The World Conference on Climate Change will take place on October 24 - 26, 2016 in Valencia, Spain.
Here is the list of speakers and subjects for the first day of this three day event:
Energy Efficiency & Global warming Consultant USA
Keynote: 3.7 to 6.5 °C global surface warming from today’s CO2 and CH4 levels
Gene Fry completed his PhD in resource economics from Cornell University in 1989. He was director of policy and planning for the Maine Energy Office, then economist in the electric power division of the Massachusetts utility commission for 13 years. After stints as contributing editor for climate change issues at the Global Environmental Change Report and Business and the Environment, he managed energy efficiency program evaluations for Northeast Utilities for 3 years, until he retired in 2011. He has published 2 articles in refereed journals.
Earth’s surface will warm, due just to today’s 400 ppm CO2 and 1840 ppb CH4, by 2-8 x as much as it has since 1880. Already, land surfaces have warmed 1.0°C (5-year mean) over the last 50 years and 1.5°C over the last 130. Sea surfaces have warmed 1.0°C over the past 100. Meanwhile, ocean depths add more heat every 2 years than all the energy humans have ever used.rnVostok ice core data analysis connects today’s CO2 levels with 7.4°C surface warming there, compared to the 1951-1980 mean. Using a 50% polar to global ∆°C conversion, using NASA observations since 1880, the ∆ 3.7°C result is highly consistent with CO2 and ∆°C data from 4 and 14 million years ago. Adding Vostok CH4 data to the analysis connects today’s CH4 and CO2 levels with 6.5°C global surface warming above baseline. ∆ 3.7°C globally (more inland and poleward) is enough to make Kansas, “breadbasket of the world,”as hot as Las Vegas.rnThe analysis suggests major lag effects to come, mostly from albedo changes. Some major albedo changes come this century, from disappearing Arctic sea ice and anthropogenic sulfates, plus receding snow cover. Albedo effects from ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica happen more slowly. When Earth last had 400 ppm CO2, sea levels were estimated at 20-35 meters above today’s, indicating up to 50% ice loss eventually. The loss rate is only 1/4 that during the recent ice ages, but still 6-7 meters / °C.rn
Fudan University China
Keynote: Climate change and sustainability of the resilient city
Xiangrong Wang is currently the director and professor of the Centre for Urban Eco-Planning & Design, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering of Fudan University in Shanghai China, the director of National Centre for Virtual Simulation of Environmental Science at Fudan University,the President of Shanghai Ecological Society, the Deputy Chairman of Urban Ecological Commission of Ecological Society of China. In addition, he is the Chair of Environmental Science and Greening Division of Shanghai Municipal Construction Commission, and the editorial members of some academic journals, such as the editor-in-chief of Journal of World Forestry (Hans Press, USA), editors of Acta Ecological Sinica, Chinese Journal of Ecology, Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, Journal of Environmental Science & Technology, etc, and reviewers of some International Journals such as Ecological Engineering, Landscape and Urban Planning, and Journal of Environmental Management.He also served as a regional vice-chair of East Asia, the IUCN Commission on Education and Communication during 2004-2012 and a steering member of INTECOL Association.
The Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly pointed out that human influence on climate is clear, some impacts of climate change will continue for centuries. Facing the challenges of climate change, the city as a complex giant system, is becoming more and more fragile,people gradually realize that in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissionsshould also be actively take action to adapt climate change, and enhancing the ecological planning as soon as possible is the core of climate change adaptation. By the end of 2013, China issued \"National Strategy of Climate Change Adaptation\", which is the first national level adaptation strategy in China. It emphasis that promoting adaptability of city; improving living environment and ensuring people’s safety while promoting the urbanization. To strengthen city to adapt climate change and also the implementation of \"National Strategy of Climate Change Adaptation\", National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction jointly prepared “Cities of China to adapt climate change action plan\", Therefore, it is critical to consider climate change risk into city governance and planning; change traditional management and concept; apply adaptive management and build up resilient city.\r\nBased on the cases study of typical resilient city in the world, this paper analyzedthe current situation of planning and practice of the resilient city in China, and put forward to a complexed indicator system from multiple areas of infrastructure, human health and welfare, social and economic development, and also provided with the policy strategies of urban planning and technical measures. It aims to strengthen the urban resilience and policy making on climate change adaptation strategy and action plan.
University of Wisconsin USA
Keynote: Mindfulness-based health-enhancement and carbon footprint reduction
Bruce Barrett MD PhD is a board certified and practising Family Physician, and tenured research Professor at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He has published more than 80 peer-reviewed scientific papers, and has directed four randomized controlled trials funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, with more than 1,500 subjects. Two of his trials assess the impact of training in mindfulness-based stress reduction on the immune system and acute respiratory infection. He has led the Mindful Climate Action group since its inception in 2014: http://www.fammed.wisc.edu/mca/
Background:Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are causing climate change. Behaviors including transportation, diet, and energy use influence societal processes that release greenhouse gas pollutants, but are also related to health and well-being. Replacing automobile driving with walking and cycling, for instance, may increase health and well-being while lowering environmental impact. Mindfulness-based practices can be effective in modifying health-related behaviors. Specific aims: (1) To pilot test a mindfulness-based behavioral program aimed at: (a) enhancement of health and well-being, and (b) reduction in carbon footprint; (2) To carryout a randomized controlled trialto assess impact on health, well-being, and carbon footprint. Approach: Our multi-disciplinary team has designed an 8-week mindfulness-based behavioral training program. The Mindful Climate Action (MCA) program aims to: (1) teach climate change core knowledge, (2) decrease household energy use, (3) reduce automobile and air transport, (4) increase active transport and physical activity, (5) modify dietary impact on carbon footprint, (6) reduce unnecessary purchasing and consumption, and (7) improve personal health and well-being. Significance: Despite known behavioral contributions towards climate change, little work has been done to understand and modify the individual-level choices and behaviors involved. Mindfulness-based trainings are rapidly proving successful for behavioral modification and health-enhancement. Behavioral training leading to increased active transport (more exercise), healthier plant-based diets, and reduced energy consumption and unnecessary purchasing could yield significant benefits in terms of both sustainability and personal health and well-being.
