March 24, 2021

Key Takeaways:

• Residential sales dropped 28% Y-o-Y between March 2020 & February 2021, but activity accelerated considerably since October 2020
• NYC’s median sale price gained 3% in first 12 months of pandemic & remained above $700K for last five months
• Brooklyn sales activity remains closest to pre-pandemic levels, contracting only 22%
• Manhattan median sale price dropped 8%, while Bronx median climbed 17%
• Queens median sale price moves into $600K territory

After a sluggish 2019, 2020 began with increased Sales Activity in NYC’s residential market. In fact, the year was expected to be a strong one for the industry. But, as the coronavirus arrived in the U.S. and New York City became one of the early epicenters of COVID-19 on American soil, everything came to a grinding halt. Now, one year later, we’re taking a look at how the NYC residential market evolved and adapted to the new normal of pandemic life by analyzing the evolution of residential sales and Median sale prices between March 2020 and February 2021.

First Year of Pandemic Lifts NYC Median, but Buyer Activity Remains Significantly Reduced, Even after 5 Months of Rising Sales

As the pandemic swept New York and the U.S. and the economy began to suffer, many consumers put homebuying on hold or reoriented to areas outside of the tight urban core where lower density often meant lower transmission rates and earlier lifting of restrictions.

In very specific terms, by March 31, the impact of COVID-19 had already halved all year-over-year (Y-o-Y) growth that had occurred in Q1. As a result, March 2020 closed with sales up 6% Y-o-Y and marked the last and only month in the last year when sales Activity showed positive year-over-year trends for the city overall. By April, sales activity in NYC was down 55% Y-o-Y, registering only 1,568 transactions. Then, as lockdown measures eased in May, residential sales started slowly ticking up through July, despite the fact that sales activity stayed resolutely under 2,000 deals.

And then, in September, sales activity bottomed out, closing even fewer transactions than April. Six months into the pandemic, September saw only 1,559 deals registered for a staggering 56% Y-o-Y drop in transactional activity.

However, things started to turn around for NYC’s residential market in October 2020, which recorded 2,943 sales — down only 20% Y-o-Y —tentatively promising a return to pre -pandemic market conditions. Then finally, in December, NYC closed more than 3,000 sales for the first time since March. To that end, December’s 3,092 sales represented a mere 5% Y-o-Y contraction, making this the best-performing month since the beginning of the pandemic. In fact, sales activity in December actually inched up 1% Y-o-Y in Brooklyn and 3% in Queens.

In the new year, January 2021 saw 9% fewer sales close than January 2020. Even so, its 3,263 sales marked the highest deal volume since March 2020. And, although February came in 15% below year-ago figures, its 2,785 sales still pointed to strong transactional activity.

All in all, sales activity across the four boroughs between March 2020 and February 2021 was 28% cooler than it was between March 2019 and February 2020. However, the median sale price was up 3%, coming in at $700,000. More precisely, between March 2020 and February 2021, only two months had year-over-year decreases in the median sale price of the four boroughs.

While sales activity dropped vertiginously in March and April, the city’s median sale price remained up 7% Y-o-Y, with April reaching a city-wide median of $715,000. At the same time, lockdown measures started to ease in June and buyers came back from the sidelines. Consequently, increased sales activity lowered the median sale price as a wider range of residential stock changed hands.

But June and July’s declines were not only the result of increased transactional activity. Rather, monthly figures — both in terms of sales activity, as well as the median sale price — were also affected by the pre-mansion tax buying frenzy during the early summer of 2019, which artificially lifted the city’s median at the time. Still, July 2020’s $662,000 median marked the lowest pricing point in the past 12 months.

In the fall, September’s muted transactional activity came in tandem with the second-lowest median since the start of the pandemic — $675,0000 — but also marked the last time that NYC’s median sale price fell below $700,000 since the start of the pandemic. Conversely, November marked a 16-month pricing high for the city at $730,000, only to be overtaken by February 2021 — which, at $745,000, marked a new pricing high for the city after a 10% Y-o-Y climb.

Early Spring Exodus Marrs Manhattan’s Performance, but Sales Activity and Strong Pricing Picks Up in October

At the borough level, Manhattan was the only one to register a drop in its median sale price. In particular, between March 2020 and February 2021, Manhattan’s median declined 8% compared to the 12 months prior. Nevertheless, it remained the priciest by far, at a $1,025,000 median. And, while sales activity took an immediate hit in the first few months of the pandemic, Manhattan’s pricing trends were more diverse in the last 12 months.

