The Property Investor’s Blog would like to thank all contributors for their input and we hope it will be a useful resource.

Chief Economist at the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), Simon Rubinsohn

“Housing market activity set to weaken again in 2019: The UK residential market has continued to struggle against several well-established obstacles over the past year. Affordability issues, a lack of stock, political uncertainty and the prospect of further interest rate rises have all been factors seemingly weighing on activity to varying degrees.

Sentiment has remained relatively subdued as a result, with new buyer demand tailing-off gradually throughout much of 2018. Sales volumes have also weakened during the past twelve months, while house price inflation has continued to cool at the national level. In the near term at least, we remain unconvinced that activity trends will break away from the recent sluggish picture.

Nevertheless, tackling the challenge around supply and affordability remains a primary goal on the domestic political agenda, with the prime minister announcing a scrapping of the local authority lending cap for housebuilding in the latest attempt to boost delivery. Just how effective the policy measure will be in lifting housebuilding remains to be seen, but, either way, the government still faces a huge task in
reaching their 300,000 new homes per year target 2022.

Rental growth to accelerate slightly: The challenge around supply is no less of a problem on the lettings side of the residential market, with policy changes in recent years not helping in this regard. The additional Stamp Duty surcharge payable for buy-to-let investments has certainly had a lasting impact on slowing numbers of landlords entering the market.

Furthermore, the phasing out of mortgage interest relief, with further reductions still to come over the next few years, is also being factored into investors’ decisions. As it stands, the RICS indicator tracking landlord instructions coming to market has already been in negative territory for ten successive quarters. This is the longest stretch of declining supply in the rental market since the series began in 1999.

On a more positive note, according to the British Property Federation, institutional development of purpose-built rental properties has picked-up. The number of completed build to rent units increased by 26% in the twelve month to Q3 2018, now standing at 26,000. The pipeline going forward also appears strong, with construction underway on a further 42,000 units while 64,000 are in planning. That said, considering there are an estimated 4.6million households in the private rented sector, these numbers remain on a pretty small scale.”

Simon Rubinsohn @RICSnews – Chief Economist, Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)

Director of Savills Residential Research, Lucian Cook

Property Expert, Henry Pryor

“Things are going to get worse before they get better. In Q1, the run-up to our actual divorce at the end of March there will continue to be people who have to sell. Death, debt and divorce – the three D’s as we call them in the industry will continue to drive the sale side but how many people ‘must’ buy? The only ones I think who will be confident doing so will demand something for the risk they will think they are taking which in most cases will be a discount on the price. Housing market statistics are based on deals done three or four months earlier, on average 60 days before the sale completes so regardless of whether we crash out on 29th March or enter a new golden era the statistics in May, June and July will show prices falling. This may result in buyers panicking that prices are still falling after Brexit resulting in more uncertainty and the cycle gathering its own downwards momentum.

I don’t think that the housing market is going to test the Bank of Englands models by crashing by 30% but I do expect prices to slip by 10-15% – the discount that most buyers I imagine will demand if they are going to commit to what for most will be their most expensive single purchase. Savvy sellers will need to remember that they can make up for this by negotiating similar discounts on what the go on to buy.

As always there will continue to be regional disparity, prices in some parishes will rise whilst others will fall further. As Phil & Kirsty remind us, it’s about location, location, location. Best in class will always sell and will always be sought after.

London and the South East have seen the real house price growth over the last decade, they stand to lose the most but I expect rental prices to slide back too. Brexit is just one iceberg that we need to navigate a way past in 2019 – politics, the economy and confidence, in general, will all have a significant part to play on prices. If I’m honest, I don’t know what’s going to happen to prices in the medium to long term but one thing you can be confident of is that a house will always be worth one house.”

Henry Pryor @henrypryor – Property Expert

Land, Planning & Development Expert and CEO at Millbank, Paul Higgs

“In terms of my personal approach, I’ve always been risk averse and detail orientated – which is fundamental in property development as it really is a super risky business, even at the best of times. With any deal, I spend a lot of time researching every aspect thoroughly and exploring all the exit options given various scenarios. Ultimately, I want to create maximum value from the start and a decent ‘buffer’ regardless of where the market is heading.