Emeritus, Drexel University USA
Keynote: On the issue of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and global climate change
Frederick House received his BS degree in meteorology from Penn State (1957) and served NATO forces in Europe as an Air Force Weather Officer. Upon discharge from service, he attended graduate school at the University of Wisconsin – Madison, receiving the MS (1962) and Ph.D. (1965) degrees in meteorology. Then he worked for the GCA Corporation in MA performing contract research for government and industry. In 1970, he came to Drexel University and taught physics and atmospheric science courses until retirement in August 2013. His research specialty is Satellite Meteorology with emphasis on earth radiation budget measurements and limb scanning the stratosphere in the infrared spectrum.
Greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide, are responsible for warming the earth’s climate making the planet habitable for mankind. The physics of this warming is unquestioned. “The big problem, of course, is that evidence of warming is not evidence of what causes warming. One would be astonished if mankind, with its prodigious release of greenhouse gases….were not having an impact on climate. But how and how much are critical questions?” (1) This paper examines the question of how much relative to increases in carbon dioxide. In general, climate scientists look at global warming as a time series of changing temperature along with a time series of carbon dioxide increases. The issue herein is using one series to explain the other, both of which are singular functions in time. This process seems to be a fault in their analysis procedures. This paper applies the technique of Cross Correlation which is a standard method of estimating the degree to which two series are correlated. Global and hemispheric anomalies of temperature are taken from the HadCRUT4 (United Kingdom) data set and global carbon dioxide concentrations from the EPA (United States). The results indicate a relatively weak correlation of 0.691 globally, 0.689 and 0.662 for northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. A revealing correlation between temperature anomalies and sea level changes was a robust 0.89 as might be expected. Has the scientific community been overplaying the importance of carbon dioxide and not looking carefully at the evidence in front of them?
Institute of Meat Hygiene and Technology Serbia
Keynote: Climate change impact on meat safety and availability
Time : 11:45-12:10
Ivan Nastasijevic obtained a doctor of veterinary medicine degree from University of Belgrade, Serbia and completed his PhD at University of Novi Sad/US Meat Animal Research Center, Nebraska. He served in a position of Technical Officer, Food Safety at WHO Regional Office for Europe and was engaged for several years as a lecturer at University of Central Lancashire (UK). Currently, he is the associate director at Institute of Meat Hygiene and Technology, Belgrade, a premier research institution in Serbia and southeastern Europe. He has published more than 30 papers in reputable journals and international conferences.
In 21st century a world will be facing with increased impact of climate change on meat production. The climate change effects (higher temperatures, shifting seasons, more frequent and extreme weather events – floods, draughts, hurricanes), coupled with increasingly sofisticated and extended global meat supply chain, will inevitably impact the meat safety/availability. By 2050, the world`s population is expected to reach 9 billion, with most of people living in developing countries. The raising economies/incomes of these countries will result in increased demand for high-quality protein, i.e. meat and meat products. The production of sufficient quantity of safe meat will present the challenge. Changes in epidemiology of meat borne biological and environmental/chemical hazards and their occurrence at multiple points along the meat chain continuum, from the primary production to consumption, may be expected. The main biological meat borne hazards which should be prioritized are as follows: Campylobacter spp. (thermophilic), Salmonella enterica, Yersinia enterocolitica/pseudotuberculosis, human pathogenic VTEC, ESBL/AmpC E. Coli, Toxoplasma gondii and Trichinella; the chemical hazards which should be tackled are: PCBs, dioxins, pesticides, veterinary drugs (antibiotics, anthelmintics, coccidiostats). Proactive approach in assuring meat safety/availability may be only achieved with strenghtened inter-sectoral cooperation between risk assessors (academia) and risk managers (environmental/veterinary/food/health authorities). Prevention and tackling of climate change impact on meat chain requires integrated, synergistic and coordinated controls at major modules in the meat supply chain (on-farm, transportation/livestock markets, slaughter/meat processing, storage/distribution/retail, consumers). Such approach will improve capacities of governments for early identification and prioritization of the climate-induced emerging biological and chemical risks.
Emeritus, Stockholm University Sweden
Keynote: Causes and effects of climate change
Time : 12:35-13:00
Nils-Axel (”Niklas”) Mörner took his Ph.D. in Quaternary Geology at Stockholm University in 1969. He was head of a personal institute at Stockholm University and the Swedish National Council on Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics (P&G) from 1991 up to his retirement in 2005. He has written many hundreds of research papers and several books. He is a global traveller and has undertaking field studies in 59 different countries. Several students have taken their doctoral degree at the P&G institute, which became an international centre for global sea level change, paleoclimate, paleoseismics, neotectonics, paleomagnetism, Earth rotation, planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction, etc. He was president of the INQUA Neotectonics Commission (1981- 1989) and president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Dynamics (1999-2003). In 2008, he was awarded the Golden Condrite of Merit (from Algarve University) “for his irreverence and contribution to our understanding of sea level change”. Among his books one may note; Earth Rheology, Isostasy and Eustasy (Wiley, 1984), Climate Change on a Yearly to Millennial Basis (Reidel, 1984), Paleoseismicity of Sweden: a novel paradigm (P&G-print, 2003), The Greatest Lie Ever Told (P&G-print, 2007), The Tsunami Threat: Research & Technology (InTech, 2011), Geochronology: Methods and Case Studies (InTech, 2014), Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning (Nova, 2015).