Initially, the panic and uncertainty of March 2020 resulted in a 20% drop in Manhattan’s median, but April was up 15% Y-o-Y. Then, May showed a milder 7% decline before June’s 27% and July’s 26% Y-o-Y decreases, respectively. However, it’s worth noting that these steep declines were not only the result of the pandemic and shifting economy: They also represented the artificially inflated pricing and sales activity of the pre-mansion tax frenzy in the upper segments of the market.

Since October, the borough has been flexing its pricing muscles, with three of the past five months posting year-over-year gains, while the other two recorded only single-digit declines. In fact, November pushed Manhattan’s median up 11% Y-o-Y to hit a six-month high of $1.08 million, with the borough’s median sale price remaining firmly north of the million-dollar mark ever since.

Then, transactional activity truly took off in November with 739 deals, which represented a mere 18% Y-o-Y decline. That number was later surpassed in January 2021, which recorded 805 sales — just 11% fewer than the year before and a far cry from the 400 sales recorded in April 2020, the borough’s lowest point with a 60% Y-o-Y drop. The increased deal activity in recent months also lifted Manhattan’s overall performance, ending the first 12 months of the pandemic with 36% fewer residential sales than the 12 months prior.

Bronx Median Climbs 17%, but Sales Remain 30% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

The Bronx remained the lowest-priced borough but recorded the sharpest rate of median sale price growth — 17% — between March 2020 and February 2021. As for sales activity in the Bronx, it was down 30% Y-o-Y in the first 12 months of the pandemic. 

Here, the lockdown months were marked by a dramatic drop in transactional activity, with April and May down 53% and 52% Y-o-Y, respectively. Then, as restrictions eased in June, buyers dipped their toes into the market, with July 2020 recording just 27% fewer sales than July 2019. However, in September, sales activity bottomed out with a mere 147 recorded sales — 56% fewer than the 335 that took place in September 2019.

Fortunately, buyers have returned with more confidence since October, with monthly sales staying above -27% Y-o-Y (January 2021). In fact, February 2021 sales were only 11% below year-ago figures and December’s 279 deals represented a slight 4% Y-o-Y contraction to make it the hottest month of sales since March 2020.

However, while pricing trends were firmly positive throughout the first 12 months of the pandemic, the growth rate fluctuated significantly. For example, as sales activity sharply contracted at the start of the pandemic, the median sale price went vertical in April 2020 — surging 30% Y-o-Y — followed by May and June with 23%. Then, July’s increase in sales activity put the brakes on with a more modest 9% Y-o-Y increase, before September’s absolute lowest price gain of 2020 — up only 3% Y-o-Y.  

Eventually, price gains returned to double-digit territory — albeit barely — along with buyer interest later in the fall. But, October and November’s 11% and 14% spikes, respectively, were followed by a mere 4% uptick in December, which was the hottest month for sales since the start of the pandemic. What’s more, since October 2020, December was the only month when the Bronx’s median sale price dipped below $500,000.

This is an especially notable achievement that may promise further pricing gains for the borough, considering that the Bronx’s median for the first 12 months of the pandemic stood at $490,000. The trend was also reinforced at the beginning of the new year, with January up 26% Y-o-Y and February’s $522,500 median the result of a 31% gain over February 2020’s $400,000 median sale price.

Queens Closes 26% Fewer Sales in First 12 Months of Pandemic, Lifts Median to $600K

Queens — typically the most active residential market of all the boroughs — retained the highest sales activity during the pandemic. Still, Queens registered 26% fewer deals between March 2020 and February 2021 than in the previous 12 months.

The start of the crisis more than halved sales in the borough, making for a 54% Y-o-Y drop, with April’s 552 sales marking the absolute lowest number of monthly sales since the start of the crisis. As was the case across the city, the easing of restrictions brought some buyers back into the market in Queens early in the summer, with July’s 29% Y-o-Y decrease seen as a sign of returning normality. However, confidence evaporated by September, when sales activity hit its sharpest rate of contraction, closing 56% fewer sales than September 2019.

On the bright side, buyers returned with more confidence in October — and have mostly stayed ever since: Not only did October close almost double the sales that September did, but it was also the first month that the borough saw more than 1,000 sales since March 2020. In fact, since then, only February has closed fewer than 1,000 deals – and it missed the mark by just 31 sales. Plus, December’s 1,211 transactions made it the hottest month for sales since the start of the crisis and brought the first positive change, with December 2020 up 3% over December 2019.

Pricing trends were mostly positive through the first 12 months of the pandemic. But, unlike Manhattan or the Bronx, changes in Queens’ median sale price were more balanced. Even as sales activity was halved in April, the borough’s median climbed only 16% and stayed in single digit fluctuations until October. Later, July’s tentative buying surge brought the median down 6%, while September’s transactional slump was paired with a 2% decrease in the borough’s median sale price.

