With one game left in Week 6, nine NFL teams are sitting at 3-3. Four of those teams—the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Jets—rank 12th or below in expected points added on both Offense and defense. So, if it feels like this has been a remarkably mediocre football season, it’s not just you. The football has largely been mid.

And that has created a glut of teams smack dab in the middle of the standings. Based on the law of averages, we should expect half of these teams to turn it on over the next three months and make a run at the playoffs, while the other half will likely tail off and end up with a top-15 draft pick. As we inch closer to the midway point of the regular season, let’s take a deeper look at the NFL’s middle class and figure out which direction these teams are headed.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams went into halftime against the Cardinals with just 5 rushing yards and six points. By the end of the 26-9 win, the rushing total had jumped to 179 yards and Sean McVay’s team had climbed back to an even 3-3 record. It’s not the best start of McVay’s head-coaching career, but it might be the happiest. The dude was beaming after Sunday’s win, and I’m assuming a big part of that was because of the balance his offense has found over the past few weeks.

Every facet of the Rams offense is humming along nicely, but let’s focus on the running game, where Kyren Williams has emerged as the team’s lead back. The 2022 fifth-round pick ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards this season after adding 158 to his season total on Sunday. A lot of those yards came on perimeter runs, and those were available because of a key schematic tweak McVay made at halftime. The Rams coach put his receivers and tight ends on the move before the snap and sent them directly at the point of attack:

It’s a tactic we’ve seen McVay’s buddy Kyle Shanahan repeatedly use over the past few years—one that’s been incredibly effective against the Rams in particular—and it’s provided L.A. with a similar jolt. The Rams’ runs are hitting outside more than ever, which has increased the team’s explosive run rate and overall efficiency.

This is around the time when L.A.’s offense fell apart a season ago. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp went down with injuries, the team couldn’t run the ball, and the season was all but over by Thanksgiving. This year, L.A. is trending the opposite way. Kupp and Stafford look healthy, Puka Nacua is emerging as a second star wideout, the offensive line is playing good ball, and McVay has crafted a truly balanced offense for the first time in years. Just look at the splits between the team’s run and pass games from both under center and in the shotgun.

It’s all working. The Rams defense has been more hit or miss—it ranks 22nd in EPA/play allowed, according to RBSDM.com—but the improvements on the other side of the ball should keep this young team in the playoff race for the remainder of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Don’t look now, but following Sunday’s 17-13 victory over the Seahawks, the Bengals have won three of their past four and Joe Burrow is starting to do stuff like this:

Burrow, who’s been trying to shake a nagging calf injury since early in training camp, got up over 18 mph on that scramble, according to Next Gen Stats’s tracking data. That’s a sign that his calf is getting healthier, and thanks to another valiant effort by Lou Anarumo’s defense, Cincinnati is still within a game of first place in the AFC North. It’s starting to feel like the Bengals are back.

If you want to hold on to that optimism, just skip ahead to the next team right now. Oh, and don’t look at Sunday’s box score, this week’s film, or really any season-long stats—whether they’re counting stats or rate stats. While it ultimately ended in a W, the Seahawks game may have been the most concerning performance yet for the Bengals offense. The offense averaged minus-0.05 expected points added per play. Burrow averaged 4.4 yards per dropback—despite looking at his best physically for the first time this season—and the run game managed just 46 yards on 15 carries. After two early touchdown drives, the Bengals couldn’t do much of anything.

While I’m usually quick to blame Zac Taylor whenever this highly-powered offense stalls out, Sunday’s ugly performance falls more on Burrow. While he made more plays with his legs, he didn’t throw the ball well. There were several misplaced passes leading to incompletions, he didn’t let plays develop nearly enough—too eager to check the ball down—and he kept Seattle in the game with a poorly thrown interception.

Fortunately for Cincinnati, Anarumo pitched a near-perfect game against a red-hot Geno Smith. The Seahawks quarterback completed 66 percent of his passes, but his expected completion percentage—which is based on pressure, depth of throw, and receiver separation—was just 58.1 percent, per Next Gen Stats. The game was decided by the throws Smith couldn’t get off. Anarumo tossed some nice changeups at Geno and got him to hold the ball long enough for the pass rush to get home. In Geno’s defense, he did not have a lot of options downfield:

Anarumo’s defense is coming up big in high-leverage situations, and Burrow is getting healthier. But the vibes are still off, and with a tough schedule ahead, Cincinnati could rapidly fall behind the top teams in the conference.