Over the last few years, I’ve taken an even more cautious attitude to anything I want to get involved with. Obviously, no one can predict the market or know what’s really going to happen – but as I’ve been through a few crashes, I’m well aware of the signs, potential triggers and where things might end up.

Prior to the Brexit vote, for example, I suspected that if we did vote to leave there would be a great deal of uncertainty in the market. The market obviously hates uncertainty and in development everything is exacerbated further because of the long timescales involved in the process. I didn’t want to be in the middle of building and selling if the vote was made to exit, or worse still when the time approached to actually exit – i.e. now. As a result, for the past couple of years I’ve been focusing on adding maximum value to land, which is always my strategy actually, but with a view to flipping sites with planning rather than holding them to build-out.

London and South East prices have plateaued for the last year and a half in reality so I’ve also been a bit more involved helping-out JV Partners on bigger sites in areas like Birmingham, Liverpool and Leeds, where the market has largely continued to move in the right direction.

Obviously the more traditional strategies like buy-to-let have become harder (due to the SDLT changes, Section 24, increased regulation etc.). As a result, many property investors have shifted into development thinking it’s the ‘next best thing’.

What’s often forgotten is that property investment and property development are massively different things. People think that if they have been in property for a while and maybe have a large portfolio of single lets or HMOs, then jumping into development makes logical sense when, in fact, there’s a very steep learning curve.

As a result, there have been lots of new entrants coming into the development space in recent years who are buying sites on the market, bidding too much, overpaying and generally getting their figures wrong. Often, people can get into a mess and the market comes to the rescue. But where we are now in the market, many of these people won’t be so lucky. These questionable deals are starting to hit the market and come to light. The units are not selling for as much as originally hoped or quickly enough. With highly-leveraged deals some funders having already started pulling the plug. My expectation is that these trends will continue big-time into 2019.

Therefore, my advice is to be careful who you listen to as many out there really do not have the necessary experience to get involved in what is a complex business. Property development can be very high-reward because it’s very high-risk.”

Paul Higgs @Paul_Higgs1 – Land, Planning & Development Expert at Millbank Land Academy and CEO at Millbank

CEO at Inspired Asset Management and Inspired Homes, Martin Skinner

“We expect 2019 to continue in the same vein as it is currently until Brexit is resolved. Whilst we remain confident the UK will agree a deal, as long as there is uncertainty, some buyers will postpone their purchase. Once a deal is struck, we expect confidence to return to the market, however, price growth will be moderate, linked to wage growth, as the market continues to be owner occupier rather than investor led.

2019 will most likely continue to be a buyer’s market and competition between developers will mean there are deals to be had such as solicitors fees paid and free furniture packs. For this reason, and with mortgage rates still very low, it’s actually a good time to buy if you’re an owner occupier.

If you’re a first-time buyer, you’ll also benefit from zero stamp duty on the first £300,000 of a purchase up to £500,000, meaning you’ll only need your 5% deposit to become a homeowner when using Help to Buy.”

Martin Skinner @MartinSkinner – CEO, Inspired Asset Management and Inspired Homes

Founder and Director at the TrustLand Directory & The Developers Boardroom, Alex Harrington-Griffin

“In terms of land and planning, there is no doubt that access to quality site opportunities around the South-East has was a struggle in 2018, as most vendors without motivation that had access to the outside world will know that if they’re looking for best returns, they won’t get it now. Therefore, I certainly expect a dramatic shift, as we pass through Brexit and banks tighten purse strings, that site acquisition strategy, and type, adapt dramatically for
forward-thinking and astute buyers.

More distressed site purchases, more developer-developer and landowner-developer Joint Ventures to mitigate risk and embrace transparency. I expect small and medium land buyers will be looking at areas of the market and site variations not previously considered, creating products that are somewhat out of their usual remit, or that break the mould in terms of design and style, to ensure that their product stands out and certain buyers will pay extra for
that unique product.

The widespread adoption of technology and mapping tools by both experienced and new developers to access land opportunities is growing rapidly, with buyers taking it upon themselves to contact owners. However, the smart ones will listen to vendor feedback in terms of the volume of contact, and start to consider innovative ways to help their brands and bids stand out, and hopefully use transparency and trust to win opportunities, through collateral and open book appraisals. The world is becoming more transparent, not less, and a lot of vendors are now wise to this and what they can find online.