The return of transactional activity observed since October also brought with it a return to price growth in the low teens. With the exception of January’s 7% Y-o-Y gain, each month since October has posted a median that was 11% to 13% higher than its 2019 counterpart. Consequently, this lifted the borough’s median sale price to $640,000 on three separate occasions. As a result, Queens’ median sale price for the first 12 months of the pandemic came in at $600,000 — 9% higher than the 12 months that preceded it.

Brooklyn Sales Record Modest Gains Twice, Median Stuck Above $800K Since October

Brooklyn was the only other borough to observe any growth in sales activity during the first 12 months of the pandemic. It was also the only borough to have two months finish with positive year-over-year growth for its sales activity. Nevertheless, between March 2020 and February 2021, there were still 22% fewer sales recorded in Brooklyn than in the previous 12 months.

While March 2020 held strong — recording 10% more sales than March 2019 — by April, transactional activity had been halved. May 2020 fared a little better, coming in 36% below May 2019. By June, buyers who were hopeful due to the easing of pandemic measures had heated up sales activity to just -22% Y-o-Y. But that was short-lived, and July saw transactional activity freefall once again. By September, Brooklyn’s sales activity had bottomed out, with only 426 recorded sales for the absolute lowest figure in the first year of the pandemic.

Here, too, October was the turning point. With 929 sales closed, October 2020 marked a 4% Y-o-Y gain — the highest year-over-year increase in sales observed in any borough in the first 12 months of the pandemic. December 2020 recorded a slight uptick in sales, as well — although its 1% bump in activity would be considered negligible under normal circumstances.

And, while November, January and February all closed fewer residential sales than 12 months prior, no month slumped below a 7% Y-o-Y decrease. As a result, Brooklyn’s sales activity was the closest to pre-pandemic levels of activity, signaling good news for the borough.

Overall, Brooklyn’s pricing trends were mostly positive throughout the first 12 months of the pandemic, with its median sale price coming in at $788,000 for a 6% gain over the previous 12 months. But, unlike other areas of the city, the sudden drop in sales activity during the first months of the crisis also brought a cooling of the median sale price growth rate.  

Specifically, while March 2020’s median was up 9% Y-o-Y, by April, pricing had slowed to a near-negligible 1% Y-o-Y. Then, it stayed below 5% until the easing of restrictions enticed more buyers to test the waters at the beginning of summer. However, July, August and September also made the median sale price contract, with August’s decline the sharpest at -7%.

Fortunately, price growth picked up the pace — along with sales activity — in October. In particular, October’s 15% Y-o-Y increase was the borough’s sharpest by that point and lifted Brooklyn’s median sale price above $800,000 for the first time since the start of the crisis — and it’s stayed firmly north of $800,000 ever since.

Brooklyn closed the year with a December median of $825,000, which was then surpassed by February’s $860,000 median sales price — the absolute highest since the beginning of the pandemic, by a significant margin. In fact, it represented 21% Y-o-Y increase, coming in $152,000 higher than February 2020 and potentially suggesting a new pricing territory for the borough.

Methodology

For this snapshot of the COVID-19 pandemic’s influence on the NYC residential market, we considered all sales of condo, co-op, single- and two-family homes registered between January 1, 2019, and February 28, 2021. All package deals and all sales less than $10,000 have been excluded. We defined NYC as the four boroughs of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens. We defined the first 12 months of the pandemic as March 2020 through February 2021.

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September 17, 2020

NYC Median Sale Price Hits Yearly Low, Sales Drop Below 2,000 Once Again

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold across the U.S., every day reveals new information and ramifications. For NYC — one of the early epicenters of the pandemic — a key industry on watch is real estate. And, because few industries are as central to the life and character of New York as real estate, PropertyShark is providing regular insights into the pandemic’s influence on the city’s residential market.

Key Takeaways:

• With 1,893 deals, NYC sales drop 19% M-o-M and 45% Y-o-Y in August
• City median drops to $665,000 in August, marking lowest monthly figure YTD
• Manhattan median misses million-dollar mark for third time in six months
• At $553,400, Queens records lowest median sale price YTD
• Bronx median continues downward trend since May peak, stabilizing at $453,000
• Brooklyn median drops below $700,000 for first time this year

As New York State continues onward in Phase Four, the performance of the residential real estate market is of heightened interest — especially in the context of shifting consumer habits and trends. While 2020 started off well and promised increased sales activity, projections and expectations were later shattered by the uncertainty and upheaval of March and historically low sales levels in April.