New York Jets

Speaking of vibes, I don’t think we can realistically expect them to be better than they are in New York right now after the Jets knocked off the NFL’s last unbeaten team with a 20-14 win over the Eagles. The Jets have now won two in a row, Zach Wilson isn’t throwing games away, and the defense, in Robert Saleh’s words, has embarrassed every top quarterback it’s faced this season. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is walking without crutches and was throwing a football on the sideline before Sunday’s game.

Things seem good, but we’ve been here before. If we rewind to this time last season, New York’s outlook was even brighter. Through six weeks, the team was sitting at 4-2 after reeling off three consecutive wins, the offense had scored at least 24 points in every victory, and even Wilson was playing better football:

I know it feels like the Jets have made serious progress this season, but the numbers suggest they’re worse off through the first month and a half. The offense, which ranked 22nd in EPA per play after six weeks in 2022, ranks 28th this season. And the defense ranked in the top 10 last season and is sitting just outside it through the first six weeks of 2023, according to TruMedia.

Given how last season ended and everything that went on during the offseason, it’s easy to forget how good this team looked last October before Breece Hall suffered an ACL injury and the house of cards came crashing down. We’re looking at a similarly delicate build once again.

Washington Commanders

It’s time we give credit where it’s due: Sam Howell is on pace for a historic season and I don’t think we’re talking about it nearly enough. After taking another five sacks in Washington’s ugly 24-16 win in Atlanta, Howell is now on pace to take 96 sacks this season.

NINETY. SIX. SACKS.

The NFL single-season record, set by David Carr with the expansion Texans in 2002, is 76, so Howell is on track to clear it by 20 sacks. It’s easy to read those numbers and assume Washington’s offensive line is historically bad, but that’s not the case. The Commanders’ pass protection has been pretty good, which makes Howell’s prolific sack-taking abilities even more impressive. Washington is allowing quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Howell’s pressure rate is the ninth-highest in the league, but he’s holding on to the ball for an eternity—averaging 3.03 seconds per attempt on non-RPO dropbacks—which inflates those numbers.

PFF blames Howell for 13 of his 34 sacks this season. That leads the league, with Justin Fields second at seven. Sometimes we give quarterbacks a little too much credit for the performance of an offense—I’m looking in the direction of San Francisco for no reason in particular—but this has been a truly transcendent performance for the Commanders quarterback. Look at this guy work:

If Carr was the Jordan of taking sacks, Howell is this generation’s LeBron. A true artist.

But seriously, Howell solving his sack problem will be the key for this team going forward. It will determine whether Washington, which owns the NFC’s fifth-worst point differential, has a chance at challenging for a wild-card spot this season—and it will also determine Howell’s long-term outlook as the starter for this team.

Houston Texans

It’s time to learn the name Bobby Slowik. I know there are a bunch of new, exciting things to celebrate in Houston right now—C.J. Stroud looks like QB1, DeMeco Ryans is doing DeMeco Ryans things with the defense, and the trade-up to draft Will Anderson looks like a winning bet—but the first-year offensive coordinator belongs at the top of the list.

Even after Sunday’s uneven performance in a 20-13 win, the Texans offense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per snap thanks to Slowik, who’s running his own version of Kyle Shanahan’s system. And that scheme is doing the same things for Stroud that it’s done for Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy in San Francisco and Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. When you look at screen passes, bootlegs, and “in rhythm” throws—so passes that are more schemed up—only three quarterbacks were averaging over 9 yards per attempt coming into Week 6: Purdy, Tagovailoa, and Stroud.

The Texans don’t have the star power of those other offenses, but Slowik is still making do. Stroud has done his part too. He’s been a top-10 quarterback by dropback EPA, and he’s made far more plays under pressure than anyone reasonably expected of the rookie. But Slowik is providing the QB with open targets, and he’s built a run game that is just good enough to keep Stroud out of obvious passing situations.