Climate is constantly changing, and there is nothing new or unusual in the recorded changes over the last decades and centuries. The long-term Ice Age cycles are forced by the changes in the Earth–Sun relation. The yearly cycle is a function of the tilt of the spin-axis. The daily cycle is a function of Earth’s rotation. The decadal, centennial and millennial changes in climate have a more uncertain origin. The more we learn, the more obvious it becomes that they are forced (at least predominantly) by solar variability and its changes in emission of luminosity and solar wind. Having established this, we can be reasonably sure that we are facing a new Grand Solar Minimum to culminate at around 2030-2040. This implies that the period of global warming is more or less over. We think this represents “reality” because it is backed up by available observational facts. The hypothesis of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by the post-industrial and especial post-world-war 2 increase in atmospheric CO2 content tells a quite different story. This idea is founded on models; not observations, hence it represents “virtual reality”. There are 102 AGW-models of present-to-future changes in temperature. They all rise up to a level in year 2100 of +2.7 ±0.7 °C. Global observational records from Earth’s surface stations as well as satellite and balloon records from the troposphere give no such trend, however; with little or no rise since 2003. In true science, observations overrule models. Sea level change is another central issue. On a global scale, sea level has changed over the last 300 years in the order of ±1.0 mm/yr (10 cm in 100 yrs). Today, the variability range between ±0.0 and +1.0 mm/yr. Other claims are not anchored in proper observational facts.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory USA
Keynote: Pathways to net-zero carbon emissions
Time : 09:50-10:15
Douglas Ray is Director of Strategic Partnerships at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and serves on the Editorial Advisory Board for the ACS journal Energy & Fuels, the Carbon Capture Simulation and the Joint BioEnergy Institute Boards of Directors, the Advisory Committee for the Dalian (China) National Laboratory for Clean Energy, the International Energy Agency\'s Experts Group on Science for Energy, and the Scientific Advisory Committee of the DOE\'s Combustion Research Facility. He holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry from the University of California-Berkeley.
Limiting global warming requires that net emissions of greenhouse gases ultimately be reduced to zero. It is becoming increasing probable that “negative CO2 emissions” will be required to limit global warming to 2o C. I will discuss this thesis, various approaches to negative CO2 emissions, the scientific challenges associated with these approaches and offer a prognosis.
Norman P. A. Huner
University of Western Ontario Canada
Keynote: Photosynthetic acclimation and enhanced crop productivity in response to climate change: The grand design of photosynthesis
Time : 09:25-09:50
Norman P.A. Huner is a Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Environmental Stress Biology and the founder and Principal Scientist of the Biotron Centre for Experimental Climate Change Research, University of Western Ontario focused on the elucidation of the mechanisms by which plants, microbes and insects sense and adjust to climate change. Dr. Hunerwas elected as a Fellow of The Royal Society of Canada in 1995 and was the past Director of the Life Sciences Division, Academy III, the Royal Society of Canada as well as a past president of the Canadian Society of Plant Biologists. Since 1980, his research group has pioneered the concept of excitation pressure as a redox sensing mechanism in plants, algae and cyanobacteria.
Daniel Arnon first proposed the notion of a ‘grand design of photosynthesis’ in 1982 to illustrate the central role of photosynthesis as the primary energy transformer for all life on Earth. However, I suggest that this concept is also consistent with the broad impact of the chloroplast not only in global energy transformation but also in the regulation of plant growth, development and ultimately crop seed yield. I review recent data that support the important roles of chloroplast redox imbalance in governing plant acclimation to abiotic stress through localized, intracellular retrograde signal transduction pathways as well as long distance, intercellular signal transduction pathways within a single plant. We suggest that the family of nuclear C-repeat binding transcription factors (CBFs) may be critical components that link enhanced photosynthetic performance and chloroplast redox regulation with the accumulation of growth-active gibberellins,the dwarf phenotype, and increased seed yield under controlled environment conditions in overwintering cultivars in an array of plant species. We show that the controlled environment data for enhanced wheat seed yields confirm 60 years of seed yield data from the field. These data are discussed in terms of the molecular mechanism underlying the development of semi-dwarf cereals which were the basis of the green revolution of the 1960s. Based on differential seed yield data worldwide, we propose that, in the short term, the gaps in wheat seed yield between Europe, China and North America since 1964 could be reduced by increasing the area seeded with winter versus spring wheat varieties. In the long-term, exploitation of CBF overexpression by either classical plant breeding or through biotechnology may contribute to either the maintenance or perhaps even the enhancement of crop productivity under future climate change scenarios.
University of Maryland USA
Keynote: How much can aerosol alter earth’s climate: Showcases in China
Zhanqing Li: Ph.D (1991, McGill, Canada), Professor (since 2001) at Dept of Atmos. & Oceanic Sci and ESSIC at University of Maryland, and adjunct professor at Beijing Normal University. He has engaged in wide range of studies concerning climate change, atmospheric physics, terrestrial and atmospheric environment. He developed a suite of remote sensing algorithms products and systems (earth radiation budget, aerosol and cloud parameters, precipitation, fire and emissions, and terrestrial parameters etc.). He has received over 10 awards and honorsincluding the Humboldt Research Award, AGU&AAAS fellow,Yoram J. Kaufman Award, the Head of Public Service Award of Canada, the Alouette Award, etc. He has published230 articles & served as an editor ofJ. Geophy. Res., Adv. in Meteorology, etc.
Aerosol can affect the atmospheric processes in numerous ways by altering the PBL, atmospheric thermodynamics, cloud microphysics and morphology, atmospheric circulation, etc. While many mechanisms have been proposed under certain constrained conditions, it has been a challenging task to identify, understand and quantify the various effects. However, substantial and fast progresses in all the fronts have been made in the last decade or so. Increasing evidences have emerged showing the effects of aerosol on both the climate system and day to day weather are so significant that warrant consideration and accounting for in GCMs and NWPs.Few places are more ideal than China to unravel the complex relationships between weather/climate and aerosol whose loading is strong and types are diverse with strong long-term trends. I will give a brief overview of the major findings we have got over a decade of collaborative studies in China, especially following some major field experiments such as EAST-AIRE (2005), ARM Mobile Facility Deployment in China (2008), EAST-AIRc (2010), EAST-AIRcp (2013-2015), etc.
