For me, one main attraction to superfectas
is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this
bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some
circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you
observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to
realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the
superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two
positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you
select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top
four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta
wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven
other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There
are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no
sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without
getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a
race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure
that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To
maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential
for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an Odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at
very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

The Saturday card at Keeneland provides two dirt chances, Aqueduct provides one on dirt and Santa Anita provides one on turf.

At Keeneland

Race 2

A field of 10 line up in this six furlong dirt race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up including three runners coming in off the claim. Two runners each exit dirt races at Keeneland and Churchill with one each exiting dirt races at Prairie Meadows, Thistledown, Fairgrounds, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Belterra with the final runner coming out of a turf race at Ellis Park. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of greater than four in 10 starts overall and over one in two starts at the distance. The field has combined for a lead at the second call one in ten starts. I expect a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 1 Bayshore Foxes for high percentage trainer Thomas Van Berg has been in the top four six of her eight dirt tries and has been near the lead at the second call in most of those efforts. Her strong tactical speed should be an advantage at odds of 15-1 as your key runner in her second try at six furlongs where she has a win in her only effort.

Dan Peitz saddles few these days and he sends out No. 5 Wicked Wonder who exits three straight routes including a last out on turf. She does not have tactical speed but has shown on pace and closing ability in those route attempts and will be inheriting a placing late at odds of 10-1.

No. 10 Surcharge is going to be adding some distance after her last two tries both 5.5 furlong dashes where she was much improved against lesser company. She will be making up ground in the stretch at odds of 5-1.

No. 8 Big Java comes in off the claim for Michael Lauer. She has been in the top four five of her seven starts all dirt, has a balanced running style, should be just off the front runners early and make a bid late at odds of 4-1.

No. 4 Dallas Volunteer comes out of two straight 6.5 furlong dirt races a demanding sprint distance, is in the money three of five tries, runs evenly with a stalking type style and did run against No. 5 Wicked Wonder finishing similarly to that runner when they met earlier in the year in a route effort. She will take a lot of money as one of the betting choices.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 1 with 4, 5, 8 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 4

Nine fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up will face off in this seven furlong allowance event on the dirt. Eight of the nine exit dirt races including four at Churchill, two at Keeneland, one each at Oaklawn and Delaware and a final runner coming out of a turf race at Keeneland. The field has combined for a lead at the second call well over one in two tries overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight tries. I expect a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 2 Hypersport has never been worse than fourth in seven lifetime tries and has encountered some of the toughest competition in the field across those tries. She should be just off the lead throughout and a strong stretch factor as your key runner at odds of 9-2 trying the distance for the first time.

No. 9 Aunt Naughty trained by Shug McGaughey will be right on or near the lead throughout and has finished in the top four six of her eight dirt tries. I anticipate another solid performance for this runner who took seven tries to break her maiden at odds of 12-1.

California based trainer Jonathan Wong saddles No. 6 My Kentucky Girl who exits two poor turf efforts after two solid dirt runs at short distances all in California. She should be closing from off the pace and be a strong superfecta factor late at odds of 6-1.

No. 4 Braganza won by open lengths on debut at the distance and faces a bigger more seasoned field in this her second try. She should be a late mover at relatively low odds and a repeat of that performance makes her a solid contender against this field.

The probable favorite off two nearly wire-to-wire scores against large fields including her last start at this distance and course is No. 7 Olga Isabel. This filly will be on the lead as long as she can last but may wilt if she faces any early pace pressure and is going to be an underlay.  

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 4, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

At Aqueduct

Race 9

The Bold Ruler Stakes (G3) a six furlong dirt event for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including three trained by Norman Cash. All runners exit dirt races including three at Aqueduct, two each at Parx and Laurel and one each at Pimlico, Saratoga and Keeneland. The field has combined for an in the money rate of well over one in two starts overall and nearly three in four starts at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call over one in seven starts for races that show. I expect a solid pace with the advantage to mid-pack runners.

John Toscano sends out No. 8 Runninsonofagun who has been in the money nine of 10 starts and is the classic grinder who continues to impress always grinding his way to a solid placing although he does not win much. He is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

No. 2 Drafted is the truest closer in the field and will be moving late but would need a lot to go his way to win this race. His solid overall record and top four finishes eight of his last ten tries make him a solid superfecta factor at odds of 6-1.

One of the Norman Cash trainees is No. 7 Eastern Bay who has by far the most tries in the field with 51 starts and this hard hitter has finished in the top four each of his last ten tries all on dirt.  He should grind his way to another solid finish at odds of 4-1.

Chad Summers saddles No. 1 Meraas for his second stateside try after running abroad. He should be on the lead and is dangerous on the lead if allowed to clear the field based upon his one U.S try at Saratoga where he came home in a solid time off a long layoff. His odds are 5-1.

No. 4 Jaxon Traveler trained by Steve Asmussen has been in the money 13 of 14 at the distance and in the other race he finished 5th. Based upon this record and his grinding style he is a solid player here at relatively low odds.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 1, 2, 4 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

At Santa Anita

Race 7

Nine have been entered in the Twilight Derby (G2) contested at a mile and one-eighth on the turf for 3-year-olds including two each trained by Peter Eurton and Peter Miller. Seven of the nine exit turf races including six at Del Mar and one at Hawthorne with the final two runners coming out of dirt races at Santa Anita and Del Mar with this final runner trying turf for the first time. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of two of three starts overall and a similar rate at the distance. The field has combined for a lead at the second call one in nine starts for races that show. I expect a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to runners forwardly placed.

One of the Peter Miller trainees is No. 3 Perfect Flight making his second turf start with the first a game second in a graded stake at Del Mar. He should be forwardly placed and a solid factor till the finish at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.

Peter Eurton sends out No. 1 Seven Wonders who is being included based upon the addition of distance and only a slight improvement for this stretch runner puts him squarely in the chase in his fourth start on the turf where he has faced large fields and come up short in two of those tries breaking his maiden two starts back.  He is 15-1.

The other Miller runner is No. 4 Handy Dandy who has never been off the board in nine turf tries and is a model of consistency. He has a pace pressing style and should be a strong factor late at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Graham Motion ships in one of the probable favorites No. 8 Speaking Scout, a runner who is racing at his 8th venue in his last 11 starts. He has met some of the toughest competition in this field and his inclusion is based upon a reasonable record of in the money finishes but mostly the confidence of his trainer to ship into challenging situations and come out with a record of seven top four finishes in his last ten tries.

No. 9 War At Sea saddled by Ron Ellis has contested this distance in his last two starts with a first and third place finish. He seems to be improving with distance and he will be a strong pressing factor throughout and one of the betting favorites.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 1, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.