The Texans are probably a year—and a needle-moving skill player—away from challenging the Jaguars for the AFC South title, but this team is way ahead of schedule. If this keeps up, and Slowik gets appropriate credit for the job he’s doing with a young offense, Houston may need to find a replacement for him next offseason.

Las Vegas Raiders

You’re not going to believe this, but Jimmy Garoppolo is going to miss some time. The Raiders quarterback left Sunday’s 21-17 win over the Patriots at halftime with a back injury. He went to the hospital to get checked out, and while it looks like Garoppolo thankfully avoided a more severe injury, we will probably see Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer in the starting lineup next week.

The Raiders rank 24th in offensive EPA and 30th in defensive EPA, per RBSDM.com, so this offense is probably going to fall apart whether Jimmy G is out there or not. But there will be some long-term ramifications if he has trouble staying on the field. After restructuring his contract in early September, Las Vegas is locked into the Jimmy G experience for at least one more season. And the Raiders would be stuck with a $15 million cap hit if they tried to move on, which I’m not sure owner Mark Davis would be willing to just accept.

But this partnership may not extend beyond that if injuries keep piling up. And while it may be too early to call the Jimmy G experiment a failed one—especially with the Raiders sitting at 3-3—it’s off to a rough start.

Indianapolis Colts

Look on the bright side, Colts fans: At least you don’t have to sit through another week of absurd questions about whether Gardner Minshew or Anthony Richardson runs the offense better. Minshew ended that talk with a hat trick of interceptions against his former team in a 37-20 loss in Jacksonville while Richardson watched from the sideline with his throwing arm in a sling.

Nothing worked for Indy’s offense on Sunday. Not even Jonathan Taylor’s presence in the backfield made a difference for a unit that can’t create explosive plays. Getting Richardson back from a shoulder sprain in a few weeks should help. The rookie quarterback has a big arm and has not been afraid to put it to work when he’s been on the field. He’s already made several big-time throws to the deeper parts of the field in the limited action he’s seen while dealing with a concussion and the shoulder injury.

Getting Richardson in the backfield with Taylor should also boost a running game that ranks 25th in EPA per attempt after six weeks, per RBSDM.com. But it might be too little, too late. The Colts are only a game back in the AFC South, but the Jaguars have already swept them and their minus-12 point differential suggests that regression is coming for the team.

Atlanta Falcons

After an inexcusable home loss to a bad Commanders team, it’s getting harder to defend Arthur Smith. But I will try anyway. The Falcons offense has been a dud thus far, but a lot of that falls on the young players who serve as the foundation for the unit. Desmond Ridder, who threw two picks in Sunday’s loss, is at the top of that list—even if it’s unfair to pin the interceptions entirely on him. If Atlanta had a quarterback who could hit open throws consistently and didn’t throw the ball directly to the other team, we’d be having a different conversation about Smith right now.

Instead, Smith’s usage of Atlanta’s promising group of skill players—led by Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson—has been in the spotlight thanks primarily to disgruntled fantasy football managers who aren’t happy with those guys’ counting stats. Now that Pitts is getting involved in the passing game, the focus has shifted from the tight end’s lack of targets to Robinson’s lack of rushing attempts.

It’s true: Smith has somewhat limited the top-10 pick’s opportunities in the running game, but he’s feeding his young back plenty. Robinson ranks ninth in the NFL with 106 touches—rushing attempts plus pass targets—and his 590 scrimmage yards rank seventh. Not bad for a rookie who’s just a month and a half into the season.

As much as it upsets fantasy players, this is an intelligent approach to managing Robinson’s workload. Smith is leaving the physically demanding runs to Tyler Allgeier while giving Robinson more opportunities to get in space, where he can avoid the kind of hits that put tread on the tires. Atlanta isn’t going anywhere with its current quarterback situation—who could have possibly seen this coming—so just getting Robinson to the offseason with some solid production should be the priority. Smith is doing that while protecting his star rookie in the process.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are probably the best team in the NFC South, so maybe they deserve more attention than I’m about to give them, but I refuse to take a team quarterbacked by Derek Carr seriously as long as he continues to do stuff like this:

This is who Carr has always been.

He can’t help himself.

If the Saints expected something different, that’s on them.