Track: Global Warming Effects and Causes
Track: Climate Change and Health
Track: Climate Change Challenges
Universities of Montreal and Guelph Canada
Title: Climate change and global food security in the face of other stressors: The challenges for agricultural transformation, adaptation and conservation
Christopher Bryant completed his PhD at the age of 24 years at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He was Professor in Geography, University of Waterloo, from 1970-1990 and then in Géographie, Université de Montréal,from 1990-2014. He is currently Adjunct Professor at the Universities of Montréal and Guelph. He has published almost 100 articles in peer-reviewd journals, over 30 books and over 150 chapters in books and has made several hundred presentations at conferences. See his Research Gate profile.
One of the most important effects of climate change and variability for human society is its impacts upon global food security, through its impacts upon agriculture and agricultural yields.In certain countries and regions, these impacts can be multiplied many times because food production resources, notably farmland, are alreadyvulnerablebecause of drought conditions. In any investigation of the effects of climate change on human activities such as agriculture and food production, it is also crucial to appreciate the multiple stresssors that these activities must contend with. In particular, even when far,land resources, including climate, are good to very good, even after the effects of climate change and variability (CCV) are taken into account, these activities near cities also often have to face continued urbanization pressures. In several developed countries, such as Canada and much of Western Europe, for instance, major cities are surrounded by good to excellent farmland resources in relatively temperate climates.Food security is also an increasingly important concern for some population seghments in these cities and there has been a growing emphasis on local and regional sources of food for these cities and these population segments.Maintaining foodproduction potential in these regions (and also to contribute to food security globally)must face some major challenges for agriculture must be transformed, must adapt to CCV and at the same time the farmland resource must be conserved. We therefore tackle, in the context of CCV, Agricultural Transformation, Adaptation and Conservation (ATAC).
Fabio Teodoro de Souza
Pontifical Catholic University of Parana Brazil
Title: A data mining approach to elucidate the relationships between air pollution and respiratory diseases in big cities
Fabio Teodoro de Souza has completed his PhD at the age of 32 years from Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ). He concluded his postdoctoral studies in 2010 at the Tsinghua University in Beijing (China). He is Professor of the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUCPR) at the Postgraduate Program in Urban Management since 2011 and member of the International Network Routes towards Sustainability since 2014. Souza is coordinator of a research project concerning air pollution and respiratory diseases financed by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development. Souza published four articles with Impact Factor > 1,4 (JCR).
The sustainability of large cities is controlled by consumption, disposal, and environmental capacity. The weather patterns have been affected by the quick growing of the cities. These imbalances imply climate changes and negative consequences to the public health. In addition, due to the explosive growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel usage, researchers emphasize the importance in improving the quantitative control of the global carbon cycle as a central element to understand the patterns and projections of climate change. It is also discussed the importance in attributing observed CO2 variations to human or natural cause. This research focuses on better understanding the relationships between air pollution and respiratory diseases. The methodology consists in applying data mining techniques on hospitalization due to respiratory diseases organized with atmospheric and urban variables. The knowledge acquired from this study - which is still in the early phase of data collection - could be useful for urban management and public health policies. Some qualitative associations between air pollutants in Curitiba and respiratory morbidity of childhood population have been discussed. Curitiba has a metropolitan area with population around 3 million. Some scientists highlighted the necessity of spreading methodological experiences from medium-size cities with relatively stable emissions to the more complex and representative environments of megacities (metropolitan areas with populations greater than 10 million). Moreover, this research should verify if the use of data mining techniques may potentially contribute to explain air pollution associated to the augment of the anthropogenic CO2 signal in urban environments of megacities.
Carlos III Institute of Health Spain
Title: Comparison of the effects of extreme temperatures on daily mortality in Madrid (Spain), by age group: The need for a cold wave prevention plan
Julio Díaz is PhD in Physical Sciences by the Complutense University. He has been Professor at the Autonomous University and Directorof Health and Environment Master. He has been published more than 150 papers in reputed journals. Since 2006 he is a head researcher atthe National School of Health.He has participated in many conferences and in various projects with both national and international lines. He is advisor to WHO on issues related to thermal extremes; external reviewer of the IPCC andCoordinator of the Group: Temperature Extremes and Atmospheric Pollution in Climate Change of the Health´s Ministry Observatory.
Researchers have shown that there is a time trend towards a reduction in the effects ofheat on mortality. In the case of cold, there is no clearly defined time trend of the impact on mortality. Furthermore, no other studies have yet analysed the impact of both thermal extremes by age group. We analysed data on daily mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10: A00-R99) in Madrid across period 2000-2009 and calculated the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality using Poisson regression models for specific age groups, namely, 1>
AOSR and Universitatea Hyperion Bucharest Romania
Title: Climate change events induced risk assessment and mapping and a potential insurance policy
Ionut PURICA, presently an Executive Director of the Advisory Center for Energy and Environment, worked as a project officer for energy and climate change in the World Bank, in Romania, as an international researcher for ENEA Rome and as an associate researcher at ICTP Trieste. He has authored books at Imperial College Press, Academic Press, etc. and published articles in journals like Risk Analysis, IEEE Power Engineering Review, etc. He took his second PhD in economics, (the first in Energy Engineering) and, is also a Professor teaching a course in Risk management to masters of science in Hyperion University.
The EU is developing and implementing a coherent climate change risk management policy stressing the need to set up insurance policies related to hazard risks. Based on recorded data series for temperature and precipitations for the last 50 years and damage data from the UNSDR and EU Solidarity Fund the risks of combined events (i.e. floods, drought, snow and freeze) are assessed for each of Romania’s counties. The risks are mapped using a tool developed in Excel and the exposure of the population is calculated (risk per capita) for each county. The conclusions are detailing the possibility to use these results to set up a hazard risk insurance policy and a supporting mitigation and adaptation fund.
