Each week in this exercise, I mine the bottom half of the odds looking for a diamond in the rough to steal a win on the Pga Tour. Sometimes it can feel a little futile. We’re shooting for plays that have implied odds of less than one percent most weeks while hoping for minor miracles.

While we may list the outright odds for all the sleepers here, we’d certainly recommend the value in using these picks as each-way bets, top-five plays, in matchup or group picks or in your daily fantasy lineups. If you’ve done so, we’ve had some modest hits in recent weeks.

Over the last four PGA TOUR events, this sleeper picks column has landed four top-five finishers, with a fifth earning a top 10.

The Fall Swing picks up a bit at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this weekend with some of the bigger names in golf back in tournament play. It’s a perfect time to keep the momentum rolling. We’ve been circling winners in recent weeks, and now is the time to cash one.

These five players have plenty of value down in Mexico this week:

Adam Long +8000 (BetMGM)

We’ll start with the most clear “horse for the course” this week, based on his past results at this venue. In three appearances at the El Camaleón Golf Club, Long has been stellar. He was T2 in 2020, T3 in 2021 and T22 last year in this event.

According to metrics from DataGolf, that gives Long the best Strokes Gained per round at this venue – better than Viktor Hovland, the two-time reigning champion of the event.

Long’s start to the Fall Swing hasn’t inspired much confidence, though he is riding three straight made cuts. Returning to a course where he’s thrived is good enough for a pick this week.

Looking at this week’s field ranked by Strokes Gained: Tee to Green per round over the last 12 months, some might be surprised to see Kirk’s name listed with top players as the eighth-best in that span. Kirk has used his crafty short game to lift his putting and ball striking, racking up competitive finishes over the last year.

Last season on the PGA TOUR, he continuously posted strong outings, including eight top 20s.

At this venue, he’s made five starts and cashed five cuts, peaking with a T7 back in 2017. There’s clearly some optimism in the market with other books listing Kirk as low as +6600.

Francesco Molinari +10000 (DraftKings)

After an impressive T15 at the Open Championship at the Old Course last July, Molinari took an extended break. He didn’t tee it up again until the BMW PGA Championship in September, where he earned a top-10 finish.

He’s made two more starts in Europe this fall, making the cut and finishing T34 or better at the Italian Open and the Dunhill Links Championship.

If he’s going to perform at that level, better than he looked missing five of eight cuts last Spring, he’s undervalued at this price.

We took Yu last week, and he finished T3. There’s no reason to avoid picking him again. He’s a 24-year-old Korn Ferry Tour graduate, fully capable of a breakout season on the PGA TOUR this year. If that’s going to happen, he’s going to make a name for himself among the watered-down fields of the Fall Swing events.

So far, he’s looked the part, making three of four cuts with two finishes in the top 20. Yu rides a streak of 10 straight rounds of 70 or better into Mexico this week, with a real chance to build some momentum. Plenty of rookies have looked worthy of their spot on TOUR so far, with Yu on the short list of candidates most likely to grab a win this Fall.

Most weeks, Lee is not someone to target while betting on PGA TOUR golf. He missed 12 cuts in 20 starts last season, including two separate streaks of four straight missed cuts.

When his game clicks, however, it really clicks. In the seven tournaments last season where he made the cut and did not withdraw, Lee had three top 10s and five top-25 finishes. That trend has been pretty consistent across his career.

So if you can pinpoint a week where he could get hot, he’s a great player for a lottery ticket. At Mayakoba, he’s proven himself to be competitive. His last five finishes here are all T26 or better, with a T7 last season, a solo runner-up in 2019 and a T3 in 2015. That’s a strong enough track record for me.