A year ago at this time, Iowa‘s Keegan Murray was coming off a freshman season in which he started four games and averaged 7.2 points. Wisconsin‘s Johnny Davis hadn’t started a single game in his first year, averaging 7.0 points. Both players finished 2021-22 as All-Americans and top-10 NBA draft picks.

Tari Eason went from averaging 7.3 points on a middling Cincinnati team to 16.9 points on a 22-win LSU team and ended up a top-20 pick. Alondes Williams put up 6.7 points at Oklahoma two seasons ago; last year, he averaged 18.5 points and was ACC Player of the Year at Wake Forest.

Even consensus National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe was coming off a listless half-season at West Virginia before he dominated at Kentucky to the tune of 17.4 points and 15.1 rebounds.

You get the point. Breakout players emerge in different ways: freshmen making sophomore leaps, transfers fitting in better at a new home, former highly ranked recruits realizing their high school potential. There are going to be plenty more this season, maybe not ones who develop into All-Americans or lottery picks, but certainly ones who will help shape the national landscape.

Here are 14 potential candidates.

Could another Murray from Iowa be a breakout star in college basketball? Murray has developed NBA draft buzz in his own right, and just the possibility of him taking a huge step forward like his older brother is intriguing. He started just one game last season, averaging 9.7 points and 4.3 rebounds, but showed flashes of being an inside-outside threat — ranking 10th in the Big Ten from inside the arc (58.2%) while also making nearly 39% of his 3-pointers on the season. His 29-point, 11-rebound game against Indiana and his 23 points against Purdue a couple weeks later could be a sign of things to come.

What we’re hearing: “He’s not going to be what Keegan was last season, but he’s going to be more of a scorer in a bigger role. For him, it’s going to be usage. He’s just going to be involved more. There’s no Keegan, there’s no [Jordan] Bohannon… He’s got size, athleticism and shooting. He’s got a versatile game, he can play in their motion, can cut to the rim, go get some layups. He’s going to be a high-percentage guy on 2s, as well as make 3s. He has the ability to do both of those. If you told me he was going to average 15 a game, I’d believe it.” — Big Ten assistant coach

Word out of Tucson all offseason has been overwhelmingly positive about the reigning Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year. The 6-foot-5 former Utah transfer can play on or off the ball. But with the departures of Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko, Tommy Lloyd is going to need the Swede to score. He only averaged 7.2 points last season, but has shown the potential to be an effective scorer, shooting better than 46% from 3 as a freshman at Utah. Larsson also suited up for Sweden in two FIBA World Cup European qualifiers this past summer, including a game against Luka Doncic.

What we’re hearing: “He’s a guy that last year accepted his role. Was a great piece for their team. He played better than some of their starters at times. Him, [Justin] Kier and [Oumar] Ballo were a terrific bench. But he’ll have a bigger role where he’ll have to produce like those guys did, like [Bennedict] Mathurin and [Dalen] Terry did. And that might be a challenge for him. He’ll have to get out of his comfort zone. He’ll have [Kerr] Kriisa and Courtney Ramey around him, should open up a lot of space for him. He showed at Utah he can be a really good shooter, was better driving last year and he’s a good defender. If Arizona is going to be good, he’s going to have to be one of the best players in the league.” — Pac-12 assistant coach

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Hawkins entered his freshman season with positive offseason buzz, until multiple injuries led to an uneven campaign in Storrs. When healthy, though, he showed the scoring ability that made him an ESPN 100 recruit. He scored 16 points in 15 minutes in the third game of his college career — a win over Auburn in the Bahamas. He also had three double-figure scoring games off the bench in Big East play. With some key veterans departing, Hawkins will take on a go-to scoring role for Dan Hurley, so expect a big increase from his 5.8 PPG from last season.