Cristina Linares Gil
Carlos III Institute of Health Spain Title: Heat wave’s short term effects on vulnerable groups: Parkinson disease and pregnant women Speaker
Cristina Linares Gil is PhD in Preventive Medicine and Public Health (Autonomous University of Madrid) since 2006. She also holds a Master in Health and Environment and Master in Epidemiology Program Applied.Currently it has been awarded a contract "Miguel Servet" within the Institute of Health Carlos III and develops her career in the National School of Health. She has been published more than 100 papers in reputed journals and She is member of the Group: Temperature Extremes and Atmospheric Pollution in Climate Change of the Health´s Ministry Observatory.
People over 65 years and those with certain underlying health conditions are considered particularly susceptible to extremestemperatures,but heat has a particularly important effect in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and pregnant women, causing premature births (PTB). We analyzed and quantified the short-term effect of high temperatures during heat waves in Madrid on daily mortality and PD-related hospital admissions and PTB during 2001-2009. We used an ecological time-series design and fitted Poisson regression models. We analyzed the daily number of deaths due to PD and the number of daily PD-related emergency hospital admissions and PTB in Madrid, using maximum daily temperature (ºC) and chemical air pollution as covariates. We controlled for trend, seasonalities, and autoregressive nature.There was a maximum daily temperature of 30°C at which PD-related admissions were at a minimum. Similarly, a temperature of 34°C coincides with an increase in the number of admissions. For PD-related admissions, the Relative Risk (RR) for every increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature was 1.13 IC95%(1.03-1.23) at lags 1 and 5; and for daily PD-related mortality, the RR was 1.14 IC95%(1.0-1.28) at lag 3. Furthermore, we observed evidence of a short term effect at Lag 1, RR: 1.055 IC95% (1.018 1.092) on preterm births during the studied period.Our results indicate that suffering from PD is a risk factor that contributes to the excess morbi-mortality associated with high temperatures, so heat waves are associated with PTB and is relevant from the standpoint of public health prevention plans.
University of Minnesota USA
Title: Changes in climate, the sun, and some predictable effects on human health Speaker
Germaine Cornelissen is Professor of Department of Integrative Biology and Physiology, University of Minnesota and Director of Halberg Chronobiology Center, USA. Abstract:
The Wine and Climate Change Institute UK
Title: Water into wine: Irrigation in viticulture
Linda Johnson-Bell has been an expert wine critic, judge and author for 25 years. She has a BA in Political Sciences from Scripps College, California, and diplomas from le SciencesPo, l’Université de Paris IV la Sorbonne, l’Université de Nice and post-graduate diplomas in Law from Oxford Brookes and the University of Oxford’s OXILP. She is CEO and founder of the newly-formed Wine and Climate Change Institute, an Associate / Viticulture Resilience Expert with the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, and she is co-producing the TV documentary based on her most recent book Wine and Climate Change: Winemaking in a New World.
When vitisvinifera is grown outside its indigenous regions, irrigation is necessary. 99% of the water used in wine-making is for irrigation. In fact, irrigation is viticulture’s number one Adaptation ally, whilst it is Mitigation’s number one foe. Climatologists love wine. The grapeis the crop most susceptible to changes in climate, and its migration patterns serve as models for future climate scenarios. The Water Footprint Network reports that it takes 29 gallons (131 litres) of water for a glass of wine (comprising blue, green and grey waters). This calculation would have taken into account the type and frequency of irrigation, planting density, type of rootstock, trellising style, soil properties, varietal and a vineyard’s temperatures, wind and sun exposure. It is interesting then, that this thirsty $30 billion international industry and its water crisis has not come into more focus. An agricultural crop like any other, wine grapes rarely feature in discussions of water competition when in fact, there are regions where local water licenses are allocated to wineries rather than to agricultural crops and livestock. With more erratic harvest conditions existing within increasing temperatures (weather vs climate), the majority of the world’s viticulturists are under threat from drought. This presentation is concerned with investigating the comparative use of blue water (irrigation) amongst the principal wine regions: techniques employed; resulting yield ratios (on average, irrigated yields are larger than rain-fed yields which can skewer the footprint calculation); and examines the industry’s adaption methods in the context of EU appellation policy.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS China
Title: The initial errors most likely to cause a “Spring Predictability Barrier” for two types of El Nino events Speaker
Wansuo Duan has completed his PhD at the age of 30 years from Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). He is the Deputy director of State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LASG, IAP, CAS. He has published more than 70 papers in reputed journals and has been serving as an editorial board member of the journal “Advances in Atmospheric Sciences”.
After 1990s, a new type of El Nino events i.e. Central-Pacific El Nino events, occurs frequently, which possesses the warm center in central Pacific and is different from the traditional Eastern-Pacific El Nino events with warm center in tropical eastern Pacific. These two types of El Nino events severely affect weather and climate but in a different manner. It is therefore important to predict the onset of the two types of El Nino events. In this paper, the spring predictability barrier (SPB) problem for two types of El Niño events is investigated. This is enabled by tracing the evolution of a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) that acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Niño predictions. We show that the CNOP-type errors for Central Pacific-El Niño (CP-El Niño) events can be classified into two types: the first are CP-type-1 errors possessing a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and accompanied by a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the equator. The second are, CP-type-2 errors presenting an SSTA pattern in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, with a dipole structure of negative anomalies in the east and positive anomalies in the west, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with a slight deepening along the equator. CP-type-1 errors grow in a manner similar to an Eastern Pacific-El Niño (EP-El Niño) event and grow significantly during boreal spring, leading to a significant SPB for the CP-El Niño. CP-type-2 errors initially present as a process similar to a La Niña-like decay, prior to transitioning into a growth phase of an EP-El Niño-like event; but they fail to cause a SPB. For the EP-El Niño events, the CNOP-type errors are also classified into two types: EP-type-1 errors and 2 errors. The former is similar to a CP-type-1 error, while the latter presents with an almost opposite pattern. Both EP-type-1 and 2 errors yield a significant SPB for EP-El Niño events. For both CP- and EP-El Niño, their CNOP-type errors that cause a prominent SPB are concentrated in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This may indicate that the prediction uncertainties of both types of El Niño events are sensitive to the initial errors in this region. The region may represent a common sensitive area for the targeted observation of the two types of El Niño events. Implenenting the additional observation in this senstive area would be helpful for predicting which type of El Nino occurs.