Finally, I would expect we see a move by SME resi developers, in line with the monthly discussions held within Developers Boardroom, into areas such as build-to-rent, retirement, co-living, micro-flats and even industrial/commercial, as established teams look to utilise their skills and experience in emerging active sectors where a long-term potential, such as baby-boomer accommodation, and to be looking at longer-hold, cash flowing asset creation.

Alex Harrington-Griffin @Alex_H_Griffin – Founder of the TrustedLand Directory and Director at Developers Boardroom

Managing of the Property Developers Academy, Brynley Little

“2018 saw the market softening in many areas in the UK which triggered the acquisition phase for those experienced within the land and new build sector. This will firmly continue into 2019.

Uncertainty and a softening of the market has reinforced our focus of acquiring sites for both socially and locally affordable homes. Affordability is a growing issue in many areas and working with Local Planning Authorities to combat this issue could see great relationships built and great deals to be done.

Sites with high value properties continue to carry a large amount of risk in the current climate. They are becoming less desirable for experienced developers and funders alike. ‘Modular’ certainly seemed to be the buzzword in development in 2018, and I’m sure it will continue to be spoken about throughout 2019. Will 2019 see Modern Methods of Construction gather significant pace from a delivery point of view rather than the spoken word, I’m not so sure. There is still a way to go for modular homes to displace traditional methods in my opinion.

There are two growing trends to be aware of that I believe will open up opportunities and potentially bring focus to those looking to either start or scale their new build business in 2019; The Rise of the Millennials and the Coming of Age of the Baby-Boomers. These two demographics represent opportunities for increased rental demand, affordable homeownership and downsizing to more appropriate accommodation.

My recommendation for 2019, if you haven’t already, is to shift your focus to acquiring land and obtaining planning for deliverable schemes for both the rental and affordable for sale markets.”

Brynley Little – Managing Director of the Property Developers Academy and Co-Founder of Your Land Partner

Director of Real Estate Policy at the British Property Federation, Ian Fletcher

Senior Economist at the Construction Products Association, Rebecca Larkin

Noticeable variations in regional performance have emerged in the UK housing market over the last 12 months and this is a dynamic that is expected to go on into 2019. The strongest price growth is likely to continue in the North West, the Midlands and Yorkshire & Humber, whilst price falls in London ripple out to the neighbouring South East and East of England.

Regional price growth, the Help to Buy equity loan and a dearth of pre-owned properties on the market have led to an increased role for new build, which now accounts for 14% of property transactions. This has been further complemented by house builders’ offerings being accompanied by a wider variety of tenures such as shared ownership and Build to Rent in response to longstanding affordability issues.

Perhaps the biggest theme for the near-term outlook, though, centres around developments in the political and economic landscape, which are currently the great unknown for builders, purchasers, investors and forecasters alike. The last recession showed us that a significant slowdown in the wider economy will undoubtedly hit the housing market and new build activity harder. On this front, the labour market, interest rates and appetite for mortgage borrowing and lending will be the key determinants of how the housing market progresses.

Rebecca Larkin @CPA_Tweets – Senior Economist, Construction Products Association

“2019: The Year of the Consumer Renter

I get a sense that the Build to Rent sector is getting just a little bit more mature.  Those of us with genuine experience of institutional PRS, across a number of disciplines, are seeing a more considered approach to the development of schemes and a shying away of viability assessments based upon a premium above upper decile rents. Now, of course, we actually have real data to interrogate.  Mirroring the collaborative approach of the US Multi-Family operators, some of the UK operators actually share this information.  Some don’t. Old resi’ habits die hard.

In last year’s comment piece, I estimated that we could have close to 150,000 BTR units constructed, in planning or construction by the end of 2018.  According to the British Property Federation, at the end of Q3 we have close to 132,000.  Not bad going.  Given there’s Q4 still to report on, I guess we could end up with 140,000.  This demonstrates that not only have funds become comfortable with BTR, but actually desirous of it.

