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Belarus

Update: 30AUG2020 So it seems like the protests are continuing. I'm not sure where the men with guns stand (that is, the Belarusian police as well as the bear, Putin) or if they're going to keep pushing back at this movement. We'll have to see. One can see in the US where people are extremely dismissive towards anti-racist protestors and perhaps the more authoritarian parts of Belarus see these grassroots protests as such. 

As it stands, Putin has police on stand by if the situation gets out of control. (which he says includes occupying administrative buildings, which, I might add, are valid forms of protest but which we in the United States usually try to crack down on as well... the right definitely does, but others do too). Not sure what to say to that. I sense Putin sees this as a legitimate homegrown movement. But perhaps he doesn't see so much validity to it. (also their crackdown seems much less violent than the ones we see here in the US). 


Also trying to see what the election tampering was all about and I have seen a few (specific things, unlike Bolivia) but there haven't been so many cases presented. Still, I'll lean towards them having a better case (especially compared to Bolivia)


28Aug2020:

Mainly, I'd like to see some evidence based reports that people have. Please don't just screenshot some tweet, as that's rarely been helpful IMO. I want actual reports. Hopefully from non-US news sources, especially the MSM, but I'll be willing to read those as well. Al Jazeera's reporting seems to point to opposition protests being much larger than any counter demonstrations. 

Of course, given that Belarus isn't our ally, we can expect the usual (hypocritical) statements from the likes of the State Dept and Pompeo, but does that mean something entirely nefarious is going on there. I don't doubt, for example, that there are some western groups there, but that doesn't mean they aren't tapping into something legit. Also much of this seems different than the violence (mixed with a few protests) that started the coup in Bolivia. Also this Aljazeera article discusses Armenia as a possible example for Belarus.

Edit: Here's an LRB post with some good additions:

It appears that his initial reaction was something he had done before to previous protests. And something that worked for him before as well. 

"His initial response to suggestions of vote-rigging was characteristically ruthless. Protests were met by water cannon, rubber bullets and stun grenades, and three demonstrators were killed. As more than seven thousand people were taken into custody, social media were flooded with accounts and images of torture. Lukashenko wasn’t defiant in the face of the resistance so much as dismissive. His adversaries were either criminals or unemployed, he said. Insofar as they reflected a genuine threat, it was only because they were ‘sheep’ under the direction of shadowy foreign powers."

This part is interesting as the post does not mention even the possibility of "foreign powers". Nevertheless, it's the initial reaction after the violence against the protestors that seems to have taken many by surprise.

"As the unrest spread, high-profile figures including TV presenters, the rector of the national university and members of the Minsk Philharmonic Orchestra have sided with the protesters. Last Friday, the interior minister apologised for arresting too many ‘random people’, and the OMON riot squads he controls suddenly vanished from the streets. "

And the reaction of the people towards the violence was to show up in even larger numbers. 

"on Sunday, Belarus experienced the largest demonstrations in its history."

Lukashenko remained, though:

"Inertia may yet be the president’s saviour, and Belarus’s formidable security apparatus is built on powerful personal allegiances. Lukashenko’s departure is becoming at least imaginable, however. On a visit to the Minsk Tractor Works on Monday morning, intended to counter opposition calls for a general strike, Lukashenko sounded both agitated and vulnerable – mortal, even. Heckled repeatedly, he insisted there would be no re-run of the election ‘until you kill me’. As he stormed off, the workers chanted ‘Resign!’"

Putin, however, is what matters:

"The elephant in the room – or perhaps the bear – is Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader has long been wary of Lukashenko: the Belarusian president has always been a little too fond of playing political footsie with Brussels and Washington, and doesn’t consider Putin (in power for a mere twenty years) his superior. But though Russia’s president would prefer a pliant stooge, he can’t afford to see his neighbour toppled. "

But he didn't start by doing much:

"Aware that his options are limited, Putin has so far acted with restraint. Though he was quick to congratulate Lukashenko on his re-election (only Xi Jinping was quicker) and to warn EU leaders against ‘meddling’, the Kremlin’s official line is that those ‘problems that have arisen’ will sort themselves out."

Since then, Lukashenko has raised the specter of another "color revolution" and this has triggered Putin into some kind of action. 

"The rivalry between the two leaders is clearly on hold – and now that it’s them against the world, their dysfunctional relationship may even get back on track."

Also, it seems that many are against calling this a color revolution of any sort:

"I casually asked my new acquaintances what their revolution would be called, if it had a colour. They reacted as though stung. It didn’t have any colour, they said. It wasn’t even a revolution."

Not a bad take. Will add more as I get them. Please feel free to do the same, or take apart some of these assumptions as well.


So basically, my view is that this all points to an entirely legit protest movement. I sense even if some American (re state department type of groups) funding is behind some of it, there is legitimate anger at the regime. Also, unlike Bolivia, where it was a small protest backed by (right wing militias) very strong mob violence that pushed for a coup (the military being involved), we have something different here. 28AUG2020


This is ongoing, so please add your thoughts when you can or links to good information on the situation there. 


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This post first appeared on Nelson Lowhim; Writer's Muse, please read the originial post: here

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