P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS Russia
Title: Assessing changes of water balance components in the Lena river basin in connection with possible climate changes
Yeugeniy Gusev has completed his PhD at the age of 33 years from Agrophisical Institute (St.-Peterburg, then has completed Dr.Sci. at the age of 45 years from Moscow State University and works in the area of hydrology, hydrometeorology, soil science, plant physiology, etc. He is the head of Soil Water Physics Laboratory. He has published more than 150 papers in reputed journals 3 monographs, is the member of an editorial boards of two scientific journals, have several national and international awards.
The possibility of using the land surface model SWAP for forecasting runoff of the Lena river (Siberia, Russia) in the face of climate change in the basin was evaluated. First, the performance of the SWAP model was tested for the reference period (1967-1999) on the basis of the data of hydrometeorological observations. Then, for four climatic SRES family IPCC scenarios, the dynamics of three-hour values of prognostic meteorological data until 2065 in the basin of the river Lena was calculated. Using the obtained evolutions of the meteorological data, the dynamics of components of the water balance for the Lena river basin was calculated to 2065. It was shown that the implementation of all four climate scenarios by mid-XXI century leads to increase of the precipitation and evapotranspiration averaged over the basin. River runoff decreases, but very slightly. Quantitative differences between the results obtained for four climate scenarios were relatively small. The maps of the spatial distribution of the water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff) in the Lena river basin for reference period (1967-1990) and their changes for one of the SRES climate scenarios, namely scenario B1, for the period 2039-2065 (prediction period) were constructed. On the maps the specifics of changes in different components of the water balance in different parts of Lena river basin is reflected.
Nazan Koluman Darcan
Cukurova University Turkey
Title: Impacts of climate change on animal farming in the Mediterranean region
Nazan Koluman Darcan is a Professor in Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Animal Science And Breeding, Cukurova University, Turkey. Her research interests are Global warming and climate change, Animal Science, sheep, Animal Welfare, Ethics and Behavior, Animal Science and Animal Nutrition. She has compelted her Ph.D in animal science from Cukurova University in the year of 2000.
Extreme climate change (CC) and atmospheric events have been become nowadays a global issue. Livestock production contributes to global warming. It is estimated that livestock responsible to 9% of human- welded CO2 emission, 35-40% of CH4 emission, 65% of N2O emission and 64 % of NH3 emission. In addition, CC (increase in high temperature and drought) has been found to adversely affect livestock production. Consequently, a lot of effort is made to adjust livestock production systems to forecast on future changes in weather according to climate modeling. From this point of view, it is very important that the correct estimation will be made with regard to questions, such as which feed, or which goat breed will be found as most appropriate for different regions. The economic importance of farm animals’ production has been rise-up during last decades in Mediterranean countries. The effect of climatic change (CC) on dairy production are both direct through effects on the animals themselves, and indirect through effects on production of crops and increased exposure to pests and pathogens (Gauly et al., 2013). These negative impacts occur in face of increasing demands for food, which is related to increase in population on earth (Godfray and Garnett, 2014). The demand for animal products relate to rapid increase in income in some countries (Haq and Ishaq, 2011) and the perception of dairy products as high quality and gourmet food (Silanikove et al., 2010). On the other hand, there is an increased awareness to the contribution of livestock to the greenhouse effect, and hence to global warming.The animal production systems and concept of climate change which are in mutual interaction with each other has recently become a popular subject on the agenda. In this review the direct and indirect of climate change on farm animals in Mediterranean region will be determined.
Sejong University Korea
Title: Development of an uncertainty reduction method for climate change impact assessment on high dam inflow Speaker
Moon-Hwan Lee has completed his Ph.D at the age of 33 years from Sejong University, Seoul, Korea. He is Post-doctoral researcher in Sejong University. He has published 2 SCI papers and various Korean journal papers related to climate change and water resources area.
Water availability in a region is one of the most important factors to determine the quality of human life and the availability can be changed spatially and temporally due to the impact of climate change. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of change in water availability and appropriate water resources management measures are needed for corresponding adaptation strategies. However, there are high uncertainties in climate change impact assessment on water resources. In this reason, the development of technology to evaluate and reduce the uncertainties quantitatively is required. The objectives of this study are to develop the uncertainty reduction method for climate change impact assessment and to access the uncertainties of future projection for dam inflow in Chungju dam basin in South Korea. The 5 RCMs (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and RSM), 5 statistical post-processing methods (SPP) and 2 hydrological models (HYM) were used in this study. As results, the RCMs with relatively lower simulation ability in past historical observation events had the higher uncertainty in future projection results. Therefore, RCMs with lower historical simulation ability and higher uncertainty should be excluded for the evaluation of future projections. Also, the statistical post-processing methods that cause higher uncertainty should be excluded because these methods distort the original climate change information. Through this research, the guidelines for constituting the modules for GCM downscaling and hydrologic model are supplied for the reliable climate change impact assessment and the study results in the application area are provided in this study.
