This first appeared as part of my paper on Pakistan, summary in Swarajya in 2016
Pakistan will soon be one of the most water
stressed nations in the world - due to high population growth and inadequate
water management. Current per capita availability at 1000 Cu meters, makes
Pakistan highly water stressed and at the same level as Ethiopia. Even the rumour
that India might review the Indus water treaty, or the incorrect and misguided
view that India is `stealing Pakistan’s water’, causes anxiety among all
sections of Pakistani society.
Pakistan’s water vulnerability is not being
exploited by India. It does not require India to abrogate the Indus Water
treaty (IWT), but needs to mostly do what is allowed under the IWT and in our
national interest. What is also overlooked is exploitation of Afghan river
water by Pakistan. The following steps by India can greatly exacerbate
Pakistan’s water crisis and we believe that long before they do, India can use
the resulting anxiety in Pakistan to secure real concessions. While a detailed
study of the IWT is beyond the scope of this paper and has been discussed in
numerous fora, it would suffice to say that under the IWT, India has exclusive
use of the 3 `Eastern’ rivers of the Indus system (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) while
Pakistan has use of the 3 `Western’ rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab). However,
India is permitted to build dams and use water for irrigation and domestic use
(within limits) on the Western
rivers.
Because the use of Indus water and India’s alleged role in `stealing’ that water is so emotive in Pakistan, any Indian action, however correct and in the interests of India, will be commented in in the media. Rather than be defensive, India, while undertaking the actions we propose, should have the following narrative to explain its actions:
- The IWT gave Pakistan over 80% of Indus water and India (despite being the upper riparian state) under 20%.
- India has never made full use of the waters of the 3 rivers it is entitled to use.
-
India has not exploited the
power and irrigation potential of the 3 western rivers, as it is allowed to and
in the process has caused economic hardship to the people of J&K, incl.
POK, (to whom the state of J&K would be willing to sell its surplus power).
What India can do:
- Fully exploit the hydel and irrigation potential of the Western rivers.
- Maximise use of the waters of the Eastern rivers and deny them to Pakistan.
-
Help Afghanistan protect its
water resources and deny them to Pakistan.
1.
Western Rivers: Pakistan’s policy has been to appeal against every Indian
hydroelectric project in Kashmir in an effort to stall development. The latest
arbitration award, which went in India’s favor (allowing us to construct the
Kishenganga project on the Jhelum) should be used as a template for India to construct all other planned
dams on the Western rivers. These have
not been given adequate attention. The Kishenganga dam completed in 2018, just before Pakistan’s ambitious Neelam dam
project only because of the inefficiency and funding gaps that have plagued
Pakistan’s project.
Fully utilising the potential
of the Chenab and Jhelum (as allowed by the treaty) will have
the
following advantages:
- Kashmir becomes self-sufficient in power, It is ironic that a state
which gives rise to India’s great rivers and has enormous hydroelectric
potential, should be power starved. Of the estimated 20,000 MW of power potential that can be developed in
J&K (some estimates put it higher)
barely 6000 MW has been developed and the state has to either import power or face a
shortfall. Simply completing all the projects that have been announced will make J&K a
power surplus state. It can offer to export power to its fellow Kashmiris facing an
acute power shortage in
POK and where the Neelam project will probably supply power at a far higher cost than India can (the cost per MW of this
project is already estimated to be double of India’s Kishanganga project). This
will have huge PR value, even if little power is actually supplied. While the full use
of the western river water by India will reduce Pakistan’s availability of water by under 3%,
it can lead to a reduction of power potential by as much as 15% for power
projects planned by Pakistan, rendering many unviable even before they are completed.
With power shortfall in Pakistan already touching 30% any further gap will cause severe
damage to the economy
- only remedied by buying expensive power from India
(the supply being dependent on Pakistan’s good behavior).
million acres in India
to be irrigated from the western rivers, only 0.79 million acres have
been irrigated (as of 2010).
- The IWT provides for water from
the western rivers to be used for domestic purposes. With Jammu facing an acute water shortage, the Chenab drinking water project
needs to be
expedited and further such projects completed to meet the needs of
J&K.
- India is entitled to store over 30
days of water supply from the Jhelum and Chenab rivers,
which is similar to Pakistan’s current storage capacity. It
gives India enormous scope to
either withhold
water during the planting season, or during drought, or release water
during floods, both of which can cause
more damage to Pakistan than a conventional war.
Water
storage on the Jhelum can be done along with completing the Tulbul barrage,
which was stopped
in 1987 at Pakistan’s request, which makes the Jhelum navigable (north
from Srinagar) all year round and threatens Pakistan’s Neelam valley with flooding if, for e.g.
it
continues to be used as an infiltration route.
A
significant obstacle to cleaning the Ganga (a national priority for decades) has
been the presence of highly polluting leather tanneries discharging effluents
into the Ganga.
A leather) SEZ cluster could be set up in Akhnoor (at the
Chenab River just before it enters Pakistan), relocating some units from Kanpur, where
effluent treatment / NOC from the pollution control board, (greatly increasing
costs) is done away with. It
would lower the cost of production (hitting Pakistani exports) and creating
jobs in a sensitive border area.
A similar initiative can be done w.r.t
setting up paper mills in Kashmir (close to where the Jhelum
flows into Pakistan Jhelum) which will take advantage of abundant
raw material in the local area and provide much needed jobs to people in militant
hit areas of Sopore and Baramulla. Paper
mills can use the excess power available after completing the hydel projects on the
western rivers.
A turnaround in the power
situation, with improved irrigation and flood control and more
jobs generated will be viewed
as a game changer by the people of Kashmir.