What we’re hearing: “He’s got some of the best footwork in college basketball. How he comes off screens, the quickness of his release. He doesn’t need much room. Just get him the ball and he’ll figure it out. I love him. He’s [UConn’s] best prospect. Last year I think it was a combination of his injuries, Tyrese Martin playing a lot at the 3 and then Andre Jackson emerging. I think he’s a fringe first-rounder. I think his ceiling is the second-best NBA prospect in the league behind Cam Whitmore. The way he comes off screens is NBA-caliber. He has elite shot-making and 3-point shooting in his skill set.” — NBA scout

Hickman and fellow five-star guard Hunter Sallis were expected to come in last season and be potential X factors in the Gonzaga backcourt. It didn’t pan out for either, but the former should have the ball in his hands from day one this season. He only averaged 5.1 points and 1.3 assists in 2021-22, but garnered significant NBA draft buzz out of high school due to his ability to make plays in the half court and make shots from the perimeter. Mark Few has plenty of scoring options this season — Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, Malachi Smith — but he needs someone to run the show. That someone should be Hickman.

What we’re hearing: “I like him. He didn’t get a chance last year, but [the Zags] lose all their ballhandling so he’ll be the guy. And if he’s truly the guy, if Few says, ‘Here’s the ball, let’s go’ — then I can’t remember a Gonzaga point guard that failed in that role. And he’s only a sophomore getting the reins. I think he’s poised. He’ll get them into their stuff, and you’re not going to lose a game having him out there. People are underestimating how much better [Andrew] Nembhard got last year, so I get [why he didn’t play much].” — NBA scout

Hopkins was a top-35 prospect in the 2021 recruiting class, committing to and then decommitting from Louisville in favor of in-state rival Kentucky. But he never carved out a role during his lone season in Lexington, averaging 2.1 points in just 6.4 minutes. Oddly enough, he had one standout performance in SEC play against LSU, when he had 13 points and four rebounds in 16 minutes to help beat the Tigers. But he saw just six minutes in the seven games prior, then seven minutes in the next five games. Now he’s on a Providence team that lost most of its key players from last season. Ed Cooley will be looking for guys who can make an immediate impact. With his physicality and versatility, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Hopkins emerge as the Friars’ best player.

What we’re hearing: “I’m expecting a lot from Bryce Hopkins. I think he has brought so much versatility. I think he’s just learning how to be more consistent. My terminology to him is, be an everyday guy. Dominate practice every day so you learn how to dominate in a game. He’s been a great addition to Friartown. I think when it’s said and done, Bryce Hopkins will not just be a Big East name, he’ll be a national name.” — Providence coach Ed Cooley

Gueye is another player who entered last season with expectations exceeding his recruiting ranking, but averaged 7.4 points and 5.4 rebounds in starting 33 games. Still, there was a three-game stretch in the middle of Pac-12 play that showed why he’s earning second-round NBA draft buzz — and a spot on this list. Against Washington and Oregon State, the 6-11 forward from Senegal averaged 18.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting nearly 55% from the field. More of that, please. Oh, and he’s also capable of this:

19-year old 7-footer Mouhamed Gueye, a projected second round pick, hurdles over a defender for the strong finish at Washington State practice. pic.twitter.com/cJk9P657zF

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) October 13, 2022

What we’re hearing: “He’s a really athletic big, has a good skill set. … Obviously saw his dunk the other day. He’ll be the main guy there, or one of the main guys, so I expect him to make a leap. What’s going to help him is Efe Abogidi leaving. They were both 5-men trying to play the 4. Now they have one they can focus on. And both of the guards are gone, so Kyle Smith might be able to go back to his system at San Francisco, when they ran things through the bigs, split action, got the ball to the elbow to the bigs. Last season it was a lot of ball-screens for the guards. Gueye should be the main screener, have the ball in his hands.” — Pac-12 assistant coach

There might not be a ton of room for extreme production in UCLA’s lineup this season, with veteran stars Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. returning to the fold, and five-star freshmen Amari Bailey and Adem Bona entering the picture. But Clark can make an impact at both ends of the floor. He’s come off the bench in 54 of the 60 games so far in his college career, averaging 4.6 points during his first two seasons. In the games he started, he’s proven he can be a consistent producer for the Bruins. During a five-game stretch starting last February, Clark averaged 14.8 points and 6.4 rebounds — while also cementing himself as one of the best defenders on the team.