Vytautas Magnus University Lithuania
Title: Tree’s spring phenology in Lithuania response to recent and projected climate Speaker
Since 2013 I am Ph.D. student of Environmental Sciences. My field of interest - Past and Future Changes in Phenology under Changing Climate Conditions. Future projections of phenology is very interesting, but very challenging part of these studies. Therefore last year I did internship at Humboldt University of Berlin learning more about phenological modelling from my supervisor Dr. F. Chmielewski. Now I am doing my internship at Acadia National Park (Maine, USA) working on some experimental project with Dr. Abraham Miller-Rushing. I investigate chilling importance for the different trees species spring phenology and try to incorporate physiological data to the models.
The analysis of long-term data of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species showed that leaf unfolding for all investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April illustrating that forcing temperature is the main driver of spring phenology. The most notable - 12.7 days over the investigated 58 year period, advancement in leaf unfolding was detected for early season species birch. The least advancement in leaf unfolding - 9.4 days over was detected for maple, 10.3 and 10.4 days advancement - for lime and oak respectively. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three different Global Circulation Models has shown that under the pesimistic climate change scenario - RCP 2.6, the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 Co, and under the pesimistic scenario – RCP 8.5, by 5.03 Co until the end of the 21st century. Recently, different statistical models are used to analyze and to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100) climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species; 9 days for lime, 10 days for oak and 11 days for maple.
Yongqin David Chen
The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong
Title: Faster increase in apparent temperature under climate warming Speaker
Yongqin David Chen is a Professor of the Department of Geography and Resource Management at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research and teaching areas include hydrology and water resources management, meteorology and climatology, environmental assessment and modeling, and regional development. In recent years his research activities have focused on hydrologic impacts of global climate change and regional land-use alteration, low-flow hydrology in the Pearl River basin, hydrologic changes in the Pearl River Delta, and urban water management in Hong Kong, and strategic environmental assessment in China.
Apparent temperature, an indicator of temperature human perceives, is mainly determined by air temperature, humidity and wind speed. Global warming indicated by increasing air temperature alters climatic and hydrologic circulations, and hence changes humidity and wind speed, which jointly influence apparent temperature. Here we study the global changes in apparent temperature and compare these changes with air temperature to investigate how human feels about continuous global warming. Results show that under climate warming, apparent temperature increases faster than air temperature. This phenomenon is especially remarkable in the tropics and subtropics and under high emission scenario. During 1981-2000, apparent temperature in the tropics is 0-4oC higher than air temperature, and then increases to 3-6oC higher during 2081-2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The apparent temperature in the tropics is projected to reach > 35oC, implying severe health impacts. Continental average of apparent temperature is 1.5oC lower than air temperature in 2000, and turns to 0.25oC higher by the end of 21st century. The faster increment in apparent temperature is a combined effect of stronger heat stress and weaker cooling effect caused by increasing air temperature with negligible changes in relative humidity and wind speed.
Nguyen Van Kien
An Giang University Vietnam
Title: The values and recovery progress of floating rice-based agro-ecological systems for adaptation to climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
Kien Van Nguyen is a Luc Hoffmann Research Institute (LHI) research fellow at the Australian National University. He involves in the navigating the nexus of food-water-energy. Kien Van Nguyen took his PhD in sociology at the ANU in 2012 with the support of an Australian Leadership Award from the Australian government. He has more than ten years’ experience in teaching and researching environmental issues in the Mekong River Delta and has presented his work at many international and national conferences on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, and conservation now the main focus of his research interests. Kien has received several research grants from international research and academic institutions. Kien is the Director of Research Center for Rural Development of An Giang University, Vietnam.
People have a long tradition of living with the floods in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta by harvesting the floating rice. This floating rice-based agro-ecological system exploited seasonal floods for rural livelihoods until 1980s. In 1974, there were 0.5 million hectares of the floating rice in the VMD, but by 2013, this dropped to 50 hectares (ha), found in Vinh Phuoc and Luong An Tra communes of Tri Ton district in An Giang province. Recognition of the important ecological, economic and cultural values of this floating rice-based agro-ecological system, Research Center for Rural Development (RCRD) of An Giang University has co-designed with local farmers, private sectors and local authorities to initiate a series of research and development outreach activities which aims to help rural communities to restore this valuable geneses as well as ecosystem services for improving rural livelihoods and adaptation to climate change. After operating these research and development activities for two years, we found that behaviours of different stakeholders have changed positively towards this recovery activity. Policy makers recognized the opportunity costs of this system in comparison with intensification of rice, from two to three crops, changed their attitudes toward profitability rather than production. Significantly, the market price of the floating rice was improved by double, giving incentives for farmers to return to the floating rice. More importantly, this system allow farmers to adapt well to floods and droughts because floating rice can elongate well with the flood condition, while farmers can save water for irrigating upland crops thank to the thick layers of rice remaining straws. This paper provides the quantitative economic and ecological values of the floating rice-based agro-ecological systems, describes the co-design participatory processes of floating rice recovery in the Mekong Delta, and suggests avenue for adaptation to climate change in the future.
Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar
Lund University Sweden
Title: Climate change impact assessment on artificial wetlands
Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar is a Manufacturing Engineer. She has completed 4 Masters, 4 Specializations and multiple short courses in various engineering and management fields worldwide. She is a PhD candidate at Lund University in Sweden under the supervision of Dr Magnus Persson. She has participated as speaker in various conferences around the world for many years. She has published various papers in topics such as agriculture, remote sensing, modelling and land use optimization, among others. She has been a consultant for various companies in Colombia and at international level. She has been also widely involved in social work and sustainable development.