There’s little let up in the growth of potential investors either; Intu are reported to be considering repurposing the airspace above their retail portfolio (although sadly little understanding of the management paradigms seem to be evident) British Land are on the verge of creating a portfolio and we have seen Cortland enter the UK market with a £4bn war chest, aspirations to deliver 10,000 units, and the poaching  of Andrew Screen from TradeRisks.  So, from my perspective, Brexit or not, I expect 2019 to demonstrate stronger growth than 2018.

I would caution some new entrants against seeing BTR as simply a portfolio-balancing act. Watching institutions pour funds into new schemes might give prop-co’s the confidence to enter the market, but they need to take on board the learning that has been done in designing the asset for living and the quantum leap in management. It will not be enough unless the new thinking around quality, brand, customer service, environment, and wellness are employed and fully embraced. You can’t fake good BTR.

I’ve been a little disappointed in the rather prosaic nature of BTR marketing. Illustrated, perhaps, by not grasping the opportunity Black Friday or Cyber Monday offered. 2019 will see an acknowledgement that BTR is just another consumer product and we will see cross-market expertise from other industries drive innovative marketing and advertising.  That will mean much more scientific use of demographic and psychographic data in harness.

I suspect 2019 will also see a wobble in Third Party Management. My discussions with a number of investors have revealed a cultural shift away from TPM and a desire to self-manage.  This is going to create some difficulties and I would expect some high profile changes in management in the coming months and some creative JV structures between operational managers and investors.

Prop-tech hasn’t quite made the quantum leap I would have expected, except for one area: AI. In ‘general’ prop-tech (if there is such a thing) there’s been an awful lot of collaboration, much talking and some mild interventions in management. But AI is the game changer and we’re waiting to see who embraces it first. My feeling is that there will be some typical caution in implementation in 2019, and perhaps a little AI ‘light’ But I think it’ll be 2020 before we see anything really exciting. It’s always worth keeping an eye on Antony Slumbers for AI development. Data mining and interpretation from more operational schemes will become a priority. The data will be ‘richer’ and will highlight what renters really want and how it can be provided.

As last year, affordability is high on the agenda and rightly so. Whilst many planning authorities are BTR ambivalent, more, especially in London, are now looking for BTR to provide as many affordable units as OMS schemes. These will not just be DMR, as suggested in the NPPG, but will comprise a range of affordability levels. Our cousins across the pond are experiencing similar affordability issues. Last year, I posted a link to Harvard’s housing review that articulated concerns over affordability.  This year’s Harvard ‘State of the Nation’s Housing’ review can be found here. Figures show that 80% of renters in the US are ‘cost burdened’ and that the numbers of renters have fallen by 180,000 to 43.1m. There are two factors at play here: cheap finance has seen an uptick in home ownership and, more worrying,  younger cohorts are simply not forming new households. Many staying at home longer.

We see similar trends emerging in the UK.  There is a growing concern that HA’s are not fulfilling their social purpose. Tom Murtha has been critical of this. Gradually starved of grant, HA’s have become vigorous commercial entities. Whilst not intrinsically a bad thing, there is evidence that the commercial side of the HA brain has taken precedence over the social-purpose side.  However, I believe that this is now recognised and in 2019 and beyond I see HA’s taking the lead in developing major BTR schemes of blended tenure with a very strong emphasis on affordability and social-purpose.  2019 will also see a rise in flat sharing, driven by affordability, and for flat-sharing platforms to be embraced by some of the BTR operators. Ideal Flatmate is one such platform that I would expect to grow exponentially in 2019.

Yields: competitive, long horizon money has driven down yields across the country in 2018 with, no surprise, London sitting at around 4.75-5% gross or 3.5-3.75% net.  With 10y UK gilts at around 1.2% (at time of writing) Institutional money is still sitting on an acceptable margin. Factor in rental growth over time and the picture looks better still.  However, should we see interest rates rise, and Brexit could well be a factor here, yields will certainly soften.   In any event, I would now be advising an increasing of yield factor by 25-50bps.  Naturally, that would see a marginal fall in capital values.

Finally, BTR mustn’t lose sight of its key differentiator; peerless customer/user experience (CX/UX). There are some new players, Cortland for instance who understand this very well and will raise standards further.  So, if 2018 was the year of the BTR investor, 2019 will be the year of the BTR renter as consumer consciousness finally becomes wide-spread.