What we’re hearing: “He really fits what Mick Cronin does. There were a lot of experienced players in front of him last season, [Johnny] Juzang, [Jules] Bernard. But when he had to play because of some injuries, he was great in that stretch. He’s a hell of a defender, plays hard in every facet of the game. And with more minutes, he’ll have more confidence in his offensive game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a jump. Campbell and Jaquez are gonna be the guys, Bailey is going to be in there, [David] Singleton is going to get shots when he plays — but Clark has been in that system. He’ll know where to find the right shot. You saw it with those other guys, it took time for Tyger and Juzang and Bernard to consolidate their spot and find their aggressiveness. UCLA finds one-on-ones and iso situations, and Clark will be good at that, at both the 3 and the 4.” — Pac-12 assistant coach

Hawkins looked poised for a breakout last season, opening with 13 points and eight rebounds and averaging 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists in the first three games. Then Kofi Cockburn returned from suspension, and Hawkins’ big season fizzled out quickly. He did have 18 points in the Big Ten tournament against Indiana, and went for 10 and 8 against Chattanooga in the NCAA tournament. Now, can he string it together consistently? Despite all those big performances, he only averaged 5.9 points and 4.3 rebounds on the season. But Cockburn is once again gone, and there is enough talent around Hawkins to take the pressure off him and let him succeed.

What we’re hearing: “There was a point last year when he was barely playing, that stretch from mid-January to mid-February. He’ll be a different type of 5-man for them [this season]. They played with Kofi as the dominant presence down low. They’re going to have to change how they play. He’ll make them different as a roller, a lob threat, a guy that occasionally pops — he made a couple 3s last year.” — Big Ten assistant coach

It feels a little strange to include Roach on this list, given he’s a former five-star recruit who played a huge role in the NCAA tournament last season. But he’s also the lone key player back on a preseason top-10 team, and huge expectations will be placed on him as the leader of a young team. Roach averaged similar numbers as a freshman and sophomore, 8.7 points and 2.8 assists as a freshman and 8.6 points and 3.2 assists last season. In the NCAA tournament, though, he put up 11.8 points and 4.0 assists, including huge shots against Michigan State and Texas Tech. If Roach’s shooting can take a step forward, he’s good enough to lead another deep March run.

What we’re hearing: “Jeremy Roach is as good as any guard in the country. He’s also ready to lead us. He’s done a great job of leading by example. He’s been through it. I’ve seen a different level of confidence in him. People don’t know how good of a shooter he is; he can really shoot. There’s responsibility to [be a playmaker], there’s responsibility to guard — and play a lot of minutes while doing it. Jeremy’s ready. The value of getting him back, I can’t speak enough on it.” — Duke coach Jon Scheyer

Toppin surprised many when he transferred to Kentucky in 2020. After all, he had started three games as a freshman at Rhode Island, with modest averages of 5.1 points and 3.9 rebounds. But as his career in Lexington has progressed, it’s obvious to see why John Calipari took a chance. Toppin is supremely explosive, especially in the open floor, and has continued to expand his game over the past couple of seasons. The numbers haven’t quite taken a leap yet (6.2 points and 3.2 rebounds last season), but improvement might be coming: Toppin was one of two Kentucky players to log at least 20 minutes in all four games on their Bahamas trip in August, and shot 8-for-15 from 3.

