We’re a little more than a month into the NBA season, which means we finally have a fun sample of games from this year’s rookies to discuss and break down.

Approximately once a month, I’ll plan on taking a deep dive into the rookie class and analyzing the players in the only way writers know how: with rankings. This is a ranking of the most effective rookies thus far in the NBA. It will be a full-season ranking, not a power ranking.

As usual, there will be a table, followed by thoughts on a few players who have stood out in some way, shape or form. As it stands, I would say there are four clear tiers: The top-two players listed are in the first, a second tier with Nos. 3 and 4, Nos. 5 through 12 are all pretty close in the third tier and Nos. 13 through 17 conclude the fourth tier, with the Nuggets’ Christian Braun and the Grizzlies’ Jake LaRavia just missing the cut. Without further ado, here is where I’d rate the rookies after the first month and some change:

Paolo Banchero — No. 1

Assuming Paolo Banchero gets healthy soon after missing Orlando’s past seven games with an ankle injury, there is a genuine All-Star conversation to be had right now about him, something that rarely happens for first-year players. I can’t quite get there because I don’t necessarily know how much of his game is translating to winning basketball — he just turned 20, so you wouldn’t expect it to — but the conversation is reasonable, and he’s been the most impressive rookie of this season by a healthy amount due to his shot-creation gifts.

Banchero is a credible top-two option on an NBA team right now, which is ridiculous to say about a rookie. We’re obviously in an up-tempo era of basketball, so Banchero’s 23.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game are probably a touch inflated when comparing him to historical precedents. But even if you reduce those numbers to 20 points and seven rebounds per game, the number of rookies who have done that over a full season is quite limited to All-NBA or Hall of Fame quality. Since 1985, the only players to average 20 points and seven rebounds per game as a rookie are Luka Dončić, Joel Embiid, Blake Griffin, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Alonzo Mourning, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon, per Stathead. When the baseline for a player’s future based on their current production is All-NBA, you know something is going right.

Banchero’s blend of size, strength and skill makes him an exceedingly rare entity. Guys who are 6-foot-10 typically can’t handle the ball the way he does. Most of the time, it’s because of balance and inability to decelerate. Bigger guys who have longer limbs and carry more weight tend to have a harder time slowing that momentum down. It’s also typically harder for guys like this to bend. Banchero has zero issues on any of these fronts, and it’s not just a comfort-level thing. The creativity and polish Banchero has as a ballhandler are going to quickly make him a nearly impossible problem for defenses to solve in the coming years. His level of shake is uncommon, and you see it in some of the nasty inside-out dribbles or between-the-legs crossovers he’ll hit guys with while keeping the ball low to the ground.

Watch this one against Eric Gordon. Gordon has long been a player who does well sliding up and defending bigger guys because he uses his low center gravity and arm length to simultaneously contest and keep bigger guys from taking him down onto the block. Here, Banchero just wrecks him and doesn’t even need to use his size. It’s filthy and showcases why he’s such a technically impressive ballhandler.

Born and raised in the Seattle area, Banchero at times looks like if you took Jamal Crawford, incorporated many of his nasty set-up moves and crossovers and placed them into a center-sized frame. Beyond that, Banchero’s ability to get defenders off-balance and bully his way through contact allows him to live at the foul line. He’s taking 8.3 free throws per game so far. The eight free-throw attempts per game as a rookie club is an exclusive one, largely reserved again for Hall of Famers. Since 1965, it’s Banchero (so far), Michael Jordan, Griffin, Shaq, Robinson, Mourning, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Elvin Hayes and Rick Barry. On top of all this, his passing and playmaking for others is extremely high-level for a big and allows him to play point guard at times for Orlando.

Having said that, two things are stopping Banchero from immediate All-Star status for me. First, it’s the intersection of his shot distribution and selection with his shooting skill right now. Banchero is a good shooter, and I think long term we’re going to see him develop into a really good one. But he’s just slightly off there right now. He lives in the midrange, something that isn’t necessarily bad for a primary shot creator. The problem is that he’s missing. He’s taken 41 midrange jumpers in the half court (four per game) and made just 13 of them. He’s also taking four 3-pointers per game and has made only 26 percent of those too. Banchero finishes well at the rim, and his ability to live at the line pushes him toward about league-average efficiency. But his effective field goal percentage of 49.0 percent is over four points below the league average.

Second, Banchero has really struggled on defense. Most rookies do, so it’s not a huge problem at this stage, but when talking on the margins about whether someone should be an All-Star, it matters. He’s not a disaster on the ball, and I don’t think he’s disengaged. It’s shows up more in the way his attention to detail wavers from time to time when he’s away from the ball and in some of his mechanical stuff. He has a tendency to hop around around the court as opposed to staying down and sliding, which leads to poor reaction times as he tries to get his momentum going again. He also ball watches.

