*From January 2016

With the Iowa Caucus coming up quickly on Monday, presidential candidates are scrambling to get themselves ahead in the polls. The caucus is the first in the series and generally a good way of determining the outcome of the rest of the GOP nomination trial. In the past, this caucus has done an excellent job of predicting not only who will win the republican but the democratic nomination as well. For example, in 2004 the Iowa caucus had Secretary of State John F. Kerry as the front runner and he did, in fact, continue on to win the democratic nomination. This is also where the state gets a general idea of how many voters will turn out as well as how they are voting which the state can then publicize to the media and allow for campaigns to gear their focus in certain areas.

It is important to know that a caucus is different than a Primary Election. While New Hampshire has a law that they must be the first to hold a primary election, Iowa is able to hold the first caucus. A caucus is a series of small gathering voting for a candidate as opposed to in a primary where there is statewide secret voting. Local gatherings get together to demonstrate their support in a caucus as opposed to a primary election where the support is looked at on a more statewide level and individuals are not encouraged to openly show support for a candidate.

The February 4th caucus will help determine which candidates will be sent to the convention in Cleveland. Not only this caucus but others as well help to predict the winner of the nomination which is why they are so important to not only pay attention to but participate in as well. Presidential candidates basically set up camp in Iowa before the caucus because they know just how important the outcome of this event is. Ever since 1976 when Jimmy Carter had a sweeping lead in Iowa because of dedicating a year to the grassroots campaign, candidates have paid close attention to this caucus and to the environmental issues that tend to dominate the ideas.

The time leading up is where real-life, everyday citizens get to voice their opinions to the candidates and have conversations with them as opposed to just listening to their speeches. This is very important for candidates because here is where they can get a general idea of the ideas from particular areas in the state. If they hear more Iowa citizens expressing concern over a particular aspect then they will know to address that to the majority.  The caucuses are not necessarily written in stone predictors of the election but they do set a general tone for the campaign trail.

Currently, it is looking like Donald Trump is shooting ahead of his competitors due to his appeal to the conservative Christian minority in the state. If it is Trump that wins, this will change the history of politics in the state considering Senator Ted Cruz supports ending the ethanol mandate which is important to a state where corn is a major crop.

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