Meanwhile, as the curve flattened, the state’s gradual reopening brought a tentative return of transactional activity in May, followed by a June characterized by strengthening sales trends and the first significant year-over-year (Y-o-Y) price drop, despite recording the highest median sale price this year at $717,733. Then came July, which brought with it the sharpest decrease of the four boroughs’ median sale price, combined with the strongest month of sales since March.

Meanwhile, August was marked by the lowest median sale price of the year at $665,000 and sales dropped 19% below July levels.

Since the beginning of the crisis, transactional activity has consistently trended negative year-over-year. While March kicked off with sales activity in its first week 15% higher than the same period last year, by the end of the month, weekly sales had dropped 36% Y-o-Y.

Then, sales activity bottomed out in April — its 1,549 deals equated to a 61% Y-o-Y drop. And, while May’s 1,337 recorded sales were certainly a drop in sheer numbers compared to April, they also represented a decrease of only 52% Y-o-Y, promising a tentative return of transactional activity.

June brought even more activity to the NYC housing market, with the month’s 1,670 sales coming in just 41% below June 2019 levels. However, it must be noted that June 2020 figures were skewed beyond the effects of the pandemic’s– sales activity and the median sale price surged artificially in June 2019 as buyers and sellers rushed to close deals before the new mansion tax went into effect in July 2019.

Meanwhile, July 2020 continued to build upon June’s momentum and marked the first month in which sales surpassed 2,000 monthly transactions since March. In fact, July’s 2,343 sales represented a contraction of just 33% Y-o-Y — the lowest rate since the start of the crisis. Moreover, compared to June, sales activity experienced a month-over-month (M-o-M) surge of 40%.

August, however, broke the three-month growth streak with its lackluster total of 1,893 sales — 19% fewer than July. Overall, sales activity across the four boroughs was down 45% compared to August 2019, representing the sharpest year-over-year rate of contraction in three months.

At the beginning of the crisis, pricing trends remained firmly positive and the NYC median sale price stood steadily above the same period last year. Specifically, both March and April boasted a 5% Y-o-Y price gain. Moreover, each week in March also posted a median sale price higher than the same period in 2019 — a trend that continued throughout April.

Overall, May kept up with that trend, as well, and closed with a median sale price of $705,000 for a 4% gain over May 2019. But, the trend began to shift in June and reversed completely in July.

June 2020 actually kicked off with the strongest pricing trends of the year. In fact, the NYC median sale price was $743,000 in its first week, which pushed the month’s overall median to $717,700. This also made June 2020 the most expensive month YTD, even as it closed with a 2% Y-o-Y drop in its median (which was influenced, once again, by the artificially inflated pricing of June 2019).

July, however, presented a whole new picture. While the $780,000 median of July 2019 also reflected the pre-mansion tax sales frenzy that had occurred in the upper end of the market, this was not the sole cause of the 13% Y-o-Y drop that was recorded in July 2020. Rather, up to that point, July’s $680,000 median sale price was the lowest median since March.

Unfortunately, August prices trended even lower, declining 2% M-o-M and 1% Y-o-Y. What’s more, August’s $665,000 median became the lowest NYC median sale price YTD, dipping another .5% lower than February, which was previously the lowest-priced month of the year with a $668,277 median.

And, while Q2’s elevated pricing trends resulted in a median sale price of $690,000 for the first half of 2020 — and a 3% gain over H1 2019 — the contrary pricing trends and negative Y-o-Y price growth in July and August completely erased that.

In fact, the July and August medians also brought the city’s YTD median down to $685,000, resulting in flat price growth Y-o-Y. At the same time, YTD activity totaled 18,542 sales — down 29% compared to the same timeframe last year.

Of the four boroughs, Manhattan was the hardest hit residential market in the first half of 2020. Here, sales activity was down 31% Y-o-Y and the median sale price dropped 13%. Specifically, the first half of 2019 totaled 5,487 residential sales for a median sale price of $1.2 million, whereas the first half of 2020 recorded 3,775 sales for a $1.05 million median.

In fact, since the pandemic began, only April saw prices increase Y-o-Y, and that month’s $1.34 million median remains the borough’s peak year-to-date. On the other end of the spectrum, June’s median underwent a Y-o-Y price contraction of 37%, due, in part, to the rush to close high-end deals prior to the mansion tax during the year prior. That push also contributed to July’s 26% Y-o-Y drop, even as the median stabilized at $1.15 million.

August wrapped up with negative pricing trends across the board, coming in 5% below August 2019 figures and contracting 15% M-o-M. Moreover, August 2020’s $977,500 median became the third-lowest median sale price of the current year. It was also the third month in which the median sale price slipped below the $1 million mark in Manhattan.

