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The State of the Electric Vehicle

This weekly feature for Warranty Direct about car repair and maintenance is written by Tom Torbjornsen, the popular host of America’s Car Show on satellite radio.

Over the years trends develop in the auto industry by virtue of a phenomenon I call “media chatter.” Several press releases start to percolate to the surface from unrelated outlets in the media. For example, when Chrysler Corp was on the verge of bankruptcy the first time, chatter of an anticipated Daimler takeover (“merger?”) started bubbling up to the surface. Within just a few months it was announced that “A Merger of Giants” (Daimler Benz and Chrysler Corp) was about to take place. Later, it ended bitterly when the stock plummeted to historic lows ($25-$28 a share) and Daimler Executive Jurgeon Schremp was ousted. There were rumors that he had leaked information regarding the “merger,” and that it was never intended to be a merger but rather a takeover. It appears he was a few steps ahead of everyone else during negotiations, intending to acquire (rather than merge) with Chrysler. The point? Media chatter forecasted the “merger” long before it happened.

Lately the media chatter is singing a new tune about the electrification of the auto industry. For this reason, I believe we are on the cusp of widespread vehicular electrification. For the record, in previous articles I have stated that four things have to happen before widespread electrification of the auto industry could take place.

• Consumer acceptance of Electric vehicles
• Improvement of battery technology
• Accessibility to the charging infrastructure
• Support from the carmakers

Consumer acceptance of electric vehicles

This is a tough one given the existing hurdles of restricted distance due to limited battery technology and the lack of a charging infrastructure. However, the Chevy Volt is off to a good start. The combination of a small gas-powered generator to power and recharge the batteries is a green light for a long-range electric vehicle that provides the confidence to venture out. I believe this solution will generate wide demographic acceptance of electric vehicles, including baby boomers (who are somewhat skeptical about electrics), as well as Gen-Xers & Yers (who tend to be risk takers). The bottom line? People won’t drive electric vehicles unless they feel secure, knowing they won’t get stranded with a dead battery. Look for a nationwide educational campaign about the benefits of electric vehicles to begin this year.

Improvement of battery technology

This is still a distance off. Present battery technology simply does not offer enough freedom to consumers, enabling them to travel the distance guaranteed with a tank of gas or diesel fuel. Battery technology coupled with electric motor/drivetrain technologies must offer a distance of at least 200 – 300 miles on a Single Charge in all weather and roadway conditions before consumers accept electric vehicles on a widespread basis. Tesla seems to have breached this baseline. Tesla is the first production electric vehicle offered that travels more than 200 miles on a single charge. However, the obvious question arises, under what weather and roadway conditions were the Tesla roadsters able to log this kind of mileage under a single charge? The world distance record of 311 miles for a production electric car on a single charge was set by a Tesla roadster on October 27, 2009, during the Global Green Challenge. It took place in the Outback of Australia at an average speed of 25MPH. Now please understand that in the Outback of Australia during October it is summer weather. That said, 311 miles on a single charge is still not a bad number given the cushy circumstances under which it was logged. According to the EPA, the Tesla roadster can travel 244 miles on a single charge of its lithium-ion battery pack, and can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in 3.7 seconds (I can’t find the data defining the conditions under which these stats were logged). The roadster’s efficiency, as of September 2008, was reported as 120 MPG. So it seems that Tesla has definately started to break ground in the battery technology arena. Now the carmakers need to translate Tesla’s success to a full sized family sedan or SUV. There is the ticket to success in electric vehicles!

Accessibility to the charging infrastructure

A charging infrastructure has to be built before there is widespread acceptance of electric cars. With access to charging stations, consumers will no longer be anxious about the range of travel. Years ago, when the car industry was getting started, GM realized that in order for cars to become a working member of the family, a highway system had to be built to support travel. Hence GM supported the building of America’s Super Highway System, which stemmed the birth of suburbia, which in turn fueled the need for cars. The same logic applies to electrification of the car industry. Recent press releases indicate that some of the US & Japan’s automakers are working with power companies to develop a widespread charging station infrastructure that would first cover metropolitan areas, then spread across the country.

Support from the carmakers

As of the writing of this article, Ford, Mercedes, Toyota, and Chevrolet have all announced aggressive plans to bolster electric vehicle production. I expect more onboard this year.

In summary, sitting in the catbird seat of the automotive media, I have the opportunity to observe trends develop early on. The phenomenon I call “media chatter” begins long before a thing comes to the light of day. And the “media chatter” regarding electric vehicles is growing. In January these headlines all appeared within a week of each other:

• No Small Promise: Ford Delivers on Commitment With 10 New Small Cars and Electrification Plans DETROIT, Jan. 10, 2011 /PRNewswire

• IBM Study: Electric Cars Stir Interest But Face Obstacles Nearly one-fifth of drivers are likely to consider an electric vehicle Drivers reluctant to bear the cost of home charging ARMONK, N.Y., Jan. 11, 2011 /PRNewswire

• Johnson Controls Breaks Ground on Fully-Integrated Battery Recycling Facility FLORENCE, S.C., Jan. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire

• Detroit First Responders Get Electric Vehicle Safety Training. Chevrolet, OnStar and National Firefighters Prevention Association Host Sessions DETROIT, Jan. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/

• Germany “shifting” to electrically powered cars. 11th International Advanced Automotive Battery Conference BERLIN and PASADENA, California, January 21, 2011/PRNewswire/

So I ask you faithful readers… will we be driving electric cars soon? In my humble opinion, I think so. ZZZZZZZAAAAPPPPPPP!

‘Til next time…Keep Rollin’

Find Tom’s new book, “How To Make Your Car Last Forever” in local Barnes & Nobel, Borders, and Walden booksellers. Find it online at Amazon.com

For more articles by Tom Torbjornsen, visit AMERICA’S CAR SHOW web site: www.americascarshow.com

Tom Torbjornsen is an automotive expert of 37 years. An automotive journalist in good standing with the IMPA (International Motor Press Association) and MPG (Motor Press Guild), Torbjornsen is the Repair and Maintenance Editor for AOL Autos, At Home Portals, and many other websites. Hear his radio show AMERICA’S CAR SHOW, on the SSI Radio Network Saturdays at noon and on Sirius XM Satellite Radio Channel – Stars Too – Sirius 108 and XM 139; Sunday afternoons – 5PM EST, listen to the show on the live stream during regular show times at www.americascarshow.com. Send your car questions to his website at: www.americascarshow.com.



This post first appeared on Car Warranty Plans » Auto Warranties » W, please read the originial post: here

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The State of the Electric Vehicle

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