First mailbag of October, and there are lots of people fast-forwarding to January and the job market already. We’ll get to that and a whole lot more in this week’s Mailbag …

From Mr. Schwab (@schwab_mr): At what point does Irsay pull the plug on Frank Reich and Chris Ballard? What about Matt Ryan?

Schwab, I think we first should look at the results since Ballard hired Reich in 2018, with Ballard having at that point gone through a retooling year in ’17.

• Overall record of 38-30-1

• Playoffs in two of four years

• One playoff win

• One losing season

• Five different starting quarterbacks in five seasons

With this established, it’s incredible to think of how perception changed during Week 18 of last year. Going into that last game of the 2021 season in Jacksonville, the Colts had gotten a pretty good, if uneven, year out of Carson Wentz. They also had the NFL rushing champion and a top-10 scoring defense. That overall record at the time was 37–27, and beating a Jaguars’ team with an interim coach would’ve meant a third playoff berth in four years.

Instead, the Colts lost. Wentz was jettisoned and they traded for Matt Ryan. The embarrassment of that finish lingered over the team’s offseason. And beyond that? Well, I don’t think it’s something that Colts players and coaches are thinking about day to day. But might it have an effect on the team’s confidence when things do go wrong, as they already have this year? Sure, I think that’s plausible.

The other thing to pay attention to is the staff changes in Indianapolis. Because of their success, the Colts have been poached the past couple of offseasons, losing Nick Sirianni to Philadelphia last year, and Matt Eberflus to Chicago this year. They replaced those guys with Marcus Brady and Gus Bradley. They’ve also had a lot of turnover among position coaches, and that much change can certainly have an impact. So it’s worth looking there, too.

Still, taking all of this into account, I’d have to imagine, even with Jim Irsay’s itchy trigger finger, that Ballard and Reich would get another shot if this year goes the wrong way. I think they’ve earned that much in leading the franchise through the shocking retirement of Andrew Luck, and finding a way to head off a lot of the tumult that could’ve followed.

From Greg (@panther1gb89): When is Rhule finally fired?

Greg, I’m not sure what firing Matt Rhule now would accomplish. He hasn’t lost the locker room. There isn’t a coach on the staff you’d want to audition to be the guy after him. And you’ve got a lot of young players who could be damaged by a full season under a substitute-teacher situation. Maybe the one benefit would be to signal to potential candidates that your job will be open, or it typically can be, but it’s not like everyone wouldn’t see this one coming.

Owner David Tepper made a seven-year, $63 million commitment to Rhule in 2020, and my guess is he doesn’t want to be wrong about him. So I think seeing where the season goes is still the best and most likely course of action. I also think Rhule’s a pretty decent coach, and that roster isn’t bad. Maybe they will turn it around.

Either way, this really will get awkward only when the college hiring cycle heats up two months from now, and schools such as Colorado, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Arizona State are pressed to make decisions on their futures. Until then, I think Tepper can play the wait-and-see game without doing any damage.

From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Could Saquon or CMC potentially be traded? Or could we see a big-named d-lineman moved like Brian Burns or Montez Sweat?

Zach, you’re thinking along the right lines, because Saquon Barkley’s in a contract year, Brian Burns and Montez Sweat are up for massive extensions, and Christian McCaffrey is working through the back nine of his prime (considering the position he plays) for a team that doesn’t look particularly close to contention.

With all that established, would Matt Rhule trade away pieces like Burns and Sweat with jobs on the line in Carolina? Would owner David Tepper sign off on such a big move with the uncertainty ahead? And on the flip side, in the case of Barkley, would the Giants be able to get something that would make it worth walking away from a guy who’s been their best player through a month of this season? Wouldn’t that undermine the good program-building work that Brian Daboll and his staff have put in?

That leaves us with Sweat. He’s an interesting one. The Commanders have depth up front on defense and once they get Chase Young back up and running, it might be worth seeing what you can get for the 26-year-old with 21 career sacks, particularly if you’re planning to draft a quarterback in April.

From Floyd of Rosedale (@FloydofRosedale): Which crossover athlete would have the best shot at an all-pro NFL career? Usain is 36, so not him. Had high hopes for Lesnar but it didn’t pan out.

Floyd, love this question. I’d have said LeBron James since he was all-state and a five-star Football recruit before giving up the sport after his junior season at Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary, but you’re presenting age as a disqualifying factor, and he’s turning 38 in December. Ditto for Russell Westbrook, who’d have been dynamite based on his athleticism and build, but he turns 34 next month. Mike Trout’s another one I’d look at—he’s 31, so a little closer age-wise to what you’d look for—a fantastic athlete and son of a high school football coach.