From a sales activity perspective, July’s 633 sales made it Manhattan’s strongest month since March. That figure represented a 36% Y-o-Y drop in sales — the least-drastic decrease since March. But, similar to its pricing trends, the borough’s sales activity was also reduced in August, closing 536 sales for a 15% contraction M-o-M and a 46% drop Y-o-Y.

As a result, Manhattan’s YTD sales activity totaled 4,944 transactions — down 34% compared to the first eight months of 2019. The borough’s YTD median was also lower than the same period last year, although its $1.05 million median represented a more modest contraction of 14%.

On the other hand, the Queens housing market continued to navigate the health and economic crisis in a much calmer manner, all things considered. Its sales activity was down 22% Y-o-Y in the first half 2020, but its median sale price actually went up 10% for the highest price increase across the four boroughs YTD.

In fact, although sales activity growth in the borough bottomed out at a negative 58% in April, the median sale price jumped 19% to reach a year-to-date high of $630,000, followed closely by June’s $619,000. Then, a $576,500 median in July made it the only month of the year with negative price growth Y-o-Y. More precisely, Queens’ July 2020 median sale price was 10% below July 2019, which had been that year’s most expensive month up to that point.

Meanwhile, August 2020’s median sale price came in at $553,400 for a drop of 4% M-o-M, but a gain of 2% Y-o-Y. It’s also worth noting that August’s median is the lowest median sale price in Queens year-to-date.

And, while sales activity reached a four-month high in July with 855 transactions, August slipped, recording 738 sales and reversing a three-month trend of strengthening sales activity. In fact, August sales were down 40% Y-o-Y, bringing the borough’s sales activity down by another 200 basis points YTD compared to the same period last year.

As a result, Queens recorded a total 6,730 sales YTD — 25% fewer than in 2019 — while its $580,000 YTD median was 5% higher than it was in the first eight months of 2019.

Further north, Bronx sales activity also remained in negative growth territory, coming in -38% Y-o-Y compared to August 2019 for the sharpest rate of contraction in three months. This followed July’s 22% Y-o-Y contraction, which was the lowest in four months and had given hope for more sustained growth.

Unfortunately, that was not the case. July’s 260 sales were followed by 182 transactions in August. That brought the borough’s sales activity to 1,861 sales YTD, 26% fewer than the first eight months of 2019.

Although the Bronx closed the first half of 2020 with the lowest median sale price of the four boroughs (as usual), it actually recorded the second-highest price increase. Specifically, its 8% Y-o-Y gain took its H1 median sale price from $420,000 in 2019 to $455,000 in 2020.

In particular, May brought a 33% price surge to the Bronx and lifted the median sale price to a year-to-date high of $531,000. Likewise, although July’s median was a more modest $493,500, it was still up 7% Y-o-Y — a notable achievement considering that July was the borough’s priciest month in 2019 up to that point. 

August came in 8% below July, but its $452,000 median represented a 13% Y-o-Y gain and continued the Bronx’s positive pricing trends that have been constant since the beginning of the crisis. All in all, the Bronx posted a median sale price of $463,000 YTD for a 9% gain over the same period last year.

From a pricing perspective, Brooklyn performed somewhat weaker in the first six months of the year. Its $750,000 median sale price was just 3% higher than it was in the first half of 2019. And, while 2020 transactional activity bottomed out at only 395 sales in May, Brooklyn’s median sale price surged to a year-to-date high of $820,000, followed closely by June’s $799,000 median sale price.

However, July brought an end to the borough’s positive price trends, registering a 9% Y-o-Y drop, followed by August with an equal 9% Y-o-Y contraction. As a result, Brooklyn’s August median stabilized at $691,631, becoming the lowest median sale price of the year in the borough. It also marked the first time that the median dropped below $700,000 this year.

Furthermore, the past two months’ pricing trends also depressed any pricing gains from H1, bringing Brooklyn’s year-to-date median to $748,414 for a .21% downtick compared to same period last year.

Along the same lines, Brooklyn’s August sales activity came in at 437 transactions, marking the second-slowest month of sales this year. In fact, only May had fewer sales (395), with April’s 439 deals almost tying August. That resulted in a 52% Y-o-Y drop in sales — the second-sharpest drop in transactional activity here in 2020.

As a result, the borough’s year-to-date sales activity went down by an additional 377 basis points, resulting in a 28% contraction compared to the first eight months of 2019.

Methodology

For this snapshot of the COVID-19 pandemic’s influence on the NYC residential market, we considered all sales of condo, co-op, single- and two-family homes registered between January 1, 2019, and August 31, 2019, as well as January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2020. We excluded all sales below $10,000, as well as all package deals. We defined NYC as the four boroughs of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens.

