Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.
With very strong buying saturation based on both the slow stochastic and Bollinger Bands and the presence of an important psychological resistance, another move up in the immediate future doesn’t look likely. Instead, new buyers would traditionally look for a fairly small retracement to the area of about $1,880 based on ATR before looking to join another possible upward wave. There’s no critically important data for gold this week but sentiment on monetary policy can change rapidly, especially with active American markets from Tuesday.
Key data this week
Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.
Thursday 24 February
- 30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (second estimate, Q4) – consensus 7%, previous 2.3%
- 30 GMT: American quarterly GDP price index (second estimate, Q4) – consensus 6.9%, previous 5.9%
- 30 GMT: initial jobless claims (19 February) – consensus 235,000, previous 248,000
Friday 25 February
- 30 GMT: durable goods orders (January) – consensus 0.7%, previous negative 0.9%
- 30 GMT: American personal income (January) – consensus negative 0.3%, previous 0.3%
- 30 GMT: American personal spending (January) – consensus 1.5%, previous negative 0.6%
New Zealand dollar-US dollar, daily
Participants in forex markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike its cash rate to 1% on Wednesday morning. After two hikes last year, the RBNZ seems likely to hike its rate at every opportunity in 2022; if this impression holds over the next few days, the Kiwi dollar might try to move up more seriously. Despite unemployment in New Zealand at 3.2% – the lowest since equivalent records began in 1986 – and inflation at nearly 6%, a half percent hike doesn’t look like more than a remote possibility.
On the chart, the 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement – full retracement of all losses in the first quarter of 2020 – remains an important area that might continue to cap losses. However, the three moving averages above the prices also present potential hurdles if there’s a move up this week. Apart from the meeting of the RBNZ, traders of NZDUSD and others are looking ahead to Friday’s balance of trade from New Zealand as well.
Key data this week
Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.
Wednesday 23 February
- from 1.00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Thursday 24 February
- 30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (second estimate, Q4) – consensus 7%, previous 2.3%
- 30 GMT: American quarterly GDP price index (second estimate, Q4) – consensus 6.9%, previous 5.9%
- 30 GMT: initial jobless claims (19 February) – consensus 235,000, previous 248,000
- 45 GMT: New Zealand annual retail sales (Q4) – consensus 1.5%, previous negative 5.2%
- 45 GMT: New Zealand quarterly retail sales (Q4) – consensus 10.1%, previous negative 8.1%
Friday 25 February
- 30 GMT: durable goods orders (January) – consensus 0.7%, previous negative 0.9%
- 30 GMT: American personal income (January) – consensus negative 0.3%, previous 0.3%
- 30 GMT: American personal spending (January) – consensus 1.5%, previous negative 0.6%
- 45 GMT: New Zealand balance of trade (January) – consensus negative NZ$1.5 billion, previous negative NZ$477 million
The post Weekly data: RBNZ and US GDP appeared first on LeapRate.