So with those out of the way, here are a few that I like:

• Celtics guard Jaylen Brown is 25 with obscene athleticism, and a good strong build at 6’6″ and 223 pounds that’d lend itself to football. In the right strength program, he could probably carry 245 pounds and be a nightmare to deal with as a move tight end.

• Magic guard Jalen Suggs was an all-state quarterback in Minnesota, with offers from Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Georgia. He’s just 21, so he’s an easy one. And explosive as he is at 6’5″ and 205 pounds, you’d think he has room to grow football-wise.

• Grizzlies guard Ja Morant would be a fascinating one because he’s got the sort of creative athleticism we see from Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes—a sort of sense for how to put it all to work. The question would be whether he’d hold up at 6’3″ and 174 pounds.

• Yankees first baseman Aaron Judge was a high-end tight-end recruit, garnering offers from Notre Dame and Stanford—programs that have NFL assembly lines at that position. He’s 6’7″. He’s a solid 282 pounds. Good shot he’d have made it.

• Braves third baseman Austin Riley was good enough as a high school quarterback to draw Division I interest (Mississippi State offered him) despite giving up the sport after his sophomore season. And he has the frame at 6’3″ and 240 pounds and athleticism to fit in pro football.

• Hockey was harder … but I found someone, in Islanders winger Anders Lee, who was an all-state quarterback in Minnesota, and has requisite size (6’3″, 230 pounds) for consideration. Size, while we’re here, is the issue with guys such as Connor McDavid and Nathan McKinnon.

• Along those lines, throw the Capitals’ 28-year-old, 6’4″, 220-pound enforcer Tom Wilson in there. He’s, at the very least, big and tough enough to cut it.

• Olympic hurdler Grant Holloway—a silver medalist in Tokyo—is another slam dunk. He was a four-star receiver recruit out of Virginia before deciding to focus on track at Florida. He had football offers from Clemson, Michigan, Penn State and Miami, among others.

And I’m sure there are a lot more.

That’s the fun thing about football. It’s not like baseball or hockey—guys can pick up the sport later and pick it up fast. You don’t need to be playing from the time you turn 8 to make it (see: Mailata, Jordan). So this exercise has some realism to it. Appreciate you putting me to work on this, Floyd. Spent more time on it than I figured I would.

From Brad (@BRADNFLNBA): If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish with the losing record is it Tom Brady’s fault? The reason I asked is because everybody gives him all the credit in wins. #NFL

Brad, I think there’s a lot more nuance to it than that. But sure, if the Buccaneers get old in key spots on offense—and we already saw a third-contract vet (Ryan Jensen) go down—then you can say the reason they collectively aged out is because having Brady on the roster influenced those moves. I’d argue that while you have Brady, you should be doing everything you can to win in the here and now, future be damned, but that’s just me.

And to this point, he’s gotten the credit for one very obvious and apparent reason: He deserves it. The Buccaneers went 13 seasons without a playoff berth before Brady arrived. He got them in the postseason right away. Over the first 44 years of the franchise, the Bucs won six playoff games. In the two years they’ve had Brady, they’ve won five. So the same way he changed for the Patriots, he’s changed everything for the Buccaneers.

So, seriously, give it a rest. If the price the Buccaneers pay for the last few years is that the wheels fall off this year and they have to revamp next year, it’ll have been a million percent worth it.

From karalot73 (@karalot73): Will the new concussion protocol be put in place this week?

Kara, I think that’s the hope. I don’t think they’ll add or subtract to the protocol piecemeal—even though we know they’re changing the policy on handling gross motor instability to take gray areas out of it by eliminating cause. I don’t think they’ll change that before a full agreement is reached. But I do think this whole thing is being expedited, and the league is making sure doctors, in the interim, are overly cautious about putting players back in games after head injuries.

And if you look at Sunday and Monday—after what happened to Tua Tagovailoa on Thursday night—I believe Chiefs safety Justin Reid was the only player evaluated for a head injury who went back into a game.

My guess is that’s not an accident. So the good news here may be that the NFL is following the advice neurologists have given football people over the years on these situations—when in doubt, sit them out.

From Conor Darrah (@rennicksdad): Who won the Buddy Ryan/Kevin Gilbride fight?

I’d score it for Buddy.

From micho Rizo (@JdotFoo): Are the Raiders better off losing this year as far as a long-term benefit?