Remote sensing has been widely used for determining climate changes characteristics, also in wetland studies. Aster images from 2002 and 2008 demonstrated that the water surface in a wetland located at Guasca Municipality in Colombia increased from 3934 m2 to 126403 m2 respectively at 15 m resolution. Modis images 13A3 allowed calculation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on a monthly basis from June to November 2008 with a resolution of 1 km. The results showed how variables such as Net Radiation, Temperature and Rain explained 83 percent of the NDVI monthly changes (data obtained from the meteorological stations HOBO and Campbell placed close to the wetland). In addition, Potential Evapotranspiration was calculated with formulas and compared with the ILWIS software with similar results with averages of 7.7 mm/day. Groundwater level fluctuations on a daily basis were studied as well as data from a piezometer placed next to the wetland during the same time period. Data was fitted with Rain changes with multiple regression analysis and time series, with R2 of 0.98. Groundwater temperature and conductivity changes were also analysed, no significant changes over the studied time were noticed. However, conductivity changes were influenced by NDVI, Rain and Evapotranspiration with polynomial fittings greater than 90%. November was characterized by increasing NDVI, meaning that more agriculture took place. Agricultural runoff could increase conductivity due to additional phosphate and nitrate ions. Surface water quality analysis was performed to determine the possible contaminants. The results show that coliforms were the most significant contaminant.
City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong
Title: Climate change as a challenge to indigenous food security
Pooja Pant has complete her PhD in July 2015 from City University of Hong Kong. Her PhD thesis is focused on understanding the interrelation and inter-linkage of households’ livelihood system, food security system and climate change in rural area in Far Western Nepal. She is currently involved in local NGOs in Nepal and other research works.
The challenges of the climate change are multifaceted and play an important role in exacerbating the existing problems. One of such problems is food security. Achieving food security for ever increasing population growth is one of the top most priority of the states and researchers all over the world. Crop failure, drying of water bodies, reduced availability of wild food, and loss of livestock due to diseases and other climate related hazards are likely to be more severe with rising anomaly in the world climate. Thus with changing climate, the challenges for achieving world food security is also becoming bigger. It is more precarious to the people who are already poor and are struggling with existing food security problem. Hence, in order to tackle the problem of food security and cope with the adversities, in depth understanding of impacts of climate change on food security is indispensable. This is a significant way to identify best adaptation strategies for communities to achieve food security in the present climate change scenario. This paper analyses how food security of the households in a rural community in Far West Nepal is affected by climate change. It particularly focuses on the food security challenges posed by climate change in food habit of different indigenous communities in a rural society. This paper will explore how indigenous communities try to cope with the adversities posed by climate change. The data were collected using Participatory Rural Appraisal method and household surveys.
York and Ryerson Universities Canada
Title: The limitations of social marketing in climate change communication: A case study of the suitability of social marketing for achieving the Caribbean’s low carbon economy goal
Tyrone Hall currently holds the prestigious Ontario Trillium Scholarship in the joint York and Ryerson Universities PhD programme in Communication and Culture. His graduate work concerns environmental policy and politics, particularly climate change communication. Hall holds a masters in International Development from Clark University in Massachusetts, USA, where he held the Compton International Fellowship in Environment and Sustianable Development. Hall previously managed the communications portfolio for 19 climate change projects across a dozen Caribbean islands. He’s now a communications advisor to the regional climate change body, as well as creator and editor of Caribbean Climate, the premier climate change blog in the Caribbean.
Increasingly, climate change communication practitioners are applying social marketing techniques— more widely associated with piecemeal change in the health and lifestyle sectors— to tackle systemic challenges associated with climate change. Given the limited resources available to tackle this multidimensional phenomenon and the narrow window of opportunity for action, there is great need for effective praxis. This paper takes a key step in this direction by critically examining the utility of applying social marketing —“technologies developed in the commercial sector to solve social problems” —to realize the Caribbean’s low carbon economy goal (Andreasen, 1995, p3). The paper contemplates the orientation of change needed to achieve this goal, and the limitations and strengths of social marketing in enabling the individual, social and political changes necessary for its fruition. It critiques the assumptions embedded in the marketing mix —the core of the social marketing approach—including its fixation on the individual rather than collective, which limits the nature of change that is possible. The paper reveals that though transtheoretical, social marketing is in great need of augmentation to be suitable for the realization of climate change goals. The paper posits a more progressive approach premised on three principles to ensure sustainable change: 1) appealing to a deeper ethos rather than consumerist ethics (price, gratifications); 2) a guiding principle that connects mundane individual actions to the broader challenge to stabilize segmented outcomes (change) and; 3) strengthening the role of communication to be primarily one of empowerment (improving self-efficacy). These principles are recommended alongside reformulated education programmes. These augmentations are advanced within a socio-ecological framework crafted for climate change social marketing to yield scalable change across domains.
Walter Sisulu University South Africa
Title: Assessing impacts of climate change on rural water resources. Case study of Cibeni village, Eastern Cape, South Africa
Moyo Ntandoyenkosi has completed Bachelor of Science degree in Environmental science at the age of 22 years from Walter Sisulu University in South Africa and is now pursuing honors degree looking at the impacts of climate change on rural water resources. He is the tutor in the department of environmental science, tutoring atmosphere and terrain analysis. He attended a habitable planet workshop in Cape Town focusing on climate change issues.
Majority of rural Eastern Cape villages of South Africa households do not have access to safe water supply. Due to changes in climatic conditions for example higher temperatures, these sources become not reliable in supplying adequate and safe water to the population. These rural populations due to the drying up of water resources have to find other alternative ways to get water. Climate change has an impact on the reliability of water resources and this has an impact on rural communities. This study seeks to establish what alternative ways do people use when affected by unfavorably conditions like less rainfall and increased temperatures. The study also seeks to investigate any local and provincial intervention in the provision of water to the village. Interventions can be in the form of programmes or initiatives that involve water supply strategies. The community should participate fully in making sure that their place is serviced. The study will identify households with improved sources (JOJO tanks) and those with unimproved sources (rivers) and investigate what alternatives they resort to when their sources dry up. The study also investigate community views on whether they have any challenges of water supply (reliability and adequacy) as required by section 27(1) (b) of the constitution which states that everyone should have ac