Richard Berridge @ResiRichard – MLH-Investments: Institutional Residential Investment Multi-Family & Build-to-Rent

Head of PRS and Build to Rent, David Bond

“With the ongoing demand for rental property, it was encouraging to see that during 2018 there was an increased focus on Build to Rent and institutional investment in the Private Rented Sector. This was acknowledged by the British Property Federation (BPF) who reported that the ever-increasing Build to Rent pipeline of units at the planning stage, or in construction, was in line to exceed 100,000 by the end of the year.

As we move into 2019, it is widely expected that these pipeline units will ‘hit the market’ and, with the support of institutional landlords, bring the much-needed stock to the sector and, it is hoped, satisfy the wide-ranging demands of tenants. As usual demand for apartments that are centrally located – with amenities close by – is likely to continue as is the need for single dwelling housing, perhaps near schools or local parks, for families. Added to this, however, there appears to be a growing acknowledgement that rental properties are needed for older tenants and those in the retirement sector.

A blurring of the lines between family housing – and later living – could, therefore, create a new interest in the rental sector for those semi or fully retired and who, to date, could see no transition between family housing and retirement/care living. The Centre for Ageing Better reported that, on the back of an English Housing Survey, a growing number of over 60s in the UK are renting and estimates that by 2040 a third of people aged over 60 could be living in private rental accommodation with demand for specialist retirement developments – with assured (lifetime) tenancies – potentially increasing.

For the institutional investors, therefore, it continues to be vital to understanding what tenants want – and where – and how they respond to this, whilst also, of course, considering what yields they may generate. The importance of developing strong relationships with national and regional house builders therefore remains and – even before a site is identified or planning application made – it’s crucial that an open dialogue between institutional investors and builders is maintained now and in the future.

Added to this, with the growth of institutional landlords, we are also seeing the wider use of deposit replacement schemes and PropTech playing a role in professional property management. The focus is on efficiency, performance and quality service to tenants with the ultimate aim being to help landlords retain them.

Housing has certainly been the focus of much debate during 2018 and appears to be firmly on the political agenda, but we must now wait and see what 2019 will bring and how, for the institutional landlord, and those people living in the Private Rented Sector, it directly affects them.”

David Bond @_PRSim – Head of PRS and Build to Rent at PRSim

“It seems highly likely that we will see a further softening of London house prices in the short term prior to the finalisation of any Brexit arrangement. The next two years could be challenging for London but experts believe that 2020 will see the cycle turn. Many have written off London as a ‘busted flush’ in times gone by only to see the market bounce back to take centre stage. Do not fall into that trap!

The South of England, especially the South-East, will likely broadly follow the same path as London house prices in the short term. It is easy to forget these are areas of the country, the South-East in particular, which have significantly outperformed the rest of the UK (excluding London) over the last decade. Property investment is a long-term activity and while short-term fluctuations do obviously impact investor sentiment, the long-term trend is still your friend.

Infrastructure investment has also brought the Midlands and the North of England into play. The risk/reward factors compared to London are much more attractive and there is a feeling that investor sentiment is changing. However, once the dust settles on Brexit it would be foolish to dismiss a recovery in London prices in the medium to long-term.”

Julie Hanson @JustDoProperty – Director at Just Do Property

Editor at Letting Agent Today and Estate Agent Today, Graham Norwood

“Buy-to-let is clearly more challenging now than at any time during its history – but that in itself is not a reason for avoiding it.

It sounds like a cliché but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true – choose locations where jobs and transport are still strong, go for secondary locations where capital values are reasonable and so rental yields will be good; and make the investment for 10 or 15 years so you have a chance of reasonable capital appreciation.

Furnish, equip and maintain your buy-to-lets well, and ensure it’s managed by a strong letting agent, because Build To Rent is coming to a location near you soon, and you need to compete with it.”