Micho, back in the day, I might’ve answered yes. If there were a Trevor Lawrence available in this year’s draft, I could see it. But in the here and now, I’ll say no. And this is one where I look at the construction of the two teams everyone in the AFC is chasing—the Chiefs and Bills—as having provided the blueprint.

Neither Andy Reid nor Sean McDermott tore down those rosters when they arrived in 2013 and ’17, respectively. Instead, they built their teams, got to the playoffs in Year 1, and did it with veteran quarterbacks, having resisted the temptation to go all in in the draft. Then, in the years to follow, they methodically turned the rosters over, found quarterbacks they loved, and you can see what that’s become.

The upshot of doing it that way for both is they didn’t really need to go too far to sell the program, because the program gave the players results right away. It’s also meaningful, as I see it, that Reid and McDermott invested in players they inherited along the way—showing that there wasn’t going to be a my-guys-their-guys division on the team. And I think both coaches would tell you that the foundation of what they’ve built was laid as a result of not just waiving some sort of metaphorical white flag in Year 1.

Now if you inherit a broken roster, that’s different. But coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler didn’t. So they’re doing the right thing now in doing all they can to win right now.

From Schootzi (@sch00tzi): how historic does the Niners D look at this point in the season?

Schootzi, the Niners looked aggressive, fast, swarming and dominant against the Rams on Monday night, and it’s no fluke—this is very much who they expected to be based on their progress in training camp. Remember hearing how Trey Lance had some pretty bad days over the summer? What the guys running the team would tell you is that a defense they expected to be among the league’s best was a big reason why.

The ceiling is high on that group, and the numbers are already impressive, with all four of the Niners’ opponents held under 3.3 yards per carry, and the past three under 6.5 yards per pass attempt (the Bears topped that in the opener, but threw it only 17 times, and that was in a monsoon).

So, yeah, historic is a little strong. But it should be one of the NFL’s best units. The talent and coaching is 100% in place, and a renovated secondary should make it better than it’s been.

From nick mullens the goat (@dadawwad): Are the Vikings and Kevin O’Connell legit?

Nick, yes, I think they are. I still have the Packers winning the NFC North. But I had Minnesota making the playoffs as a wild card, and that’s where I’d put them now. A lot of the names there that are familiar—Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith—have been a part of Vikings playoff teams. And young guys such as Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw certainly seem to me like winning players.

I see this the same way I see the Raiders: O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah inherited something that isn’t broken, and they aren’t gonna act as if it was to serve their own purposes. So the idea would be similar to how I laid it out for the Sean McDermott Bills or Andy Reid Chiefs, where the goal would be to integrate the current cornerstones into the building and draft well enough to churn the roster and find more system fits.

There’s plenty of reason to be cautiously optimistic about that new regime.

From S_cott1024 (@GolfSthompson): Is Green Bay’s poor defensive performance thus far – relative to expectation – indicative of a lack of talent or Joe Barry’s track record as a mediocre DC?

Scott, I think we have to give this time, but there’s no question talent is not an issue. There are seven (!) homegrown first-round picks on the defense—Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, Eric Stokes and rookies Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. There are big-ticket outside free agents that have been signed, such as Preston Smith and Adrian Amos. There are free-agent flyers that have hit such as De’Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, and even Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry.

And when I was at training camp, what I saw was a defensive unit that was capable of driving Aaron Rodgers nuts in practice with its length, explosiveness and playmaking.

Bottom line, Green Bay should have a top-five defense this year. I love Barry as a coach, and think he’s way better than people realize. He was a trusted confidant of Sean McVay’s in Los Angeles, and Matt LaFleur brought him having worked with him out there. But there’s no question that the bar should be high. Right now, the Packers rank seventh in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. They can be better. And I think they will be.

From tim hopkins (@arquimedezpozo): Why did the Patriots go so conservative in overtime? First and ten from the 50 needing 15 yards and they go run run pass. A play action pass on first or second down wins the game. Shades of early last year vs Tampa where they settled for a 60-yard field goal.

Tim, I understand what you’re saying. I think the problem in that situation would be running the ball on second-and-5 in overtime. Still, you have to consider how limited the Patriots’ library of plays was with rookie Bailey Zappe in there—and what they thought their best plays would be in that situation. It’s not simply run vs. pass. It’s what you’d see as a money play in that situation for the other 10 guys in the huddle, and then how many of those plays you feel the young quarterback could execute in that situation.

Remember, until last week, Zappe had essentially gone almost a month without physically running the Patriots’ offensive plays in practice. So if you’re Matt Patricia calling it, my guess is you’re probably pretty limited in what’ll work for you there.

We’ll see, if Zappe gets the call this week, how much they’ve grown from it. 

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