Below is a very good example against the Kings. Here, Banchero is guarding Harrison Barnes. De’Aaron Fox drives, and Banchero just sinks in the lane. My bet is that he thought Wendell Carter Jr. was going to have to help onto Fox to contest the shot at the rim and he needed to sink in to defend Domantas Sabonis as the dump-off option. But Bol Bol had already recovered into contest position as the big defender in the primary on-ball action, and there wasn’t any reason for it.

Again, to some extent, this is small potatoes for a player 11 games into his career. We’re having a legitimate All-Star conversation about a rookie in this space. That’s how good Banchero has been.

Walker Kessler — No. 7

Walker Kessler is arguably the biggest surprise of the rookie class. His defense and rebounding has been terrific in the 15 minutes per night he plays as backup center for the Utah Jazz. We knew he’d be able to be defend in the NBA in the regular season — he posted the best block rate in over a decade in college basketball last season and did so in an athletic SEC — but I don’t think anyone could have anticipated him doing this well this early.

Kessler’s impact in terms of on/off numbers has been staggering. It’s a super small sample, and it’s clouded by the fact that teams are shooting only 32 percent from 3 when he’s out there. But with him on the court, Utah has only given up 107 points per 100 possessions, versus giving up 116 per 100 when he’s off the court. Even if Kessler’s not really having an impact on the aberrant 3-point misses, he certainly is impacting what teams shoot around the rim. And when he’s out there, teams have only made 59 percent of their shots at the basket, per PBP Stats. But the most important number when considering that impact? Among those 54 players that contest at least four shots at the rim per game, Kessler’s 10.8 contests per 36 minutes is the second-best mark in the league behind Myles Turner’s 12. He’s just constantly available, and teams constantly try to attack him to little avail.

One of the more fun little things to watch from this rookie class has been the way Kessler plays cat-and-mouse with guards and bigs out of ball screens. His feet stay active, with his hips ready to drop to cut off an angle. He’s enormous at 7-foot-1, allowing him to contest when necessary. He keeps everything in front of him, which means rollers rarely get behind him, and he allows his guards to recover back in front or get a rear-window contest on a jumper. He is particularly good at baiting guards into taking little midrange shots and getting a late contest — or even at times simply just letting them take it and going to rebound depending on who the shooter is. This is stuff coaches love to see from drop-coverage bigs given how much of NBA basketball is a math game now. If a team is living by taking contested midrange shots, the odds are pretty good that Utah will come out ahead.

Here’s a good example against the New York Knicks, Immanuel Quickley and Jericho Sims. Watch the way Kessler plays the gap between Quickley and Sims, keeping his feet active and using his length to stay in the gap so that Quickley can’t make the pass and is stuck taking a contested shot. In the meantime, Kessler buys his defender, Malik Beasley, time to get back into the play and contest the shot. It’s textbook stuff.

The difference between Kessler and the next guy we’ll talk about is his offense. Kessler has been a very reliable lob threat and dunker-spot finisher this year for the Jazz, shooting nearly 70 percent at the rim. Despite having extremely small hands for a big, Kessler catches everything above chest level. And more importantly, his mobility and feel allows him already to be effective as a dribble-handoff screener. He’s a guy who does all of the little things really well and is on his way to an All-Rookie team berth if he keeps this up.

Christian Koloko — No. 8

Not to be outdone necessarily by Kessler, Christian Koloko has entered Toronto’s starting lineup for almost half of its games this season and been extremely effective as a defense-first big Nick Nurse can rely upon to be an impediment to opposing teams. It has to be seen as a bit of a surprise that Koloko has been this useful this quickly given that he was a second-round pick and his overall frame still needs some work in terms of lower-body strength. But my top two defenders in college basketball last season were Kessler and Koloko, and we have a real track record of the best collegiate defenders over the last few years turning into early impact NBA defenders (Davion Mitchell, Herb Jones, Matisse Thybulle) even though defending in college basketball is often dissimilar schematically from defending in the NBA due to the increased space that has to be covered.

I think Koloko is having an even greater impact on Toronto’s defense than Kessler is on Utah’s. The numbers in terms of on/off metrics aren’t as staggering, but they’re close. Toronto gives up 105 points per 100 possessions when Koloko is on the court, versus 117 when he’s off it. And Koloko’s actually a bit more versatile in terms of his coverages than Kessler. Toronto will at times play Koloko closer to the level in ball-screen coverages or will flat drop him. Occasionally, he’s shown the ability to get caught out on an island with athletic guards, and Toronto can deal with the results when that happens. Koloko’s mobility and length makes him such a weapon in recovery. Just ask Jaden Ivey, who is one of the most athletic guards in the league and thought he had Koloko beat in this play below until he didn’t. Koloko just swallowed up every millimeter of space Ivey had created with the blow-by in one single stride.