August 25, 2019

Sales Surpass 2,000 for 1st Time Since March, as July Brings Increased Activity to NYC Housing Market

Key Takeaways:

• Sales activity continued to strengthen in NYC, with July 2020 up 40% M-o-M and down only 33% Y-o-Y
• Weekly sales surpassed 500 transactions for first time in 15 weeks, monthly sales top 2,000 for first time in four months
• Queens median sale price marks first Y-o-Y drop, down 10% in July
• At $1.065 million, Manhattan YTD median slides 15% below 2019 figures
• The Bronx has highest price growth with July median up 7% Y-o-Y
• Brooklyn median drops 9% Y-o-Y, virtually erasing year-to-date gains

After a tumultuous first half of the year, all of the state of New York is now in Phase Four of reopening, which means the performance of the residential market performance is of heightened interest. The year actually started off well, promising increased sales activity — until projections and expectations were shattered by the uncertainty and upheaval of March. It was followed by an April marked by historical lows in sales activity and the strongest pricing trends of 2020 up to that point. 

However, as the curve flattened and the general public started readjusting to the new normal, the state’s gradual reopening brought a tentative return of transactional activity in May. Then, June  presented a whole new picture with strengthening sales trends and the first significant year-over-year (Y-o-Y) price drop, despite recording the highest median sale price this year at $717,733.

July, however, posted the sharpest decrease of the four boroughs’ median sale price, and also marked the strongest month of sales since March.

Transactional activity, of course, has trended negative since the beginning of the crisis. March kicked off with sales activity 15% higher than the same period last year, only to see it drop 36% Y-o-Y by month’s end. Later, sales activity bottomed out in April — its 1,549 deals equated to a 61% Y-o-Y drop. And, while May’s 1,337 recorded sales were certainly a drop in sheer numbers compared to April, they also represented a decrease of only 52% Y-o-Y, promising a tentative return of transactional activity.

In June, sales trends strengthened even further and, at this point, the monthly sales activity was the highest since the beginning of the crisis in March. Specifically, there were 1,670 residential sales for the month, coming in just 41% lower Y-o-Y. However, it must be noted that June 2020 figures were skewed beyond just the pandemic’s effects – sales activity and the median sale price surged artificially in June 2019 as buyers and sellers rushed to close deals before the new mansion tax went into effect in July 2019.

Similarly, July marked only one week with fewer than 400 sales. What’s more, two weeks of the month surpassed 500 transactions — a level of transactional activity not seen since late March. In fact, the second week of the month totaled 562 sales, just four deals shy of equaling the last week of March.

What’s more, the third week of July recorded a 23% Y-o-Y drop — the smallest rate of contraction in sales activity since the third week of March. All in all, July’s sales activity was the most dynamic in the last four months, closing a total of 2,343 deals across the four boroughs for a drop of just 33% Y-o-Y. Moreover, compared to June, sales activity experienced a month-over-month surge of 40%.

While pricing trends remained firmly positive at the beginning of the crisis and the NYC median sale price remained steadily above the same period last year, that trend started shifting in June and reversed completely in July.

Specifically, both March and April boasted a 5% Y-o-Y price expansion. Moreover, each week in March also posted a median sale price higher than the same period in 2019 — a trend that remained steady throughout April. Overall, May kept up with that trend, as well, and closed with a median sale price of $705,000 for a 4% gain over May 2019.

Along the same lines, June 2020 kicked off with the strongest pricing trends so far this year. The NYC the median sale price was $743,000 in its first week, which pushed the month’s overall median to $717,700. This also made June 2020 the most expensive month YTD, even as it closed with a 2% Y-o-Y drop in its median, which was influenced, once again, by the artificially inflated pricing in June 2019.

July, however, presented a whole new picture. While the $780,000 median of July 2019 also reflected the pre-mansion tax sales frenzy that had occurred in the upper end of the market, this was not the sole cause of the 13% Y-o-Y drop that was recorded in July 2020. Rather, at $680,000, July 2020 featured the lowest median sale price since March, bringing down the YTD median for the four boroughs.

So, while the elevated pricing trends of Q2 resulted in a H1 median sale price of $690,000 and a 3% gain over H1 2019, the contrary pricing trends of July almost completely erased that. In particular, July 2019’s artificially inflated median — paired with a July 2020 that was more in line with pre-pandemic figures — brought the YTD median sale price in NYC to $687,419, representing a negligible .35% Y-o-Y gain. 

At the same time, year-to-date sales activity stood at 16,559 transactions, down 26% compared to the same timeframe last year. As a result, July’s recovering sales activity also decreased the YTD sales activity by only 1% Y-o-Y.

