and protection needs of returnees and the internally displaced, which represent a key challenge for the Afghan government and the international community. However, if the conflict dynamics of return are neglected, an already dire situation may become much worse. It is important to better understand how the return of Afghans is linked to possible causes of disputes and friction, as it represents an additional layer of potential conflict and fragility that could further destabilize a highly insecure and polarized Afghanistan.

This research shows that two factors are crucial to determining the scope of potential conflict: 1) absorption capacity at local level, which depends to a certain extent on support from extended family members or on assistance from the government or international agencies; and 2) the (social) adaptation or (re)integration capacity of returnees, whether in their communities of origin or in new areas where they wish to settle.

The majority of those forced to return from Iran and Pakistan were unregistered refugees, which means they did not receive official refugee status on arrival in the neighbouring countries. From Europe, those who are returning have been denied refugee status at the end of asylum procedures or given up on the process. The European dimension of this problem is only the tip of the iceberg: since the beginning of 2015, returnees from Europe account for only 0.6% (14,943) of the total (2,316,558). While around 380,000 first-time asylum applicants from Afghanistan were registered in the European Union between January 2015 and June 2017, the different, complex and lengthy procedures in member states make it highly unlikely that those with unsuccessful applications would be sent back to Afghanistan in large numbers at the same time.

The international principle of ‘non-refoulement’ (no expulsion) prohibits the return of anyone to a place where they would face a serious risk of persecution, torture or other ill-treatment, or a threat to life. However, some governments have argued in favour of an ‘internal flight/protection alternative’, claiming that if asylum seekers have protection options within their own country, they can be returned. In the case of Afghanistan, the highly volatile and unpredictable nature of the protracted conflict makes it impossible to know whether a city or region that is stable now will remain that way for any extended period of time. Under such conditions, it cannot reasonably be found that an Afghan person no longer has a fear of persecution or other serious violations upon return, regardless of the location. Also, the Afghan state is currently unable to protect its citizens in any part of the country, which means there are no safe havens within Afghanistan.

Source: reliefweb

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