Graham Norwood @PropertyJourn – Editor at Letting Agent Today and Estate Agent Today

Founder at The Property Voice, Richard W J Brown

“Last year I spoke about the uncertainty that surrounds Brexit having a potential drag on the residential housing market. It feels like Groundhog Day as Brexit uncertainty remains, perhaps even more so! The upshot of this is that many people have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens, which has slowed down transaction volumes. That said, there will always be people that need to move for whatever reason, so there will be some transactions, just not as many as we need to have a vibrant housing market. However, the lower transaction level has helped to keep prices stable, especially in London and the south-east, which may have dipped further if more people had to move.

From an investor point of view, Section 24 will continue to take a bite out of rental profits as the tax reduction phasing continues. Equally, additional legislation, such as the removal of the three storey criteria for larger HMOs continues to send ripples through the sector. Defensive strategies, such as company BTL purchases will continue to grow, just as they have done this year already. However, whilst the headline mortgage market seems healthy enough, this is perhaps misleading when considering how may loans are for remortgage rather than new loans. This all suggests a fairly stagnant BTL sector for the immediate future, which may slip into the red with a cliff-edge no-deal Brexit causing a lack of confidence generally.

Brexit aside, the increased professionalisation of the PRS will continue, with larger landlords and build-to-rent players dominating the growth in the sector for new rental properties. Accidental landlords will probably look to exit if their cash flow turns negative and the sector will probably continue to split into a two-speed market, with smaller ‘BTL is my pension’ investors remaining, along with the larger & professional landlords, but with some of the middle-classes potentially seeking simpler, more tax-efficient investment returns elsewhere. So, overall, I see a sluggish market with some consolidation and segmentation, as the uncertainty, continual change and cloudy political-economic situation remaining. As always though, there are opportunities for the astute or entrepreneurial investor that can adapt to the climate to capitalise, which is where I aim to be myself.”

Richard W J Brown a.k.a The Property Voice @PropertyVoiceUK | Listen to the podcast here

PropTech Influencer and Global Speaker, James Dearsley

“The property market is starting to understand that it is going through a period of intense change. The traditional view that we are a relationship-driven marketplace is beginning to warp into the view that we are becoming a tech-enabled industry and one that is on the start of a process known as digital transformation. As a consequence, we have seen an almost ubiquitous use of the term PropTech in the past few years which is the symptom of this change.

In 2019, I expect to see the real estate industry struggle with this new industry as it looks for ways to become more streamlined, efficient and customer focussed whilst trying to retain its traditional format. We have seen huge case studies of failure of so-called PropTech businesses, many of whom featured in last years predictions for 2018 in fact, but this should dissuade traditional businesses from understanding the changes being demanded by the consumer. We are all looking for better processes, improved systems, more cost-effective workflows and ultimately to see an industry transition to one that works for everyone.

There will be more failures in 2019 as the 6,000+ PropTech businesses around the world continue to find their place in an industry that is rigid and slow moving but there will be many more successes as businesses start to understand different business models, and start to evolve. One key element of this is for the industry to be welcoming of new models, work with them to understand what they are trying to do differently and come to a happy medium that means both work. Collaboration and consolidation will be a key outcome in 2019 and some will end the year key winners as digital transformation takes hold.”

James Dearsley @JamesDearsley – PropTech Influence, Global Speaker and Co-Founder of Unissu, a global PropTech search portal

“Writing last year we forecast slowing house price growth and rising uncertainty and both have been delivered!

Indeed based upon the Acadata index we now have falling real house prices alongside small nominal gains. Acadata does not produce a formal forecast and indeed this year it is possible others who regularly produce such metrics will choose not to do so given the extreme uncertainty that now exists with respect to 2019.

It is hard to see anything other than a continuing slow down in the market for both 2019 and perhaps a flattening in 2020. There will always be those who have to move alongside others that chose to move, given their personal circumstances and preferences. We would expect transactions to remain roughly the same.

The Bank of England has rightly set out possible housing market effects flowing from different Brexit related outcomes and their impact on the macro-economy. Clearly they were hugely assumption driven and no one was suggesting that is what will happen. The events surrounding this first half of December have added to the scale of uncertainty for both the market as a whole and individuals.

For the most part the UK housing market is a domestic market driven by UK consumers and providers. In a slowing or static market we will have intensified competition for mortgage lending. The mortgage market is dominated by 4 main lenders (some 70% of supply) while around 120 lenders competing intensely for 10/15% of the market. This should ensure borrowers are well provided for.