What we’re hearing: “The thing with Toppin is he’s a program guy. … They’re going to have their influx of freshmen, so it’s good for him that he’s been there. He’s steadily improved. He’s really worked on his body. He’s added a lot of muscle mass. Plays really hard. Gets loose balls. The biggest key for him has been he’s able to make 15-footers at a really consistent rate, but can he keep the defense honest enough where he’s making 3s? That’s the key to him being a piece or being a breakout guy.” — SEC assistant coach

Beekman has already started 55 games in his two seasons at Virginia, but when talking to coaches at ACC media day recently, he kept popping up as a candidate for a potential breakout star. Already arguably the league’s best perimeter defender, he made strides on the offensive end last season, going from 4.7 points and 24.3% 3-point shooting to 8.2 points and 33.8% 3-point shooting. He was also outstanding down the stretch, averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists in his final six games of the 2021-22. Beekman is going to be on the floor this season regardless; an improvement in his perimeter shooting could see him really take a step.

What we’re hearing: “He was close to being the ACC Defensive Player of the Year last year. He’s gifted with his hands. He needed to attack in the offseason getting physically stronger and making some improvements in his outside shooting. He really attacked those. And now he’s an upperclassman … Reece, his shot, he can knock them down. It opens up his game. He’s playing more aggressive.” — Virginia coach Tony Bennett

Nick Smith Jr., and his two fellow five-star freshmen are getting most of the preseason attention in Fayetteville, but Eric Musselman will always have a few impact transfers up his sleeve — especially Brazile. His numbers didn’t jump off the page at Missouri, where he averaged 6.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks, but he finished last season on a tear, putting up 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over his last five games. He then dominated Arkansas’ summer trip to Spain and Italy, including a 28-point game against the Bakken Bears. Jaylin Williams‘ NBA departure leaves a starting spot up for grabs down low; Brazile should be the one to step in.

What we’re hearing: “If you look at Brazile’s last several games, he averaged nearly a double-double after not playing most of the nonconference season. He’s replacing Jaylin Williams, who took a million charges and was the ultimate glue guy. But the big thing with Brazile is his skill set. He’s long, he’s active, he can step out, he can make 3s. He led all freshmen in blocked shots. He’s got NBA potential.” — SEC assistant coach

There are few players nationally more exciting at both ends of the floor than Zeigler, who came out of nowhere last season to play a key role for Rick Barnes’ Volunteers. A late signing after reclassifying two summers ago, the 5-9 guard is lightning quick with the ball in his hands and a pest defensively. He constantly puts pressure on opponents, with and without the ball. And now with Kennedy Chandler gone, he will be the primary point guard more often. He averaged 8.8 points and 2.7 assists last season, but in the final 17 games, he put up 10.9 points and shot 42.2% from 3-point range. That might be his floor in 2022-23.

What we’re hearing: “I do think he has another step in him. I really like him. He was an under-the-radar kid, signed with [Tennessee] really late. To be quite frank, there were times throughout the season when he was better than Kennedy Chandler. Sometimes when they were on the floor together, the ball should’ve been in Zeigler’s hands. He was producing at a more consistent rate. With Kennedy being gone, he’ll be able to step into a bigger role.” — SEC assistant coach

Hepburn started all 33 games for Wisconsin last season, and despite averaging 7.9 points and 2.3 assists, he was voted to the 2022-23 preseason All-Big Ten team. If the voters are correct, a breakout could be coming for the sophomore guard. Hepburn didn’t score much during the first half of 2021-22, but progressively became more confident at the end of the floor, hitting double figures in six of his final 12 games. With Johnny Davis’ departure, Greg Gard needs to find points somewhere. When Hepburn’s outside shot is falling, he can help fill those shoes.

What we’re hearing: “He’s solid. He can make a shot. He’ll have to take a leap. If he doesn’t, I don’t know where it’s coming from on that team. I don’t know how they’re replacing Davis and [Brad] Davison’s production otherwise. But it’s the Wisconsin way. I can see him becoming a key guy for them. Averaging 16, 17, 18 a game? No. Twelve or 14 though? Sure. He’s going to have the usage. Who is taking those shots if he doesn’t? Tyler Wahl isn’t becoming a 3-point shooter all of a sudden.” — Big Ten assistant coach