2. Eastern rivers: Though India is allowed to fully exploit these
rivers, this is not being done
to the extent possible and we
suggest the following:
- In 2012, Shri Narendra Modi, as
the then CM of Gujarat, asked for the Indira Gandhi canal, ending in South
Rajasthan, to be extended to Kutch. This can be made part of the river interlinking project and constructed as part of an ambitious MGNREGA program.
Extending the canal will not only transform the fortunes of Kutch (the canal
can also be extended to the Sabarmati, linking it by extension to the Narmada, which is part of the river linking plan announced by the govt) but ensure that a negligible amount of water from the Sutlej and
Beas flows into Pakistan. Quite possibly,
even the announcement that the canal will be extended will cause concertation in
Pakistan and get them to negotiate seriously.
how it would impact
the overall availability of water in India and Pakistan. Completing the canal will ensure that the Sutlej will be bone dry, even when water from melting snow
increases water flow, by the time it reaches Pakistan.
the river flows into Pakistan. All the water after that headwork is
allowed to flow into Pakistan.
One way to divert that water is to increase the
capacity of the canal taking Ravi water from the
headwork to the Beas river at Mukerian. The Beas
drains into the Harike barrage which supplies
the Rajasthan canal and the extra water
flowing into the canal is what can be used
when the Indira
Gandhi canal is extended into Kutch. The catchment downstream from Madhopur can also use
Ravi water by
constructing a new canal (similar to Pakistan’s Ichhogil canal) to give Punjab
additional irrigation facilities.
Leakages from the
existing badly maintained barrage on the Ravi results in unintended flow
of water into
Pakistan.
Although the waters from the eastern rivers account for under 5% of Pakistan’s supply from the Indus, sharply reducing water availability of these 3 eastern rivers would exacerbate not only tensions between Punjab and Sindh on water sharing (which are already acute) but also between north and south Punjab province of Pakistan.
3. The Kabul river. 16% of the water Pakistan gets from the Indus system comes from the Kabul river, which rises in Afghanistan. Its most important tributary is the Swat river. There is no water sharing treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan which has suited Pakistan, as it freely gets water from Afghan rivers. The continued civil war and lack of resources in Afghanistan have made it unable to properly exploit its water resources. It uses only 30% of its river water and has one of the lowest water storage capacities in the world.
India has taken the lead to develop water resources along the Kabul
river. The completion of
the Salma dam by India on the Hari
river, is a template for further cooperation. There are 12
projects along the Kabul river
identified for completion with World Bank assistance and
Pakistan’s own estimate is that it
will lose 16-17% of water it is getting from Afghanistan when these projects are complete. The
extent of Indian participation has not been confirmed, but it is in India’s interest to not
only participate in these projects but also influence Afghanistan’s thinking in any
Afghan-Pakistan water agreement that Pakistan will be increasingly compelled to push for.
(Talks failed in 2003 & 2009).
Taking these measures along the western & eastern Indus and along the Kabul river can reduce the availability of water to Pakistan by an estimated 6-9% However, since river water availability varies significantly during the year, with Pakistan’s storage capacity being less than 30 days, this shortfall would be much higher in winter and can significantly damage the rabi crop, which receives only 16% of the total Indus flow (the kharif crop gets 84%). The additional power shortfall would also be higher than the water shortfall. This in an already badly water and power stressed country.
Map showing the rivers of the Indus Basin. The Kabul river rises in Afghanistan and drains into the Indus
Should India abrogate the IWT ?
There is a lot of ill-informed speculation in the Media on this point. As we have shown there is a lot that can be much before we consider abrogating the treaty. Simply announcing that we are abrogating the treaty does not help for the following reasons:
-We cannot practically derive any benefit
from it for years, as we lack the capacity to divert the
Western rivers or store sufficient
water, for several years, (during which our resources should be used to get
what we are entitled to under the IWT, from the Eastern rivers).
- We also lose the moral high ground by
walking out of an International treaty though a strong case can be made for us
to legally do so.
- It would be perceived to give China more reason to divert waters of the
Brahmaputra (though their decision will be governed purely by self-interest and
not an India-Pak water war)
Instead India should do the following:
- Complete the projects on the Western and Eastern rivers on a war footing.
- Suspend talks of the IWT Panel and do not confirm or deny abrogating the treaty in future.
- Complete the Tulbul barrage and storage
on the Jhelum, which can bring immediate economic
benefits to Kashmir and pressurise
Pakistan through untimely release of water.
- Increase the pace of dam building in Afghanistan and broker a water sharing
deal between
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- Start work on the feasibility of linking the Chenab (Western River) and Beas
which at their
closest, are separated by just 30 km.
Linking these rivers (with the creation of run of the river
dams and some storage capacity, allowed
under IWT) will give adequate water to the Sutlej-
Yamuna canal and the Rajasthan canal,
when extended upto Kutch. Securing this should be
India’s objective in a renegotiated
IWT.
India’s position both diplomatically and internally should be that India has stuck to what is possibly the most unequal water sharing treaty in the world (affecting as many Indians as Pakistanis) as a gesture of good neighbourliness. India will pursue whatever it is entitled to under the treaty, including work on the Western rivers.
Like Pakistan, India too wishes to renegotiate the treaty, to reduce the current imbalance and seek (approx.) a 25% share of Indus water, instead of the current 20% (by linking the Chenab and Beas) which will ensure a less unequal distribution of resources and create a stronger treaty and therefore more lasting peace etc. The biggest gainers would be the people of Kashmir whose interests Pakistan claims to represent.