The government has also extended the Help to Buy scheme so one policy uncertainty has been removed and we know supply remains a dominant priority. The rebalancing between buy-to-let and home ownership is continuing with the former market contracting in terms of new purchases and some consolidation taking place.

Just as in the global financial crisis, the market continues and this will be true of Brexit regardless of the outcome. Given the transitions that might apply, effects would roll through the market 2021 onwards. We have to wait to see when the position gets somewhat clearer. It has been suggested that there will be strong regional effects and these will be layered on a strongly regionally differentiated housing market. That could have longer term implications for mobility between regions. The reality is we simply don’t know at this stage.

Acadata will continue to track events and offer monthly commentary and more. Onwards to 2019!”

Peter Williams – Chairman, Acadata

Chief Executive at the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), Mark Hayward

“As we look ahead to 2019, there’s a fog of uncertainty. Brexit is undoubtedly fuelling a sense of apprehension in the housing market, which in turn affects sentiment. With details of the final deal still unknown, both buyers and sellers will continue to hold off on making any decisions.

However, this slowdown presents a window of opportunity for first-time buyers who will find more affordable properties, granting them greater bargaining power.

We usually see demand spike in the first few months of the year, but the landscape will probably be very different in 2019 as buyers sit on the fence and adopt a ‘wait and see’ strategy until the Brexit deal is complete.”

Mark Hayward @NAEA_UK – Chief Executive, National Association of Estate Agents

Head of Policy at the National Landlords Association (NLA), Chris Norris

“Brexit will ultimately play a part in any investment in 2019, and the uncertainty around the rights of EU citizens living in the UK will be the cause of concern for some landlords due to Right to Rent.

However, Brexit is not the only concern landlords will have. There will be a continuation of the same issues landlords have faced over the last year. Landlords still have to contend with the removal of mortgage interest relief and changes to letting agents’ business models once the Tenant Fees Bill is passed into law. The Homes (Fitness for Human Habitation) Bill won’t have a noticeable effect on the majority of landlords, but will make a difference to the rest.

Not to mention the fact that bookmakers are currently offering odds on a general election in 2019 11/10 – so a new, and potentially radically different government will be preying on some landlords’ minds.

That being said, rental property is still a worthwhile investment and we expect new landlords to continue entering the market in 2019.”

Chris Norris @NationaLandlord – Head of Policy, National Landlords Association (NLA)

Chairman at the Residential Landlords Association, Alan Ward

“We have already seen a lot of change in the sector and this is set to continue, with the tenants’ fee ban, the next raft of mortgage interest relief cuts, not to mention Brexit, all set to impact on landlords next year.

Our research arm PEARL found landlord sentiment to the sector and investments is deteriorating and work carried out earlier this year estimated that on top of the 46,000 privately rented homes that have already been lost (MHCLG, 2018), there will be a further net loss of 133,000 homes to rent by July 2019.

In all 62% of landlords reported profitability would be reduced by at least 20%; and 67% said they would minimise investment due to the government tax changes.

The tenants’ fees bill is also expected to have a substantial impact.  More than a third of landlords – 35% – have told us they plan to self-manage as a result of the fees ban, with the expectation that charges traditionally paid by tenants will now be passed on to landlords.

With more and more rental homes needed and increasing numbers of families and older people looking to the sector for a home, we feel the government needs to do more to encourage landlords to invest.”

Alan Ward @RLA_News – Chairman, Residential Landlords Association

Chief Executive at the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA), David Cox

“The PRS has undergone a tsunami of change over the last few years, and there are difficult times ahead with the tenant fees ban is expected to come into effect next year. With all the new legislation landlords have faced over the last few years, they have found themselves either being pushed out of the market or forced to pass rising costs on to tenants – a trend which we’ll continue to see next year.

However, looking further ahead we firmly believe that the industry will come out stronger, more professional and better respected at the other side. The best landlords and agents will adapt and survive to the new circumstances, keeping the PRS afloat”

David Cox @ARLA_UK – Chief Executive, Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA)

Chief Executive of Optivo and Chair of the G15