Manhattan was the hardest hit residential market in the city in the first half of the year. Here, sales activity was down 31% Y-o-Y and the median sale price dropped 13%. Specifically, the first half of 2019 totaled 5,487 residential sales for a median sale price of $1.2 million, while H1 2020 recorded 3,775 sales for a $1.05 million median. While pricing trends remained firmly positive in the other three boroughs throughout Q2, for Manhattan, that was the exception rather than the rule.

In fact, only April saw prices increase Y-o-Y reaching a YTD high of $1.34 million — while both March and June slipped under the $1 million mark, reaching $950,000 and $966,000, respectively. June’s median also resulted in a Y-o-Y price contraction of 37% — due, in part, to the rush to close high-end deals prior to the mansion tax during the year prior. From a sales activity perspective, July’s 633 sales made for Manhattan’s strongest month since the beginning of the crisis. That figure represented a 36% Y-o-Y drop in sales — the least-drastic decrease since March.

At the same time, the median sale price for NYC’s most expensive borough came in at $1.15 million, down 26% Y-o-Y. But, it must be noted that of all the boroughs, Manhattan’s year-ago metrics were the most influenced by the spike in sales of higher-priced assets prior to the mansion tax,  pushing July 2019’s median to $1.56 million. Additionally, Manhattan was the only borough to record M-o-M price growth in July, gaining 19% for a $1.15 million median in July.

On the other hand, Queens seemed to navigate the crisis in the calmest manner, all things considered. Its sales activity was down 22% Y-o-Y in the first half 2020, but its median sale price went up 10%, for the highest price increase across the four boroughs. In fact, although sales activity growth in the borough bottomed out at a negative 58% in April, the median sale price jumped 19% to reach a YTD high of $630,000, followed closely by June’s $619,000.

July, however, reversed the upward trend in price growth observed in the first half of the year, becoming the first month  in 2020 so far with negative price growth Y-o-Y. More precisely, at $576,500, Queens’ July median sale price was 10% below July 2019 — which, at $640,000, was 2019’s most expensive month up until that point. As a result, July 2020’s median was more in line with early 2020 pricing trends as opposed to the elevated medians recorded in Q2 and brought the borough’s YTD median to $584,500

Sales activity, however, strengthened in July, reaching 855 transactions and making this Queens’ most active month since March. In particular, July sales were down 28% Y-o-Y, resulting in the lowest rate of contraction in four months. Meanwhile, sales were up 55% compared to June — a promising sign in what is usually the most active borough for residential sales. Overall, that brought Queens’ YTD sales activity to 5,992 deals — 23% lower than the same period last year.

In the meantime, Bronx sales activity remained in negative growth territory Y-o-Y, coming in 22% below July 2019 for the lowest Y-o-Y decrease in sales activity across the four boroughs. But, the Bronx’s 260 sales recorded in July also represented a 60% increase M-o-M. That brought the borough’s number of sales to 1,679 YTD, for a 24% decrease compared to the first seven months of 2019.

Although the Bronx closed the first half of 2020 with the lowest median sale price of the four boroughs as usual, it actually recorded the second-highest price increase. Specifically, its 8% Y-o-Y gain took its H1 median sale price from $420,000 in 2019 to $455,000 in 2020. In fact, May brought a 33% price surge to the Bronx and lifted the median sale price to a YTD high of $531,000. Likewise, although July’s median was a more modest $493,500, it was still up 7% Y-o-Y – a notable achievement considering that July was 2019’s priciest month by that point.  

From a pricing perspective, Brooklyn performed somewhat weaker in the first six months of the year. Its $750,000 median sale price was just 3% higher than it was in the first half of 2019. And, while 2020 transactional activity bottomed out at only 395 sales in May, Brooklyn’s median sale price surged to a YTD high of $820,000, followed closely by June’s $799,000 median sale price.

July’s median came in at $742,500, down 9% compared to the July 2019 median of $815,000. As a result, the borough’s YTD median of $750,000 also represented a 1% increase over the same period last year.

However, Brooklyn’s YTD sales activity was down 24% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 4,480 sales recorded in the first seven months of the year. Sales activity here contracted at the least sharpest rate in H1, coming in 21% below the first half of 2019.

July sales activity, however, did not experience the same influential increase in Brooklyn as the other three boroughs. It came in 41% lower than July 2019. But, compared to June 2020, sales were up, with its 595 sales representing a 19% gain M-o-M.