It’s obviously not all about being able to stick out on an island. It’s also about Koloko being an enormous impediment at the rim. He doesn’t contest quite as often as Kessler, but teams are shooting just 54 percent when he’s the closest defender on shots at the rim, per the NBA site. The most mind-boggling number, though, has to do with what his presence back there allows his teammates to do. Toronto’s perimeter defense is built around long, rangy, switchable defenders — as well as noted ball-hawk Fred VanVleet. When Koloko is on the court, per Basketball-Reference, teams turn the ball over on 20 percent of their possessions. That’s not a direct reflection of Koloko himself forcing those turnovers but rather of his presence empowering those players to gamble a bit more and force live-ball turnovers — something that also really helps the Raptors’ offense given how bogged down that can get at times. Toronto leads the NBA in turnover percentage, and Koloko has been a big reason why even if he’s not the one getting deflections.

Speaking of the offense, I do think Koloko’s presence out there hinders the Raptors in a fairly real way. He’s not someone opposing teams really need to worry about out there when he’s on the court. He’s shooting just 46 percent from the field, despite the fact that 45 of his 57 attempts this season have either been layups or dunks. He’s a total non-threat if he’s not dunking. Somehow, Koloko has made just nine of his 25 layup attempts this season. If you can stop him from dunking, he can’t really hurt you right now because he’s not a post option, and frankly you don’t really feel all that comfortable when he has the ball in his hands away from the rim in different actions. He has taken only 57 shots in almost 300 minutes and isn’t really a threat as a passer. Nurse does a fairly good job of scheming him so he doesn’t get in the way all that often, but Koloko has a lot of work to do on the offensive end to become a league-average starting center. The good news for the Raptors is that his defensive ceiling is through the roof based on the early returns. If he can figure out a way to improve his touch and feel as a passer, his defense will allow him to be a significant impact player.

Jabari Smith Jr. — No. 15

This is the bummer of the rankings. Jabari Smith Jr. has really struggled early in his rookie season. I probably should have put one of Braun or LaRavia at No. 15, but I wanted to write about Smith’s struggles. He is shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 30.2 percent from 3. For a player who was one of the best shooters in the 2022 NBA Draft class and one of the best 6-foot-10-plus shooters I’ve ever evaluated, those are stunning marks. So, what’s going on?

I think it went a bit underrated throughout the pre-draft process that it takes Smith a fairly large amount of time to load into his jump shot. And when you move from college to the NBA, those windows close even more quickly, and the increase in length leads to even harder, more contested shots. This is why being able to shoot directly off the hop is so important in the NBA. You need to be able to load into your shot quickly. Doing it off of a one-two step allows defenders to get back into the play. Two clips below showcase that, one from Auburn and one from Houston.

He’s so open in the second shot, and it takes him so long to get his left foot set that it allows Toronto time to recover and contest. I think it seems to even go beyond that, though. It just looks like Smith is pressing to get out of what has to be the most prolonged slump of his young career. He doesn’t look shook — he’s still willing to fire up 3s and take shots when they’re open — but it also seems like he’s getting frustrated when you watch Rockets games.

This is ultimately the crux of the issue with Smith: Jump-shooting is what he does and what makes him special as a prospect. He has been so good at it throughout his career that you had to feel good about it continuing to work at the NBA level — and I still think it will. Once he gets through the slump and quickens up his load into his shot, Smith is going to be fine. He’s already a pretty strong defender who wreaks havoc with his length and athleticism across the court in help and is pretty switchable.

But when the jumper doesn’t fall — and it’s not falling right now — Smith is not an effective player on offense. He’s not a high-level passer and doesn’t have elite rim-running capabilities to run him as a pick-and-roll big to the basket to get clean looks off lobs because he’s not an overly vertical threat. He’s not an elite shot creator as a ballhandler to be able to create a shot for himself in a mismatch out of isolations. Smith is a shooter, and right now, he’s going through it a bit.

I went into watching all of Smith’s tape expecting to think that situational factors are holding him back. He’s been a strong movement shooter throughout his career and has only taken four shots off screens this season, something that theoretically would be an indictment of Stephen Silas and a coaching staff that is running extremely rudimentary offensive concepts. I do think Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green often miss him being open when they’re driving to the rim. I don’t think either of these factors are working to help Smith all that much or put him in an awesome situation.

At the end of the day, though, they’re not the main issue. Smith is missing open looks. You could run him off a million screens, and Porter could hit him on every single kickout opportunity. It just doesn’t make a difference if Smith is only going to make his shots when he has at least 4 feet of separation from his defender at a 32 percent clip, as per the NBA site.

Jalen Green went through a prolonged slump to start last season in Houston and eventually broke out of it. My bet is Smith eventually breaks out of his slump. He’s been too good of a shooter at every level for this to continue. Eventually he’ll turn it around, then get a chance to quicken up his release further in the offseason. But it’s been a slog early in the season, and the defensive prowess is the only thing that allowed Smith to hang onto a spot on this list.

(Top photo of Paolo Banchero: Mike Watters / USA Today)