Methodology

For this snapshot of the COVID-19 pandemic’s influence on the NYC residential market, we considered all sales of condo, co-op, single- and two-family homes registered between January 1, 2019, and August 2, 2019, as well as January 1, 2020, and July 31, 2020. We excluded all sales below $10,000, as well as all package deals. We defined NYC as the four boroughs of Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens.

July 14, 2020

NYC Residential Sales Down 25% Y-o-Y, Median Up 3% as Tumultuous H1 Closes

Key Takeaways:

• Manhattan real estate market hit hardest of the four boroughs, both in terms of pricing as well as sales.
• Queens median sale price up 10% Y-o-Y in H1 for highest increase in the four boroughs
• Brooklyn sales activity contracted at the least sharpest rate, recording only -21% Y-o-Y in H1.
• At $455,000, the Bronx’s median sale price gained 8% Y-o-Y.
• NYC median sale price hit $718,000 in June for highest figure year-to-date.
• Sales activity continued to strengthen across the four boroughs, but June 2020 remained 41% below June 2019.

With NYC now in Phase Three of reopening and the rest of the state in Phase Four, the residential market’s performance is of heightened interest, after a tumultuous first half of the year.  The year started off promising increased sales activity, only for projections and expectations to be shattered by the uncertainty and upheaval of March, followed by an April marked by historical lows in sales activity and the strongest pricing trends of 2020 by that point. 

As the curve flattened and the general public started becoming accustomed to the new normal, the state started slowly reopening and brought a tentative return of transactional activity in May. June, however, presented a whole new picture with strengthening sales trends and the first significant year-over-year price drop, despite recording the highest median sale price this year at $717,733.

Transactional activity, of course, has trended negative since the start of the crisis. Marched kicked off with sales activity in its first week 15% higher than the same period last year, only to see it drop 36% year-over-year by the end of the month.  Sales activity bottomed out in April at 61% below April 2019, with a mere 1,549 deals recorded in the four boroughs in the entire month.

May, however, brought a tentative return of transactional activity, with a total of 1,337 sales recorded. While that figure may have been lower than April’s 1,549 deals, year-over-year, May marked a 52% drop in sales activity, as opposed to April’s 61%. June saw sales trends strengthen further, with its monthly sales activity the highest since the start of the crisis in March, coming in just 41% lower year-over-year.

It must be noted that June 2020 figures are skewed beyond the pandemic’s effects, since sales activity and the median sale price surged artificially in June 2019 as NYC buyers and sellers rushed to close deals before the new mansion tax went into effect in July 2019. All in all, 1,670 residential sales were recorded between June 1 and June 28, 2020. Of this, 476 were recorded in the third week of the month, marking the strongest week of sales since late March.

Meanwhile, pricing trends were firmly positive through most of the crisis, and the median sale price in NYC remained steadily above the same period last year – until June. Specifically, both March and April boasted a 5% year-over-year price expansion. What’s more, each week of March also posted a median sale price higher than the same period in 2019 — a trend that remained steady throughout April.

June kicked off with the strongest pricing trends so far this year, posting a median sale price of $743,000, surpassing May figures. That represented a 2% gain over year-ago figures, a notable achievement considering June 2019 featured the strongest pricing trends of H1 2019. The rest of the month however, consistently posted weekly median sale prices lower than their year-ago correspondents – again due to the artificially strengthened pricing trends of 2019.

As a result, June marked the first noticeable year-over-year price contraction, coming in 2% below the year-ago median of $735,000. However, June 2020’s median sale price of $717,733 also marked the highest median sale price year-to-date, outpacing April and pushing May to the third spot. Additionally, June’s median pushed the median sale price for NYC in H1 up $5,000 – or 1% – in just one month.

All in all, year-to-date NYC saw a total of 14,216 sales, 25% fewer than in the first half of 2019. Pricing trends, however, remained positive, with the year-to-date median sale price across the four boroughs coming in at $690,000, for a 3% gain over H1 2019. Drilling down to the borough level, significant disparities arise when looking at the first half of 2020.

Manhattan emerged as the hardest hit residential market in the city, with H1 sales activity down 31% year-over-year and the median sale price 13% lower. Specifically, the first half of 2019 totaled 5,487 residential sales for a median sale price of $1.2 million, while H1 2020 recorded 3,775 sales for a $1.05 million median. While pricing trends remained firmly positive in the other three boroughs throughout the crisis, for Manhattan that was the exception rather than the rule.

Only April saw prices increase year-over-year, reaching a year-to-date high of $1.32 million. Furthermore, both March and June slipped under the million mark, reaching $950,000 and $966,000, respectively. In fact, June’s median resulted in a year-over-year price contraction of 37%. This was influenced not only by current conditions, but also by June 2019’s r